guys... this is interesting to read... Nike said its futures orders, which reflect products scheduled for delivery from September through January of next year, rose 5% on a global basis, below the increase of 9% a year earlier and the 8% growth logged for the previous quarter. Futures orders are closely watched by investors as a benchmark for demand for Nike products.
Will we see a scenario that Prlexus is done with the expansion plan (new factories all set up) but Nike (as the major customer) reduce the orders in 2017...
even if Q4 posted a good results in these few days... we may still think twice about the future of Prlexus due to the slower growth of Nike and other apparels companies... it is because that other contractors for Nike (like Magni, etc) are also expanding and it may cause over-supply in the next few years if Nike's growth is very slow...
that's d risk of a company with a single largest client taking huge chunk of revenue. but looking at their relationship with nike for all d years. there is chances that nike would take in their capacity due to the quality of products that they can deliver.
even growth of nike slow, it is still growing and they got to choose to buy from which supplier
Looks like stocks investment worldwide are now dominated by short-term traders who look for instant returns, Nike share prices which have already fallen 11% this year, fell 4.4% further, despite EPS grow from 67¢ to 73¢ or +9% and +7.7% increase in revenues.
Don't forget this future orders +7% increase (minus USD currency appreciation effect) is actually compounded from the growth of 17% a year earlier! To USD denominated exporters like Prolexus, it means +7% growth, plus USD appreciation effect would contribute very positively to their profit margin, in contrary to the USD strength's negative impact on USD-based companies like Nike...
In the real insdustries, their top management team are often faced with tough Catch-22 problems, if their business grow faster than their factory production, what should they do? They can either fold their arms and sit on their laurels doing nothing and let the orders slide to their competitors, or invest to increase their capacities to seize the opportunities for more orders later.
But real factories need time to build, and finances need time to source, so they can't look at growth on Quarterly basis, it should be on yearly basis minimum, or even 5-yearly long-term basis. Unfortunately nobody own a crystal ball that can accurately predict the 5-year future. So they can either use short-term solutions like outsourcing to rely on other producers, or make the bold move to build new factories to expand their capacity. Which solution is better? Only time will tell...
When the orders slow down, and the principals have the luxury to choose their suppliers, who would they prefer? Will they choose suppliers who have vertically integrated manufacturing facilities with better quality assurance, at lower costs, better and faster delivery reliability, who have long-term relations with them. Or will they still go for suppliers who outsource their production to third parties with more uncertainties of outcome?
Who would want to build new factories if the eventual winners are always those who don't need factories and rely on others to produce? Lately, Berjaya bosses have sold off their substantial shareholdings in MagniTech, can this provide a clue to this outcome? Vincent Tan is well-known as a shrewd long-term investor...
iloveshares128, do you have any insights on Berjaya's decision to cash out from MagniTech?
Hopefully, if based on conservatively PE10x, the Fair Price should be about Rm1.70. If based on forward PE 2017 with their forecasted growth, it should be even higher...
as long as sales for Nike apparel division is increasing,,,,no worry for this stock,,,but one thing is that D management is not so promising,,,so trade at your own risk
Agreed with you, in fact, Prolexus-WA should deserve higher premium, around 25-30%, that's what we should get based on Black-Scholes Theory (instead of some ballpark figures made from some Black-Hole's assumptions... :-) ).
This is because the WA has a good "Gearing Ratio" of 2.5~3x with long 4.75 years period to maturity, and the mother share is a growth stock with an average annual growth rates of 15~20% for the past few years, and this growth trend, in the professional views of the Company's BOD, will continue in the foreseeable future. This trend is also stated by Life1nvest's article in i3 yesterday:
Prolexus share prices go up slow and steady nowadays, it means that real investors are buying in slowly. This is surely better than go up fast and down also fast like a flash in the pan, which is mainly due to day-traders and contra-players. Check up the list of their 30 biggest shareholders, most of them are held by trust funds, these are usually long-term investors.
The next Q results should also be promising, as the USD/RM Exchange rates is getting stronger and the trend should continue. The Rio Olympic-2016 in August month should generate more interests in Sports worldwide after that, this should help boost up the sales of sports wears, and this should benefit Prolexus sales and profits.
This article is about the shoemaking industry... But of course in the last paragraphs it also mentioned that in the next 20 years, all labor intensive industries will face the same fate.
This depends mainly on Initial Capital Costs vs Labour Costs, if the initial capital outlay plus interests costs for automatic production is higher than manually with cheap labor costs, then the process of automation will not happen until labor costs increase to uncompetitive levels. This may take many years as the labor costs in the New Emerging Economies (eg., Vietnam, Cambodia, Phillipine, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, etc.) are still competitive and in abundance.
The same cannot be said on Taiwan, where their wages are not cheap and it has a limited labor force. Hence we cannot draw a parallel conclusion on Taiwan vs the others.
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Posted by iloveshare128 > 2016-08-24 14:02 | Report Abuse
the share price is plunging recently... R40s, any insights for such fall?