Armada is at silly prices and wont be surprised if it even hits a transient 40 sen ( panic selling ) ; with cashflow yields on song am backing up the truck for the long haul
In the mid 2010s, Bumi Armada performance deteriorated due to the low crude oil prices. It had to re-organized itself and the company's performance over the past few years had improved.
There were improving gross profitability and contribution margins over the past few years. Its facilities are operating at high utilization levels. It had also improved its financial position. But this is a Group whose performance is tied to the expenditure of the oil and gas companies. This in turn is tied to crude oil prices.
Crude oil prices are cyclical and I do not expect the current high prices to continue forever. So when crude prices decline, I would expect Bumi Armada performance to follow suit. If you are a long-term investor, you should be looking at this performance over the cycle rather than just the current performance.
The selloff in global oil markets on perceived bad economic news was overdone because demand remains strong, according to top crude exporter Saudi Aramco.
Almost all my stock have recovered from the Japan Carry Trade Dip. One exception is Armada. Greedy Gary has committed to strategy of NO NEW PROJECTS and strong focus on green anouncements, the type of zero carbon or CO2 capture and more ladies in the office. This sure does not work out for shareholders.
Gary has run the ship into the ground, no doubt. There will be a one or two awards in the coming weeks/months, but they will not be FPSO contracts, which is the bread and butter of the company.
Bumi Armada is expected to register a core net profit increase in the second quarter of its financial year ended June 30, 2024 (2Q24), spurred by improving income
Some not-so-good-news. I am on the Navigator Gas investor call.
CEO says that there is a lot of uncertainty with regards to Bluestreak CO2's MOU with Uniper. It;s uncertain when it happens, and even if it does, it will most likely be pushed to the end of this decade.
However, there is potential to secure other CO2 projects sooner within the next 1-2 years.
Bumi Armada Berhad ("BAB") refers to the unrated Sukuk Issuance programme established in 2014 by Bumi Armada Capital Malaysia Sdn Bhd ("BACM"), its wholly owned subsidiary, involving the issuance of RM1.5 billion nominal value Sukuk by BACM ("Sukuk"). The Sukuk has a final redemption date of 4 September 2024.
BAB wishes to announce that its wholly owned subsidiary, Bumi Armada Holdings Labuan Ltd ("BAHLL"), has secured syndicated facilities with 6-year tenor at an aggregate principal amount of up to USD400 million. These comprise a USD135 million conventional syndicated term loan and a USD265 million Islamic syndicated commodity Murabahah facility (collectively, "Facilities"), the proceeds of which are to be applied inter alia, towards the full redemption of the Sukuk and its related cross currency and interest rate hedge liabilities. The Facilities, which are guaranteed by BAB, were arranged by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, RHB Bank (L) Ltd, AmInvestment Bank Berhad and Affin Islamic Bank Berhad as mandated lead arrangers ("Arrangers") and made available to BAHLL by 8 participating banks ("Financiers").
On 15 August 2024, BAHLL entered into the relevant Facilities documentation with, inter alia, the Arrangers and the Financiers. Utilisation of the Facilities, and the Sukuk redemption, are expected to occur immediately prior to 4 September 2024. BAB notes that the Facilities were oversubscribed.
What good is secured financing, even oversubscribed if there are NO NEW PROJECTS going back 10 years. Greedy Gary will be throwing money out of the HO windows as there is no way to burn it through contracts, or any other normal way ?
Sadly, suspect this is for the long haul and it appears in transition away from fossil fuels and has not become the typical tomorrow stock. There seems not much point even if we scream from the rafters and go blue in our faces I doubt much attention is paid to us retail investors. If the kitchen is too hot one might as well bite the bullet as I think this mob is for the long haul. So it is well and dandy shooting Gary the messenger but the pivot is AK himself who is answerable for the misery laden on us the retailers , some of whom have fallen in love with it.
Bumi Armada Berhad ("BAB") refers to the unrated Sukuk Issuance programme established in 2014 by Bumi Armada Capital Malaysia Sdn Bhd ("BACM"), its wholly owned subsidiary, involving the issuance of RM1.5 billion nominal value Sukuk by BACM ("Sukuk"). The Sukuk has a final redemption date of 4 September 2024.
cut the crap. 2014 take 1.4b loan/sukuk, what happen to the revenue and profit? Now need to borrow to pay for the $1.4b sukuk? This type of kok-pen-rape transaction, even a cow can do Lets see 2 years from now , if it will be penny 5c stock
That is normal to borrow, who run a business doesn't need to borrow money? Moreover, Armada only have high profit on 2021 and 2022, you ask them to reduce their cash to pay sukuk? Do you know what happen if a company lack of cash?
Since they have had no new project for 10 years, they should pay off debts rather than looking for new money. Or do you believe it is normal to borrow for day to day operations ?
I'm not supporting armadx, but have some question that is not clear If the management got problem why shareholder didn't pull down greedy Gary? Why they still able to borrow money since no new project for 10 years? Lender didn't scare their money unable to receive? If so disappointed on this stock why don't leave it alone and looking for a potential stock. Don't fall in love with stock.
USD400 million -USD135 million conventional syndicated term loan - USD265 million Islamic syndicated commodity Murabahah facility (collectively, "Facilities"), the proceeds of which are to be applied inter alia, towards the full redemption of the Sukuk and its related cross currency and interest rate hedge liabilities. 135+265 = 400, they didn't mention use for day to day operation.
Normal to borrow because they didn't have high profit from 2014 to 2023 except 2021 and 2022. Impossible they used up 2021 and 2022 profit to pay off the debt then there will be a high risk of facing cash flow problem, maintain high cash flow is good for a company.
My impression on Armada is that the current share price reflect that the company will not be able to secure any more new project going forward and therefore will no longer be a viable business. In other words, if the company is to closed down today, this is about 5-10% discount to what it can salvage. If you believe this to be the case, then the price is fair value.
I personally believe the company is still able to secure new FPSO project. AND there is potential to venture into new businesses such as LNG, carbon capture, exploration & production.
I believe current shareholder shares my view otherwise they would have sold out and move on.
Company needs cash for projects. You get favorable term when you are not desperate. The fact that they are securing new loan reflects that the management thinks there is potential projects coming. I would be more skeptical if they were to pay down all the debt with their current cash holding (~900million as of last quarter).
Guys the loan is to refinance existing debt. It will be repaid from the cash flow from existing projects, mainly from Olombendo FPSO which is on firm charter until 2030.
Previous quarter CEO comment: Commenting on the results, Mr. Gary Christenson, Chief Executive Officer of Bumi Armada said, ”This is a solid start to the year. I'm pleased we’ve continued to operate safely. We remain vigilant in ensuring the stable operation of our vessels which drives our financial performance. We continue to seek new projects and opportunities while maintaining our focus on safety, ESG, operational excellence and financial discipline."
Latest quarter CEO comment: Commenting on the results, Mr. Gary Christenson, Chief Executive Officer of Bumi Armada said, “Our robust cash generation enabled us to further improve our balance sheet as we continue to explore potential new projects to enhance shareholder value.”
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Less "vague" BS and fluff, direct to the point. Something is brewing?
KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 22): Oil-and-gas services firm Bumi Armada Bhd (KL:ARMADA) said on Thursday its net profit more than doubled in the second quarter from a year earlier, thanks to higher margins and contributions from Armada Kraken FPSO and Armada Olombendo.
Full year core net profit is still on track to hit RM1bil!
This will be Bumi Armada's "best year ever", before profits decrease by some 30% next year, and gradually thereafter, eventually falling off a cliff in 2030.
Even in the absence of any new contract, simply securing TGT extension for 7 years, getting Kraken extensions for the next decade and a half, getting Sterling II extensions till 2030, getting Sterling III extensions to 2033 should put Bumi Armada on a handsome course.
The fair value is still in the 70 - 80 sen range as things stand.
We've had some good news in recent weeks:
1. Sterling V achieved full acceptance. Full charter rates will be reflect in Q3 2024 results. 2. RM1.5bil sukuk has been refinanced to a USD400mil 6-year term loan. 3. Kraken's first extension option has been activated.
Strong quarterly performance in 2Q24 2Q24 core net profit of RM265m was 11% higher qoq as the 30%-owned associate Armada Sterling 5 FPSO received cash payment from its client, ONGC, in relation to services performed since it achieved first oil on 7 Jan 2024. This enabled the FPSO to contribute RM8.9m in share of profits to BAB in 2Q24, against a RM25.1m loss in 1Q24. BAB also booked-in engineering consultancy revenues from its jointly-owned FPSO companies in 2Q24; these helped BAB deliver qoq core net profit growth despite 1Q24 being a high base, with the latter having enjoyed a lumpy RM60m O&M revenue uplift after BAB had successfully renegotiated O&M rates for the FPSO Olombendo to cover higher opex. Full earnings contribution from Sterling 5 from 1 Jul 2024 Reiterate Add, as we see a still-strong earnings outlook for 2H24F. As the Armada Sterling 5 FPSO received final acceptance on 1 Jul 2024, this will enable it to book its full bareboat charter daily revenues. As such, the contribution from the FPSO to BAB will increase qoq in 3Q24F, and we think the stronger earnings performance can be a potential share price catalyst. Another potential catalyst is a likely extension of the Armada TGT-1 FPSO charter, which is scheduled to end in Nov 2024F, with BAB currently negotiating to extend the charter to Nov 2026F, although we think the charter will likely continue into late-2031F; we have incorporated this into our SOP valuation and target price of 79 sen. Ignore the likely impairment for Kraken in 4Q24F Downside risks include a likely impairment of the FPSO Kraken in the 4Q24F results announcement during Feb 2025F, which BAB flagged at its analyst briefing this afternoon. BAB first impaired the FPSO Kraken by RM437m at its 4Q23 results which was announced at lunchtime on 28 Feb 2024; this caused its share price to fall 12% that day. That 4Q23 impairment was the difference between the carrying net book value (NBV) of the FPSO Kraken on its balance sheet, vs. the lower ‘Value in Use’ (VIU) which is calculated by reference to the discounted present value of the Kraken’s future cashflows. With the VIU likely to be below NBV again on 31 Dec 2024F (because the Kraken’s firm charter period ends on 31 Mar 2025F and the option period rates are a significant 70% lower), another impairment is likely although we think the size of the impairment should be lower than for 4Q23. We are not concerned about the impairment as the contracted cashflows for the FPSO Kraken remain unchanged and therefore, our DCF value of the FPSO Kraken charter contract is not affected by any accounting, non-cash impairment.
BA is making record profit in the past 2 quarters and debt level has improved tremendously to 0.44. Why is no dividend in sight? Keep cash for new projects in the near future? or they can't declare dividends due to accounting rule constraints?
Dividend will need to be declared next year if there is no new project. The cash pile is going to grow by around rm200mil per quarter moving forward with the reduced debt load and the refinanced sukuk.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
vespa
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Posted by vespa > 1 month ago | Report Abuse
Armada is at silly prices and wont be surprised if it even hits a transient 40 sen ( panic selling ) ; with cashflow yields on song am backing up the truck for the long haul