eat rice eat porridge see you dy Velesto. Whacked another 200k shares at 0.235. If short seller not buying back the position, means it's legit someone with shares selling.
Just not sure just to sell or just to press price.
Doesnt seem revenue and profit affected. DCR should remain elevated or move higher. The margin of safety is the value of their rigs. Even China cannot build that cheap
All 4 rigs not going for periodical survey at one time..make sure clarified clearly. It scheduled carefully one after another...maybe small significant effects as DCR already revised to usd 120 and above by Petronas. Current oil also favourable
Actually only 3 rigs. They're still profitable as DCR increased..
“At least three of our rigs, namely NAGA 2, NAGA 5 and NAGA 6, are expected to commence their five-yearly Special Periodical Survey in 2QFY2024, 3QFY2024 and 4QFY2024 respectively,” it added.
If they shut down 3 or 4 rigs at one time.. of course, they will be run loss. But I don't think Velesto has such stup.....d management to plan in such a way
The Special Periodical Surveys (SPS) will take approximately10 to 30 days only, not a major concern, the investor should monitor the charted rate instead, the chartered rate will determine the earning or loss, not the SPS.
I see no other reason except to press down the price and allowed someone to collect cheap ticket. PNB and HL still the top major shareholder beside others. Recently I saw more shariah type funds joined in.
All the big institutionals received good lump sums of dividends recently after many years hold this stock. My estimate, for PNB alone is around 10.9 million. Some foreign investment banks already left after taking the dividend profit. Maybe this could be the reason for the heavy selling recently. Our dividend is like peanut compared with theirs. The advantages and disadvantages of dividends...😁😄
Velesto’s average DCR is expected to continue its upward trend, to reach a tipping point in 3Q24. As such, we expect the company to post a ‘sequentially stronger quarter ahead’. On that score, Velesto is expected to sustain its earnings well into FY25. The rig suspension by Saudi Aramco may release some supply into the market, however sector utilization rate is expected to stand at a healthy level of close to 90%. The company is ready to embark on merger and acquisition (M&A) as an avenue for its next phase of growth, leveraging on its healthy balance sheet. Maintain our BUY call on Velesto with TP RM0.34 based on 1.1x P/B that is pegged to FY24F BVPS of RM0.32. We think the current share price has not fully reflect its earnings growth from rising DCR. A Decent Start in 1Q24 Velesto posted a decent 1Q24 core earnings of RM46.8mn mainly driven by rising average daily charter rate (DCR). The DCR rose 8% QoQ to USD107k/day on the back of the new rate approved by Petronas for NAGA 2, NAGA 3, NAGA 4 and NAGA 6 jack-up rigs effective February 2024. Meanwhile, the revised dayrate for NAGA 8 that is working for Carigali Hess has commenced in April 2024. Overall, this should propel the average DCR to rise further in the coming quarters with peak DCR possibly achieved in 3Q24. To recap, we have imputed an average DCR assumption of USD125k/day in our FY24F earnings estimate.
Sector Utilisation Rate is at Peak Cycle Rig market conditions are still very tight with marketed utilisation rate (i.e., sector utilisation rate or SUR) has maintained above 90% since at least 4Q23. In April 2024, the SUR was at 94%. This was despite the increase in the number of marketed supplies that rose to 438 rigs (October 2023: 421 rigs) while the number of contracted rigs is 410 rigs (October 2023: 392 rigs). While the rig suspension made by Saudi Aramco would release some supply into the market, the SUR is expected to remain very healthy at 88% by end 2025, according to an estimate.
Looking for the Next Growth Engine As the sector has reached a peak cycle, management anticipates that there is limited upside to DCR in future. Hence, the management is proactively looking for an M&A opportunity to enhance its long-term prospect.
Maintain BUY on Velesto with TP of RM0.34 Maintain Velesto as a BUY with TP of RM0.34 as we peg 1.1x P/B to FY24F BVPS of RM0.32. This implies 16x FY24F P/E. We believe the market will re-rate on the stock amidst stronger earnings visibility from the shortage of offshore rigs.
Petronas taking over Operation which means if Petronas has More orders they can extract more Oil but Exxon Cannot demand more for their existing Clients ( under nego )----However if Petronas need "new oil wells" they still have to Drill More Holes ( Velesto Job )---Old wells usually Dried up after 2--3 years
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
bhza2012
88 posts
Posted by bhza2012 > 2024-07-15 15:01 | Report Abuse
Somebody press the price, maybe