Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-02 11:20 | Report Abuse

@bullrun2025, IOIPG chart looks bearish, no doubt. The recent selldown is apparently caused by this RPT proposal, as I have not seen any other news on IOIPG.

How low the share price can go is anybody's guess, I have no clue but see support at RM2.10-2.00. One can slowly accumulate the shares on weakness like now towards the support levels. You can never buy the lowest, but mush have the holding power if the share price dips further after your purchase.

Short term share price movements are hard to explain and to predict, but at the end of the day, fundamentals prevail.

I remember last June when Singapore EMA announced to implement Temporary Price Cap (TPC) on the electricity wholesale market from 1st July 2023, the market took it very negatively and expected this TPC to impact PowerSeraya's earnings severely. As a result, YTL Power share price suffered a knee-jerk reaction of sell down immediately. The share price took a big hit from RM1.30 then to a low of RM1.15, and I kept calling a buy on weakness, as I knew that this TPC would not have a big impact on PowerSeraya's earnings, the bulk of which are secured through long term retails contracts. YTL Power share price recouped all lost ground within a week and scaled new highs within a month.

Now for IOIPG, this Shenton 101 RPT is just a proposal, not a deal. It will not have any impact on IOIPG fundamentals if minority shareholders reject the proposal, therefore I am puzzled with the selldown. This indicated to me that there might have been deliberate market actions to depress the share price for certain agenda unknown to me, or might have been some smaller funds selling as they might thought other funds / EPF and minority shareholders would approve the proposal.

While I do not know how funds and minority shareholders will vote on this proposal, but personally I see positive bias for IOIPG to take over this SHenton 101 project for synergies to be derived from cross selling and lower competition.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-02 12:17 | Report Abuse

IOIPG is one of the top Buy stocks in TA and AmResearch's big cap picks for 2H 2024. More and more local research houses are calling a buy on IOIPG, when foreign funds are still busy accumulating more shares in IOIPG.

YTD, foreign funds have net bought a total of almost RM300 million of IOIPG shares, while EPF has been buying in millions of shares almost everyday in past few weeks.

Posted by bullrun2025 > 2024-07-02 12:24 | Report Abuse

Property index new high now

Posted by sg999 > 2024-07-02 12:28 | Report Abuse

Because of simeprop

Posted by sg999 > 2024-07-02 15:48 | Report Abuse

2.17/2.18 seem like fighting now.

Posted by Kikilala3188 > 2024-07-02 16:31 | Report Abuse

Boss tunggu apa to unleash share price? Long streak downtrend

Posted by sg999 > 2024-07-02 20:31 | Report Abuse

♦️ *Any other potential land that can be sold to data center player for quick monetisation?.*
So far, no land is suitable to be sold to data center player.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-03 08:55 | Report Abuse

@sg999, IOIPG has plenty of land available for sale to any potential data centre developers in Johor. IOIPG bought a total of 5,680 acres of land in Kulai many years ago and have since developed some 2,200 acres of it into a mature township over the last 20 years. It still has some 3,480 acres of land in Kulai available for future development.

I think at least 1,480 acres of this is available for quick monetisation if opportunities arise. If you remember, IOIPG sold some 450 acres of such land cheap to Eco World last year before the data centre boom in Johor, and Eco World managed to re-sell some 110 acres of it to a data centre developer at RM75 psf. That shows that the Kulai land owned by IOIPG is worth at least RM75 psf.

FYI, Sunway just announced to sell 64 acres of land in JB for RM130 psf to a Singapore-based data centre operator. Crescendo has sold 3 parcels of land in Pulai at RM125-138 psf.

Posted by sg999 > 2024-07-03 11:54 | Report Abuse

Yes , but this is the reply from management meeting with UOB IB. Anyway bad news didn't affect IOIPG share price today.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-03 12:43 | Report Abuse

@sg999, can you please share the management meeting notes with UOB IB? Can share the link here or pm me please?

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-03 15:36 | Report Abuse

I have downloaded the UOB research report on IOIPG dated 28 June 2024. The report mainly talked about the proposal Shenton 101 project injection into IOIPG. UOB analyst is neutral on the Shenton proposal, citing that this project would raise IOIPG gearing to about 0.89x but this Shenton 101 is the last major development opportunity in Singapore prime CBD area and would be good for IOIPG to improve its recurring income in Singapore in the long run.

The analyst further comments that for this proposal to get approved, it will need 50% of the minority shareholders to approve it as Lee CEO cannot vote. And this Shenton HOuse proposal may be a blessing in disguise as minority shareholders can pressure the management and CEO to accelerate its plan to convert its investment properties into a REIT to reduce gearing and unlock value of its assets.

Furthermore, the analyst foresees that when IOI Central Boulevard is completed by September 2024, IOIPG may get revalue the asset, and with the market value of S$3.87 billion to S$5.16 billion vs book value of S$3.4b, the revaluation gain may be from S$470m (RM1.6 billion) to S$1.76b (RM6.16 billion). Such revaluation gain will increase IOIPG's shareholders' fund and reduce gearing ratio of the group.

I don't see any comment by the management in the report that says that the company does not have any land suitable for sale to data centre operators. Perhaps it was a verbal reply and UOB analyst did not put it into the report.

Posted by sg999 > 2024-07-03 22:41 | Report Abuse

Done pm.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-04 11:21 | Report Abuse

Thanks @sg999. The notes are very informative.

To the last question on whether there is any land available for quick monetisation to data centre players, IOIPG management could have taken a cautious stand and conservative approach as the bulk of its landbank in Johor has been earmarked for township development.

I think right now the management does not have any plan to sell any land in Johor for quick monetisation, but I believe when opportunities arise especially when the offer price is good above RM75 psf, I am sure the management will consider it.

Just like last September, IOIPG suddenly announced to sell off 403 acres of its land in Kulai to Eco World while they did not have any plan to sell any land back in 2023. Just that at that time the data centre boom in Johor has not yet appeared, so the land was sold at cheap.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-04 11:48 | Report Abuse

In their reply on how to fund the acquisition of Shenton House project, IOIPG management replied that they were considering setting up a REIT for some of its investment properties in Malaysia and Singapore.

They commented that IOI Central Boulevard is worth minimum SGD4.0 billion vs book value of SGD3.4b. If they sell 50% stakes into a REIT, IOIPG could raise cash of SGD2.0 billion minimum, which would be more than enough to fund the acquisition of Shenton House.

On the Malaysia side, the investment properties have a combined value of RM6.5 billion, if injecting 50% into a REIT, it would raise cash of RM3.25 billion which would still slightly be not enough to fund SHenton House.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-04 12:30 | Report Abuse

The management clarified that IOIPG had a total debt of RM18.9b, out of which RM10.5b (SGD3.0b) was sitting at IOICB, RM4.8b at Marina View Residences, RM2.0b in Malaysia and RM1.5b in China.

The SGD3.0b borrowings at IOICB has floating interest rates which were at 1% at the time of acquisition and now at 4-5% p.a.

Assuming IOICB is injected into a REIT at valuation of SGD4.0b, IOIPG would book in a gain of SGD600m or RM2.1 billion which would increase shareholders' funds from RM22.7b to RM24.8b.

IOIPG would raise cash proceeds of SGD2.0 billion by injecting 50% stakes into a REIT. The management estimated that the total project costs for redeveloping Shenton House would be about SGD1.5 billion, hence if IOIPG were to take over this project, it would need to set aside SGD1.5b from the SGD2.0b cash proceeds. After this, it would still have SGD500m left to pare down net debt. Total debt would come down from RM18.9b by SGD500m or RM1.75b to RM17.15b.

Net gearing ratio would come down from (18.9-2.1)/22.7 = 0.74x to (17.15 - 2.1)/24.8 = 0.61x.

Using the same valuation as IOICB, the Shenton House when fully redeveloped will be worth SGD1.55bn minimum. Assuming Shenton House is injected into the same REIT in Singapore, it would raise another SGD775 million of cash proceeds to IOIPG. Then IOIPG net gearing ratio will fall further to 0.50x, which will be comparable to other big cap property companies'.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-04 12:43 | Report Abuse

After IOICB and Shenton House are injected 50% into a Singapore REIT, IOIPG's total debts will reduce by RM4.5b from RM18.9b to RM14.4b.

At average interest rate of 4-5%, IOIPG will save interest expenses of RM200 million a year, which will increase net profit of the Group.

Hence on that basis, I see this SHenton House proposal as a blessing in disguise as it will help:
1) to pressurize IOIPG management to accelerate the asset monetisation exercise such as injection of IOICB or Malaysian assets into a REIT or dispose of some parcels of land in Kulai to data centre developers. IOIPG management already stated that they could do the REIT listing within 12-18 months, which is just right before Shenton House construction will start at end of 2025.

2) Shenton House is the last major redevelopment site in Singapore CBD, by having IOIPG to take over this project, it will avoid competition and enable IOIPG to have a more orderly roll out of commercial products in the CBD area or cross selling/ marketing with its IOICB and Marina View Residences

3) With the asset monetisation exercises discussed above, setting up a REIT in Singapore to hold 50% of IOICB and Shenton House will reduce group net gearing ratio from 0.74x to 0.50x and reduce total debts by RM4.5b and save interest expenses by RM200 million a year. So after such exercise, IOIPG's group earnings will expand by at least RM200 million, before we add in any accretive earnings from leasing out the redeveloped Shenton House.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-09 11:25 | Report Abuse

Extracts from TA research report today:

"IOIPG (TP: RM3.10. ★★★★) stands out as one of our top buy picks due to its strategic position in the thriving Johor market. It owns an extensive undeveloped landbank of 3,868 acres or 74% of the total undeveloped landbank (GDV: RM7.9bn or 12% of total GDV) and an additional 1,500 acres of non-core lands in Johor. Additionally, IOIPG's property investment division is expected to drive future revenue growth, with a projected 32% increase in FY25 and 19% in FY26, supported by the strong performance of its existing assets such as IOI City Mall Phase 1 & Phase 2 and the upcoming completion of Central Boulevard Towers in Singapore. The division's contribution to revenue is anticipated to rise significantly from 19% in FY23 to 28% by FY26. Furthermore, the potential establishment of a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) could unlock significant value from IOIPG's RM18bn investment properties, enhancing the company's financial flexibility and balance sheet. Our valuation is based on P/Bk multiple of 0.7x against its CY25 BPS, slightly below the stock’s peak valuation of 0.71x since its listing in 2013 and a 3% ESG premium incorporated into our TP."

I am not sure about the 1,500 acres of non-core land in Johor, which I cannot find anywhere mentioned in 2023 Annual Report. Is this 1,500 acres of land part of the 3,868 acres (stated in 2023 Annual Report) of undeveloped land in Johor? Does anyone know?

Posted by bullrun2025 > 2024-07-10 15:53 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 what price u going to topup, i believe the price will further drop

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-10 16:41 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/dragon328/2024-07-10-story-h-157080867-IOIPG_A_Property_Giant_Rising_to_be_a_Potential_5_Bagger

IOIPG will have major re-rating soon.

The article is a bit long, take time to go though to appreciate the company's various assets and projects. As the company has many assets and several new developments, it takes more time to research and elaborate on each of them in this first coverage.

If you do not have the patience to read through the article, then this stock is probably not for you as you will likely not have the patience to hold on until the stock gets its re-rating.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-10 16:41 | Report Abuse

@bullrun2025, I have not been able to add at RM2.11-2.12 so I just bought direct at RM2.15 just now.

Posted by Kikilala3188 > 2024-07-10 21:28 | Report Abuse

Very good write up @dragon328 in fact, the likelihood to happen is favourable to shareholders; this will be IOI Group 2nd gen legacy

Posted by bullrun2025 > 2024-07-10 22:09 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, ok tq

Posted by bullrun2025 > 2024-07-11 07:57 | Report Abuse

China property market may drag down ioipg

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-11 09:50 | Report Abuse

China property market has been slow, so I think IOIPG is not putting much focus on the China market with no new launches.

It is more important for them to focus on the Singapore market with IOICB completing soon, and Marina View Residences to be launched by year end. Furthermore, CEO Lee needs to get this Shenton House deal settled in an acceptable way so the group can focus on getting on expanding the business in Singapore.

Furthermore, another focus is to execute the planned expansion at IOI City Mall phase 3 successfully to continuously attract crowds to its shopping mall and adjacent hotels.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-11 09:53 | Report Abuse

Another area the IOIPG management should pay some attention to is its vast Johor landbank, to review its existing development plans and to see if there is any good opportunity to monetise some parcels of land there to reduce borrowings.

We do not like to see another cheap sale of land such as the 400+ acres sale to Eco World last November at just RM12 psf. It was obviously a lapse / lack of attention in the management team.

Posted by VincentTang > 2024-07-11 10:05 | Report Abuse

WOW, IOIPG 5 Bagger stock. Must buy some. Sapu....
Another multibagget stock is FPHB. Don't miss.

Posted by VincentTang > 2024-07-11 13:24 | Report Abuse

JPMorgan upgrades Malaysia amid economic reforms, renewed investor confidence, data-centred investments.
Foreign money is coming back to Malaysia.
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/718568

Posted by speakup > 2024-07-11 13:53 | Report Abuse

Sailangggggg!!!!
All in!!!!
Ini kalilahhhhhh!!!!

Posted by Eagle77 > 2024-07-14 23:13 | Report Abuse

Profit taking ⬇️🩸

Posted by Eagle77 > 2024-07-15 08:26 | Report Abuse

TP downgrade to 1.90 ⬇️🩸

Posted by Eagle77 > 2024-07-15 09:24 | Report Abuse

Runnn operator dumping ⬇️⬇️⬇️🩸🩸🩸

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-15 10:02 | Report Abuse

Don't spread unfounded news. There isn't any operator in this counter, it is a fundamental stock with good upside potentials to long term investors, not for short term punters.

Please move aside to other penny stocks if you like to do short term trading.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-15 10:03 | Report Abuse

You can see EPF has been accumulating IOIPG in recent weeks, the most recent was the acquisition of 3 million shares on 9th July 2024.

Posted by goody99 > 2024-07-15 10:14 | Report Abuse

dragon328, thank you for your article. No wonder EPF keeps buying this stock and analysts are bullish.

Posted by Eagle77 > 2024-07-15 21:13 | Report Abuse

TP : 1.90 ⬇️🩸

Posted by yewnamhung > 2024-07-15 21:31 | Report Abuse

"There are two sides to every question " ~~ No Gain without pains 🤜🤛

Posted by Eagle77 > 2024-07-16 06:12 | Report Abuse

Big holders can become an operator who say no operator here⬆️⬇️

Posted by Eagle77 > 2024-07-16 06:13 | Report Abuse

Target 1.90 below ⬇️🩸

Posted by Eagle77 > 2024-07-16 07:45 | Report Abuse

Market full of uncertainty if war getting worst then property will die first so better invest in gold ✅

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-16 08:52 | Report Abuse

Then you go invest in gold, please get lost from here

Posted by Eagle77 > 2024-07-16 10:55 | Report Abuse

U think this forum your father punya kah???

Posted by Eagle77 > 2024-07-16 10:55 | Report Abuse

Will down to below 1.80 ⬇️🩸

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-16 12:21 | Report Abuse

Press it down lower better, so that we can accumulate more below 2.00.

Once it approaches RM2.00, the downside is limited. At most it will retest year low of RM1.80 like Eagle77 is wishing.

Posted by Eagle77 > 2024-07-16 12:25 | Report Abuse

Down more because political still unstable and uncertainty of war ⬇️🩸

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-16 12:30 | Report Abuse

Foreign funds have accumulated a total of RM299.66 million worth of IOIPG shares YTD to 30 June 2024. They added the most in the month of May 2024 with a net purchase of RM99.7 million. Average purchase price in May should be around RM2.20-2.30 as IOIPG share price traded between RM2.10 and RM2.50.

Foreign funds bought in a total of RM178 million worth of IOIPG shares in Jan-Mar 2024. Average purchase price should be around RM2.10 as IOIPG share price traded between RM1.85 and RM2.35 in Q1.

All in, I see that the average entry cost of foreign funds in IOIPG is around RM2.20.

Statistics shows that some small quantity of foreign funds exited IOIPG in early July with total sale of RM7 million so far. The selling was likely to have been prompted by the Shenton House proposal announced in early July. As I have written about this proposal which I see is small positive bias in the long run to IOIPG, I do not see further selling of foreign funds in near future.

I continue queuing at RM2.11-2.12 to accumulate more, hope I will be able to get it soon when the remaining short term funds / traders sell off in protest of the SHenton House proposal.

Posted by raymondroy > 2024-07-16 13:06 | Report Abuse

counter seems to have good support at 2.20 level.... awaiting fresh news that is, and as for shenton.... i assume this is already incorporated into the current support level price, only upside here on will be the REIT direction .... IF mngt deems fit... otherwise nothing terribly exciting :-) cheers

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-16 13:54 | Report Abuse

Ya, this is not a stock as exciting as those related to AI or construction theme which are hot lately, but I believe and prefer IOIPG will rise in a slow and steady manner to reflect its improving earnings outlook in next 2-3 years.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-16 15:10 | Report Abuse

After 3.00pm, some foreign funds start their operations selling down IOIPG below 2.20. May have chance to collect low at 2.11 today. Get ready your bullets.

Posted by Eagle77 > 2024-07-16 21:57 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow continue downtrend ⬇️⬇️⬇️🩸🩸🩸

Posted by MULTIEVER > 2024-07-16 22:04 | Report Abuse

@bobbyAxe71 is it you? long time no see 😭