Posted by Eagle77 > 2024-07-17 06:25 | Report Abuse

Prediction price will retrace to 1.80 ⬇️🩸due to unhappiness of SHenton House proposal.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-17 15:17 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/special-feature/ioi-central-boulevard-towers-building-greener-future

Good article on IOI Central Boulevard by Edge Singapore.

Sustainability at the core

David Tibbott, managing director for asset management, says: “Our sustainability objectives are closely aligned with that of our tenants. This development showcases IOI Properties Singapore’s dedication to creating sustainable, top-tier offices that meet the evolving needs of today’s businesses, including major tenants like Amazon and Morgan Stanley.”

Posted by remus > 2024-07-19 09:52 | Report Abuse

Hi dragon328, thanks for sharing many good insights & useful info. May I know where you get the detail data on foreign shareholdings ?

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-19 12:01 | Report Abuse

@remus, I get daily updates from Hong Leong research team on the movements of funds in top 10 counters by value. I think Hong Leong and other brokers like MIDF have access to Bursa data on foreign funds and local funds movements in each counter.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-19 12:10 | Report Abuse

The share price of IOIPG is under selling pressure which I am not sure is from where. Some foreign funds may be selling IOIPG this week after the CEO proposed for IOIPG to take over the Shenton House project.

The last data that I have shows that local funds sold a total of RM6 million worth of IOIPG shares on 16th July, and foreign funds sold a total of RM7 million of IOIPG shares on 15th July.

Apparently funds are unhappy with the proposed related party transaction, and IOIPG top management team is not doing much to appease investors on the proposal, hence the heavy selling seen in past 2-3 weeks.

I am rather disappointed with things going on at IOIPG management, or rather my initiate coverage on this stock was premature. I should have waited for some positive actions from IOIPG top management to avoid heavy selling from funds, before I recommended a Buy on this stock. I apologise for the mistiming.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-19 12:35 | Report Abuse

Expect continued selling on IOIPG shares until the top management takes some proactive steps to address investors' concerns below:
1) the rationale of injecting Shenton House project into IOIPG from the CEO
2) how will IOIPG address its high gearing which will get even higher after Shenton House injection?
3) why is IOIPG management not taking swift actions to monetise its vase assets like selling some parcels of land in Kulai to data centre developers, or engaging investment bankers to study the possibility of injecting its shopping malls and office towers into a commercial REIT?

4) why is IOIPG management not updating on the progress of its prime asset IOI Central Boulevard in Singapore, whether it has indeed received the Temporary Occupancy Certificate on 5th July 2024? whether it has managed to secure any more tenant for IOICB on top of the secured tenants of Amazon and Morgan Stanley?

5) its associate company, IOI Corp just announced to be looking at the possibility of selling some of its plantation land to solar power farm developer or forming a JV to monetise its plantation land. Why is IOIPG management not doing any of that? It has some 3,900 acres of land in JB/Kulai, is it keeping it all for future property development which may take 30 years of even 50 years?

Until we see IOIPG management taking proactive steps to address investors' concern, I think the share price will continue under selling pressure and I expect the Shenton House proposal to be rejected by minority shareholders in an EGM in next 4 months.

So disappointing. It is like another AEON's early CFO and management which were not so agile in managing the company cashflows and balance sheet.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-19 12:40 | Report Abuse

In Bursa announcements, I only see EPF buying up to last Friday 12th July. I suspect it has sold some IOIPG this week on 16th July, will need to wait for few more days before we see any Bursa announcement to confirm that.

EPF may also be frustrated if IOIPG management is not able to give them satisfactory answers to EPF's concerns and queries. Then I would expect EPF to vote against the Shenton House proposal.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-19 13:28 | Report Abuse

@remus, the data on YTD foreign funds buying in IOIPG is extracted from the monthly fund flows reports from Maybank research. I just summarised the funds movement data in IOIPG from the past 7 month Maybank reports.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-19 13:35 | Report Abuse

While IOIPG is grossly under-valued whether based on assets or future earnings growth, the share price may continue to be depressed in near term due to the Shenton House proposal and lack of clarification and proactive actions from IOIPG management to address investors' concern. I initially thought the CEO's move was transparent enough and was good to IOIPG minority shareholders, now I really do not know what the CEO wants and what IOIPG management intends to do.

If they still want the Shenton House proposal to get approved by shareholders, they should be doing the right things of addressing investors' concerns, and not letting the share price crushing down like what happened in past 2-3 weeks.

The more the share price crushes down, the more disgruntled investors will become and the more likely they will blame the management and the CEO for this related party proposal that triggered the sell down of the stock, and eventually vote down the proposal in the EGM.

Had they been doing the right things and convening the right messages to the investment public, the share price will not see so much selling. The investor relation department of the company should take the blame.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-19 13:44 | Report Abuse

Since I have got on board and accumulated a substantial position in IOIPG, I can only hold on and treat it as a long term investment as I believe the company has bright earnings outlook over the next 3-5 years.

But I will not promote this stock much until I see positive reactions from IOIPG management to address investors' concern.

After all, the stocks I recommend generally will not go up until months later when the earnings start to show up or the management starts to take proactive steps to engage with the investment public. YTL and YTL Power only surged up one year after I initially recommended it in May 2022. IGB only moved up gradually few months after I covered it. BPlant only surged up one year after my initial report when there was indeed a take-over offer for the company. Genting went up some 10% within a month of my initial report but went south after a couple of quarters of weak results, but has since recovered to RM4.80. Aeon did go up some 10% after my initial report but quickly went down due to weak quarterly results and refusal of the then CFO to even listen to my proposal. Now the share price is up back as foreign funds started seeing the potential in AEON, also after the CFO resigned.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-19 13:46 | Report Abuse

I will stop here and will only update when there is any new development.

Fellow investors you may just hold on if you have purchased it, otherwise I suggest you fall back to some technical chart guidance before you buy in more.

Posted by cantona762 > 2024-07-19 17:33 | Report Abuse

May try Moomoo, company->shareholder->Institutions.
Probably only will be updated month end.
I saw 30 June, Blackrock +5.35M

This one accurate?

Posted by Hush77 > 2024-07-21 09:56 | Report Abuse

One thing is the company has too much debt and need to be careful..historically company that take up a lot of debt , might not end well..

Posted by bullrun2025 > 2024-07-22 11:02 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, down trend now, are u ok?

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-22 11:08 | Report Abuse

@bullrun2025, the selldown is well expected as I explained last week. Foreign funds continued to offload IOIPG shares, with the latest selling of RM8m worth of IOIPG shares last Friday.

The bigger selling today may be due to yesterday news that Biden is pulling out from US presidential election race, and foreign funds are evaluating the potential impact of a Trump re-election.

But the underlying concern on IOIPG is still the lack of proactive actions or any response from IOIPG management to reassure investors of the merits of the Shenton House proposal, as foreign funds typically dislike related party transactions, they will sell IOIPG shares as they have not heard from IOIPG management for almost a month since the announcement of the SHenton House proposal.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-22 11:10 | Report Abuse

I have no feeling on the selling these few days as I am a long term investor.

But as I said, I won't promote this stock until I see positive actions from IOIPG management. Just like the case of AEON Bhd, I didn't bother with the stock until the then CFO resigned and there was a positive change in AEON top management.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-22 11:28 | Report Abuse

Furthermore, with Biden withdrawing from US presidential race, Trump is seen as the likely winner. And he had said before that he would not want to see US Fed to cut interest rates before November presidential election.

Foreign funds are likely to take cautious view of the market and rate cut prospects in September. With the high gearing of IOIPG, many sectors are using this as an excuse to sell IOIPG shares, looking at the slimmer prospects of rate cuts in near term.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-22 11:41 | Report Abuse

With the inaction from IOIPG management to sooth investors' concern, it prompts me to suspect that there is a slim possibility that IOIPG major shareholders are using this related party proposal to force hands of foreign funds and short term funds to sell off their holdings in IOIPG to possibly below RM2.00, then they might launch a privatisation effort to take it private.

The merits of a privatisation are:
1) Low free floats of IOIPG - Lee family holds 65% in IOIPG, EPF holds about 7.3%, foreign funds have about 3-4%, other local funds may have another 5% or less, so free floats are less than 20%. So Lee family might need to fork out about RM2.00 x 20-30% x 5.5b = RM2.2-3.3 billion only to take it private

2) After they took it private, it would be easier to approve the related party proposal on Shenton House

3) IOIPG would be extremely cheap at a target privatisation price of RM2.00, at less than 0.5x book value of RM4.20 and prospective PER of 8x FY2025 earnings and 4.5x FY2026 earnings

4) IOIPG had net debt of about RM14 billion as of 30 June 2023. After IOIPG injects IOICB into a REIT in Singapore, it would take home SGD2.5-3.0 billion of cash. If IOIPG injects its shopping malls and office towers in Malaysia into a commercial REIT, it would take home another RM3.2 billion of cash. When its hotels are injected into another hospitality REIT, it would take home another RM1.3 billion of cash. By setting up the 3 REITs, IOIPG would take home a cool RM14.5 billion of cash, which would enable it to pare down most of the debts and become a net cash company. Not forgetting its vast landbank in Johor which is ready for quick monetisation, but it is holding onto any sale until after the privatisation.

Posted by Jesse1314 > 2024-07-22 12:35 | Report Abuse

Hi dragon,

The possible privatisation scenario is profound. It makes me want to sell-out now to prevent further losses😥

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-22 14:18 | Report Abuse

@Jesse1314, yes I have similar bad feeling about it, but I still think IOIPG major shareholders will do the right things and not jeopardize minority shareholders' interests.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-22 15:40 | Report Abuse

@Jesse1314, I have similar bad feeling about it, but still believe IOIPG major shareholders will do the right things not jeopardizing minority shareholders' interests.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-23 09:36 | Report Abuse

HL research today issues a report on the property sector. It opines that Malaysia property sector is in a multi-year upcycle from now on and the property companies with large landbank in strategic locations will do very well in next few years. The following is the extract from the report on IOIPG.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-23 09:37 | Report Abuse

IOI Properties is set to unlock significant value from its Singapore assets, namely IOI Central Boulevard and Marina View Residences soon. On the Malaysia side, the group is also not resting on its laurels as it is scaling up its launches significantly capitalizing on the improving sector demand. The group is one of the largest landbank owners among developers in Malaysia, with more than 8k acres of land remaining and thus it is well-positioned to ride the current property upcycle. The stock remains grossly undervalued especially when considering that its property investment and hotel assets are worth more than twice its market capitalization, without even considering its landbank value yet. We anticipate that the stock will be the first pure play property stock to re-enter the KLCI by 2025 once market appreciates the value of the stock. We have a conviction BUY call on the stock with TP of RM3.30 based on 45% discount to estimated RNAV of RM6.00.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-23 09:48 | Report Abuse

In terms of PER, IOIPG is relatively cheap at 16x FY2024 earnings, compared to 32x for Sunway, 20x for MahSing, 23x for Sime Property and 38x for UEMS.

In terms of price to book, IOIPG is the lowest at 0.5x P/B, compared to 1.5x for Sunway, 1.3x for Mahsing, 1.0x for Sime Property, 0.8x for UEMS and 0.7x for SP Setia.

With such an undervalued stock and the largest property company in terms of profitability, it does not make any sense for foreign funds to continue selling IOIPG in such a big way, it is pure madness.

The culprit is obviously the proposed Shenton House proposal, which is seen as a related party transaction, typically disliked by foreign funds, just like years ago when IOI Corp proposed a related party transaction, its share price also tanked.

It is now down to IOIPG management to manage the public outcry arising from the RPT and management's inaction to assure investors to prevent further sellfdown of the shares.
I think it does not make any sense now to sell IOIPG shares, at such a depressed price level (already down 17% from recent peak), as any selldown will benefit IOIPG major shareholders if they are considering a privatisation. I would say we should hold onto the shares and go and vote down the Shenton House proposal in the EGM, if IOIPG management fails to provide assurance of the merits of the deal and fails to address investors' concern on its high gearing and related party transaction.

Posted by Jesse1314 > 2024-07-23 10:11 | Report Abuse

Hi dragon,

The financial fundamentals of IOIPG safely say is solid and the potential to grow is there.

All these I believed is built on the back of the late tycoon's shrewdness and discipline.

However, whatever goodness being done it is no use if the management doesn't explain (do PR); it is as if a public company who doesn't wish to answer to the public.

Anyway, I guess the management is saying the value is there; but most of the time, your value is what the market give you.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-23 10:28 | Report Abuse

@Jesse1314, I tend to agree with you.

Usually a listed company will be valued more if the boss or the investor relation officer is good in making contacts with the analysts and fund managers, answering questions of investors and making effort to address investors' concern.

We have seen the case of YTL and YTL Power where Tan Sri Francis Yeoh and his investor relation officer have been very busy meeting analysts, doing roadshows in Singapore and other countries, providing regular updates on the companies' developments such as the collaboration with Nvidia and issues around Wessex Waters, top bosses meeting local and foreign analysts like Hong Leong, Ambank, Macquarie, CLSA and JP Morgan, organising site visits to Kulai data centre park and Wessex Waters in Bath, UK, explaining the business models of PowerSeraya's competitive electricity market and Wessex Waters' regulated business model to analysts and giving ESOS at low share price to reward long serving employees (so that staffs will be incentivised to work harder to drive company's profits to higher levels).

Or in the case of AEON, at least its investor relation officer took the initiatives to contact me and address investors' concern. BPlant indeed got an offer from KLK as my earlier article suggested. IGBB is working on its plan to inject Mid Valley Southkey into the REIT to unlock value. Genting is mulling the plan for a US listing to unlock value of its various US assets, just waiting for the appropriate timing as suggested by its top management.

So far, we have not seen anything from IOIPG management to engage with analysts and the investment public. That's why it made me suspect that they might not want to maintain the listing status of the company and aim to privatise it at a low price.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-23 12:31 | Report Abuse

Foreign funds have been buying big on Sunway, mainly driven by the prospect of it setting up a healthcare REIT to house the various Sunway hospitals. The listing timing is projected to be in 2027 and the potential valuation may be stretched to RM20 billion at a EV/EBITDA multiple of 20x. Sunway share price has more than doubled up YTD to a market cap of RM24.5 billion today.

In comparison, IOIPG potential injection of IOI Central Boulevard into a REIT in Singapore may be even sooner than Sunway's setting up of the healthcare REIT. IOICB may be injected into a REIT as soon as in 2025 once occupancy reaches 90% or higher. Potential valuation may be as high as SGD6.0 billion or RM21 billion, even higher than Sunway's potential valuation of its healthcare REIT.

IOIPG has a market cap of RM11.9 billion only, trading at only half of the potential valuation of IOI Central Boulevard.

Posted by stncws > 2024-07-23 12:38 | Report Abuse

MARKET will crash for a while...don buy now

Posted by stockpicker888 > 2024-07-23 12:49 | Report Abuse

Hi dragon328, Wouldn't it be too early to jump into any conclusion? At this point of time, speculations shouldn't help much. Privatization is a very huge and sensitive topic, and if it is really true it would have already reflected heavily in the share price. I also believe it is less likely that IOI would use price drop as a strategy, looking at its ambitions to grow its portfolios. In contrary, there are companies who constantly paint very good image to shareholders but in the end, things remained bad/under expectations. While I don't disagree that as a public listed company, PR should be done responsibly to ensure clarity. But it is also nothing wrong if a company choose to work tirelessly at the back to put fruitful results into reality, which is ultimately the outcome that matters the most. I believe all that needs to be explained has been included in the quarterly reports and the announcements made via Bursa. I hope for the best for this company, as it would play a key part of this growing nation, especially from now on, as we finally see lights in Malaysia's economic potentials.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-23 14:31 | Report Abuse

@stockpicker888, it is too early to tell. That's why I said there was a SLIM chance of a privatisation of IOIPG by its major shareholders. And I still believe the major shareholders will do the right things not jeopadizing minority shareholders' interests.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-23 14:35 | Report Abuse

Of course, I also admire the low profile style of IOIPG management, working tirelessly to bring good projects to fruition, eg. IOI Central Boulevard and IOI City Mall Phase 2.

I was criticising the investor relation department of IOIPG for not doing any damage control or any public / investors relation after the related party proposal, letting the share price dropping in a free fall. I still think the investor relation department should take the blame.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-23 15:05 | Report Abuse

@stockpicker888, I cannot be seen as purely promoting this stock, otherwise my posts will be removed, just like many of my posts in YTL Power forum have been removed for "over-promoting" the stock, which may have angered certain powerful parties.

I have to criticise IOIPG in some way or another.

Posted by paktua73 > 2024-07-23 16:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by dmyap327 > 2024-07-23 16:56 | Report Abuse

HI PAKTUA I TRY TO BE A FOLLOWER BUT I DONT KNOW WHERE TO CLICK PLS
HELP TQ SO MUCH...........

Posted by paktua73 > 2024-07-23 17:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockpicker888 > 2024-07-23 20:56 | Report Abuse

The Board of Directors of IOI Properties Group Berhad (the "Company") wishes to announce that IOI Mall Damansara Sdn Bhd (“IOI Mall Damansara”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, has entered into a Sale and Purchase Agreement with Tropicana Indah Sdn Bhd on 23 July 2024, for the acquisition of Tropicana Gardens Mall in Tropicana Indah, Petaling Jaya, Selangor (the "Mall") at a total cash consideration of RM680 million.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-23 21:11 | Report Abuse

@stockpicker888, this latest acquisition by IOIPG of Tropicana Gardens Mall seems to be a good deal, purely looking at the acquisition price at a big discount to the book value of RM944 million. Though the mall is only 77% occupied, but it has over 1.0 million sf NLA which is big. And the vacancy of 23% provides upside to future rental income.

The announcement does not contain any info on the existing rental income of the mall, so I am not able to calculate the rental yield.

Do you have any info on that? What do you think of the latest acquisition?

Posted by speakup > 2024-07-23 21:21 | Report Abuse

what i think ? LIMIT DOWN!

Posted by Zazzyy > 2024-07-23 22:27 | Report Abuse

dragon’s passionate & detailed analysis beats many IBs report. Credit has to be given for his efforts to share . whether share price goes up is secondary . instead we have people here who know only to criticise without basis . don’t let them affect your passion. good luck

Posted by alexisinvestor > 2024-07-23 22:40 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, not forgetting Sunway only owns 84% stake in Sunway Healthcare after divesting 16% stake to GIC in 2021. In comparison, IOIPG fully owns 100% stake in IOICB

Which makes the valuation gap between IOIPG and Sunway even bigger


Foreign funds have been buying big on Sunway, mainly driven by the prospect of it setting up a healthcare REIT to house the various Sunway hospitals. The listing timing is projected to be in 2027 and the potential valuation may be stretched to RM20 billion at a EV/EBITDA multiple of 20x. Sunway share price has more than doubled up YTD to a market cap of RM24.5 billion today.

In comparison, IOIPG potential injection of IOI Central Boulevard into a REIT in Singapore may be even sooner than Sunway's setting up of the healthcare REIT. IOICB may be injected into a REIT as soon as in 2025 once occupancy reaches 90% or higher. Potential valuation may be as high as SGD6.0 billion or RM21 billion, even higher than Sunway's potential valuation of its healthcare REIT.

IOIPG has a market cap of RM11.9 billion only, trading at only half of the potential valuation of IOI Central Boulevard.

Posted by stockpicker888 > 2024-07-23 22:59 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 my first impression is similar to yours, looking IOIPG’s aggressiveness in its hotels/malls portfolio expansion, it shows that management has strong will to strengthen the company’s source of recurring income. IOI REITS establishment could even be on the horizon in a long term perspective. Of course the underlying concern would be the additional debt which could increase the gearing ratio, and deters stock price.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-24 09:21 | Report Abuse

@stockpicker888, yes the immediate reaction from most investors to IOIPG's latest acquisition should be the escalating gearing ratio which will increase from currently 0.73x to 0.92x after these 2 acquisitions from Tropicana and the acquisition of SHenton House project from the CEO at S$1.0b.

The share price should see muted reactions today as the acquisition of the Tropicana Gardens Mall was well expected, and is part of the package deal with Tropicana after the acquisition of W Hotel, KL and Courtyard by Marriotte, Penang in Dec 2023 and early 2024.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-24 09:25 | Report Abuse

HL analyst is more optimistic of the deal. Current rental rates at Tropicana Gardens Mall is around RM5.00 psf, so annual rental income will be 1.05m sf x 77% x RM5.00 psf x 12mths = RM48.5 million. Hence the acquisition price of RM680m will provide a gross yield of 7.1%.

However, Tropicana Gardens Mall is currently loss making. The analyst is optimistic that IOIPG will be able to improve the mall footfalls and potentially double up the gross rentals in 5-6 years, just like what IOIPG achieved from its IOI City Mall (which was loss making in 2014 when opened but now is the largest shopping mall in Malaysia with average rental rate of over RM10 psf).

Posted by paktua73 > 2024-07-24 10:52 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by paktua73 > 2024-07-24 10:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by paktua73 > 2024-07-24 14:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-24 15:00 | Report Abuse

Dear paktua73, thank you so much for your effort to promote my blog and to get so many new followers, but I see that many of my posts now in YTL and YTL Power forum get to stay and have not been removed since yesterday, and I don't aim to be having the most followers in i3.

But I will keep fighting the naysayers who got my posts removed, by continuously posting impartial comments on the stocks I cover. Only if my posts get removed again, then fellow investors may pm me for any info you require.

Thank you

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-24 15:05 | Report Abuse

As expected, IOIPG share is suffering another round of selling today after the latest acquisition news. Though the daily data does not show that IOIPG was in the top 10 counters of foreign funds selling everyday, as it only shows foreign selling or buying above RM8m or something, but I suspect foreign funds have been selling IOIPG non-stop on daily basis, perhaps at 2.0 million to 3.0 million shares (sale volume of RM4.3m to RM6.5m) a day.

I guess funds and investors are getting frustrated with the latest developments around the company and lack of actions from IOIPG management to prevent the share price crash from RM2.50 level.

Posted by bullrun2025 > 2024-07-24 17:51 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, any stop loss strategy here

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-07-24 20:53 | Report Abuse

@bullrun2025, I am not sure when to stop loss as I am not good at technical charts. But normally as a rule of thumbs, I cut loss on a stock if the share price falls by 15% to 20% lower than my purchase price, or fundamentally the company's prospects have deteriorated.

My average cost of purchase is around RM2.23 after averaging down to RM2.11 today. As the share price is testing a key support level of RM2.10, I will stop buying and wait to adapt my own cut loss strategy. As it stands now, I look to cut partially when share price drops below RM2.00 and then cut off all holdings if share price drops below RM1.80.

That's for me. You need to assess your own risk appetite.