KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 20): RHB Investment Bank Bhd Research (RHB IB) has cut its forecast of financial year 2020 (FY20F) and FY21F earnings 26% and 24% for MyNews Holdings Bhd to impute a longer-than-expected gestational period of its bakery and ready-to-eat central kitchen.
In a note today, the research house said it maintained its 'Buy' call on the group at RM1.16 with a lower target price of RM1.45 (from RM1.70) due to the scalable growth potential, and said it introduces FY22F earnings at RM47 million.
RHB IB said MyNews yesterday reported a FY19 net profit of RM26.8 million (+1.2% year-on-year [y-o-y]), which is below house and consensus expectations, accounting for only 79% and 85% of the forecasts.
RHB IB said the earnings disappointment is mainly attributed to larger-than-expected losses from the group's manufacturing units, 51%-owned Mynews Ryoyupan Sdn Bhd and Mynews Kineya Sdn Bhd.
"We highlight underlying FY19 net profit growth would have been 10% excluding the losses from manufacturing.
"All in, MyNews has opened 77 new outlets in FY19, close to management's target of 80 stores, bringing the total number of outlets to 513 (+18% y-o-y)," it said.
Looking forward, the research house said it expects more intensive management focus on lifting the sales volume and utilisation rate of the manufacturing plant.
This includes fine-tuning product offerings to meet consumer demand and more aggressive marketing and introductory initiatives to improve consumer acceptance of fresh food products, it said.
Meanwhile, it also said the underlying convenience store business is likely to remain robust in churning growth, driven by outlet expansion and same-store sales growth.
"Essentially we reckon the strategy to go upstream is vital in complementing the store expansion to underpin sustainable growth over the long run.
"In our view, the scalability of the business is the key factor supporting the premium valuation commanded by convenience store operators — as such, investors should take a longer-term view on the stock unless there is a significant weakness in underlying business operations," it added.
At 11.23am, NyNews shares fell 5.17% or 6 sen to RM1.10, for a market capitalisation of RM750.37 million.
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Products and services myNEWS.com outlets carry products ranging from a large selection of magazines to convenience products such as household items, food and beverage, tobacco, personal hygiene and pharmaceutical products, snacks and drinks that includes its co-propriety brand of natural mineral water with Dasani. It also offers a variety of services available at selected outlets including prepaid top-up for mobile service providers, Touch ‘n Go reloads, bill payments, money remittance services and automated teller machines, photocopying, money changing agent to Western Union and Travelex, as well as courier services.
Outlets Market shopping behaviour has changed to favour the locations of modern trade such as shopping malls and hypermarkets as they are more convenient, accessible and appealing to the customers. Shoppers are lured by the locations of the outlets, environment, product display, promotions and the loyalty programs. As such, myNEWS.com was the first to move from the typical newsstand locations to modern trade by positioning themselves in key locations where most of their customers are located. For instance, shopping malls, hypermarkets, offices, hospitals, resorts, theme parks, transportation hubs and airports.
myNEWS currently has over 420 outlets mainly in Peninsular Malaysia and a few in East Malaysia. It is mainly concentrated in the Central region, operating in shopping complexes and business hubs like Mid Valley Megamall, 1 Utama Shopping Centre, Pavilion KL, Suria KLCC, Sunway Pyramid, Setia City Mall, Plaza Sentral, Damansara City Mall, and The Horizon Bangsar South. In other regions, myNEWS also operates outlets in some famous shopping centres, for example Dataran Pahlawan Melaka Megamall, Queensbay Mall, Jusco Tebrau City, Little Red Cube and The Spring. It also has outlets in transportation hubs, such as KLIA, KLIA2, Senai International Airport, Penang International Airport, Langkawi International Airport, and Kota Kinabalu International Airport. myNEWS outlets are also available at rail transport hubs, such as LRT and MRT stations.
Store design The design for myNEWS.com outlets is modern and contemporary with an emphasis on brightness and airiness.[3]
Malaysia aging population, many retirees, singles are having breakfast, lunch and dinner at MYNEWS , great potential, air-conditioned, healthy foods, affordable
Just temporary only, 49% Japanese owned manufacturing companies. Japanese is not stupid
RHB IB said the earnings disappointment is mainly attributed to larger-than-expected losses from the group's manufacturing units, 51%-owned Mynews Ryoyupan Sdn Bhd and Mynews Kineya Sdn Bhd.
Many singles or unmarried people in Malaysia also a big market for MYNEWS especially retirees abandoned by their children in Malaysia or the children are overseas
Can manufacture frozen foods like kawan and export to other countries. Those countries without mynews
RHB IB said the earnings disappointment is mainly attributed to larger-than-expected losses from the group's manufacturing units, 51%-owned Mynews Ryoyupan Sdn Bhd and Mynews Kineya Sdn Bhd.
The FY20 game plan Mynews will focus on growing its customer reach and driving RTE demand in the near-term through higher store openings while investing in marketing efforts for Maru Kafe and RTE products to lift overall sales. Our earnings forecasts are unchanged. At 21.1x FY20E PER, Mynews currently trades at a 33% discount to its mean PER of 31.6x. We reiterate our BUY call and MYR1.35 TP (28x CY20 PER; consumer sector peer average) with a FY19-FY22E EPS CAGR of 19%.
LIST OF THIRTY (30) LARGEST SHAREHOLDERS AS AT 31 JANUARY 2019 No. Shareholder Shareholding No. %
1 D&D Consolidated Sdn Bhd 373,777,000 54.79 2 Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) 31,141,400 4.57 3 Dang Tai Kien 22,945,000 3.36 4 DB (Malaysia) Nominee (Asing) Sdn Bhd The Bank of New York Mellon for The Board of Regents of the University of Texas System 13,535,000 1.98 5 Cititgroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Employees Provident Fund Board (Aberdeen) 12,936,100 1.90 6 HSBC Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd HSBC (M) Trustee Bhd for Affin Hwang Select Opportunity Fund (3969) 12,470,200 1.83 7 CIMB Group Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd CIMB Commerce Trustee Berhad – Kenanga Growth Fund 12,436,600 1.82 8 Citigroup Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd Exempt An for Citibank New York (Nogres Bank 9) 11,927,300 1.75 9 Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Employees Provident Fund Board 9,690,000 1.42 10 HSBC Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd Exempt An for Morgan Stanley & Co. International PLC (IPB Client Acct) 9,666,200 1.42
KUALA LUMPUR: As the general outlook for the consumer sector remains soft, economists believe the bright spot for the sector will be the government’s Visit Malaysia 2020 (VM2020) campaign, which is expected to boost spending on the back of an increase in tourist arrivals.
For the first nine months of 2019, Malaysia’s international tourist arrivals and tourist receipts increased by 3.7% and 6.9% year-on-year to 20.1 million and RM66.1 billion respectively.
With VM2020, the government is targeting 30 million international tourist arrivals in 2020 with total tourist receipts of about RM100 billion.
“To ensure the success of VM2020 and strengthen the tourism industry in Malaysia, the government has allocated RM1 billion in the Tourism Infrastructure Fund until end-2020 to provide financial assistance to existing and new companies involved in tourism-related activities and services,” AllianceDBS Research said in a note recently.
“The fund is eligible for all tourism infrastructure projects in Malaysia. These are projects that contribute to the development of the tourism industry such as, but not limited to hotel, convention centres, facilities related to education, medical or agro-tourism,” the research house said.
Areca Capital Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Danny Wong Teck Meng said with VM2020, certain listed companies may indirectly benefit from increased tourist arrivals, such as Genting Malaysia Bhd, which owns and operates Resorts World Genting.
He also likes Berjaya Food Bhd, which operates the Starbucks chain of specialty coffee outlets via franchise, as he sees the growing coffee chain remaining as a key earnings driver.
Meanwhile, AllianceDBS also believes that the current crude palm oil (CPO) price rally will improve purchasing power, particularly in the palm oil sector.
CPO prices have recovered since the second half of 2019. Since hitting a low of RM1,865 per tonne in June 2019, the settlement price has been trending up to reach RM3,128 on Dec 30, 2019.
“The sustained price recovery of CPO could boost purchasing power of the workforce and growers in palm oil-related sectors, which in turn may induce higher consumer spending in rural areas,” said AllianceDBS.
Looking ahead, the research house believes that Dutch Lady Milk Industries Bhd, Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd and Nestle (Malaysia) Bhd could benefit from increased consumer spending arising from Budget 2020’s initiatives and the recovery in CPO prices.
“Meanwhile, Mynews Holdings Bhd, 7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings Bhd, AEON Co (M) Bhd and Berjaya Food Bhd are [also] well positioned to capitalise on higher tourist spending from VM2020,” it added.
KUALA LUMPUR: Economists are neutral on the prospects of the consumer sector in 2020 as data shows Malaysians are becoming more cautious about their spending.
The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research’s (MIER) Consumer Sentiment Index contracted by nine points quarter-on-quarter to 84 points in the third quarter of 2019 (3Q19), marking the lowest below optimistic threshold level since 4Q17.
“MIER noted that the domestic spending momentum would deteriorate in the near future due to anxieties over rising living cost, a sluggish job outlook coupled with limited shopping plans due to weakening purchasing power,” AllianceDBS said in a research note dated last Friday.
Retail Group Malaysia (RGM) recently cut its annual retail sales growth forecast for 2019 from 4.4% to 3.7%, in view of a disappointing growth of 1.8% in 3Q19 and the expected weak growth expected in 4Q19. This was RGM’s third revision since the beginning of 2019.
For 2020, the group is projecting a 4.6% growth for retail sales, although it noted that the year will remain a challenge for the Malaysian retail industry.
“Externally, trade disputes between countries are not expected to end soon. Internally, economic policies that can stimulate consumers’ spending are limited in the near term,” RGM said in its Malaysia Retail Industry Report released recently.
Despite the low consumer sentiment as measured by MIER, AmInvestment Bank said it expects healthy consumer spending to be sustained on the back of a steady labour market and stable inflation. The bank has projected private consumption to grow at 6.9%.
Socio-Economic Research Centre (SERC) executive director Lee Heng Guie is projecting private consumption growth to slow to 6.7% in 2020 from an estimated 7.2% in 2019.
“The estimation is slower compared with an average of 7% in the past-five years,” Lee told The Edge Financial Daily.
He said wage growth is a vital factor to support consumer spending. Noting that salary increment for 2020 is expected to remain slow, he said this will continue to affect consumers’ spending power.
Private sector wage growth moderated to 3.8% in 3Q19 from 4.2% in 2Q19. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) said this was supported mainly by services wage growth, which was relatively sustained at 4.1% in 3Q19, versus 4.4% in 2Q19, particularly in the food and beverage, and information and communication sub sectors.
Growth of manufacturing wages however moderated to 3.2% in 3Q19, from 3.9% in 2Q19.
Lower wage growth was also observed largely in export oriented industries, particularly in the electrical and electronics (3Q19:4.1%; 2Q19: 5.1%) and petrochemical clusters (3Q19:2.2%; 2Q19: 3.1%).
The slower rate of wage increment contributed to a weaker private consumption growth of 7% in 3Q19, down from 7.8% in 2Q19. BNM noted that this was due to household spending normalising towards a long-term trend as well as strong base effects from the tax holiday spending last year.
Meanwhile, SERC’s Lee stressed the need to watch out for global economic conditions such as the Sino-US trade dispute. But with some positive developments on the trade war front, he is hopeful there will be stability of sentiments.
“For me, the sentiment stability will only kick in by the second half of 2020. Hopefully China and the US will continue to push for a trade agreement following the ‘phase one’ trade deal [announced last month],” he said.
Areca Capital Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Danny Wong Teck Meng said the outlook for the retail segment will remain weak for the next few months, as he has yet to see signs of recovery in the nation’s economy.
Malaysia’s gross domestic product moderated to 4.4% in 3Q19 from a year earlier, after 2Q19’s 4.9% year-on-year expansion.
“The retail sector is a proxy to the economy. If consumer confidence comes back, that means the economy is improving. But, that is yet to be seen,” Wong said.
Among consumer product stocks, AmInvestment Bank has a “buy” call on Power Root (fair value [FV] RM2.82), Guan Chong (FV RM3.49), Mynews Holdings (FV RM1.66), Berjaya Food (FV RM1.57) and Leong Hup International (FV RM1.04). AmInvestment Bank’s top pick for the sector is Power Root.
“We believe that Power Root will be a beneficiary of healthy consumer spending and export growth. We continue to like the company because of: i) its strong earnings recovery from streamlining of costs; ii) strong export sales growth from its planned expansion; iii) its scarcity premium for exposure to the instant coffee segment as Power Root is the closest to a pure play in the segment; and iv) a decent estimate dividend yield of 4.3% to 5.5% from FY20F to FY22,” AmInvestment Bank analyst Nafisah Azmi said in a report dated Dec 19, 2019.
LIST OF THIRTY (30) LARGEST SHAREHOLDERS AS AT 31 JANUARY 2019 No. Shareholder Shareholding No. % (continued)
11 Dang Tai Gean 9,178,000 1.35 12 CIMB Bank for D&D Consolidated Sdn Bhd (M2681A) 9,000,000 1.32 13 CIMSEC Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd CIMB Bank for D&D Consolidated Sdn Bhd (M2682A) 9,000,000 1.32 14 Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) (Aberdeen) 8,545,300 1.25 15 Maybank Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Affin Hwang Asset Management Berhad for Hong Leong Assurance Berhad (PAR-220082) 7,250,000 1.06 16 Maybank Nominee (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd National Trust Fund (IFM Kenanga) 5,265,900 0.77 17 HSBC Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd HSBC-FS I for JPMorgan Eastern Smaller Companies Fund 4,542,600 0.67 18 HSBC Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd PICTET and CIE (Europe) for Quaero Capital Funds (LUX)-Bamboo 4,280,000 0.63 19 HSBC Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd HSBC-FS I for JPMorgan Malaysia Fund 3,902,000 0.57 20 HSBC Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd TNTC For Strathclyde Pension Fund 3,773,000 0.55 21 Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Employees Provident Fund Board (CIMB Prin) 3,754,600 0.55 22 Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan)(Affin Hwang SM CF) 3,734,100 0.55 23 Liew Heng Heng 3,477,300 0.51 24 Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) (Kenanga) 3,408,200 0.50 25 Maybank Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd MTrustee Berhad for Tenaga Nasional Berhad Retirement Benefit Trust Fund (FM-Aberdeen) (419500) 3,260,000 0.48 26 CIMB Group Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Exempt An for Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Affin) 2,812,200 0.41 27 DB (Malaysia) Nominee (Asing) Sdn Bhd The Bank of New York Mellon for GreatLink Asean Growth Fund 2,610,400 0.38 28 DB (Malaysia) Nominee (Tempatan) Sendirian Berhad Affin Hwang Asset Management Berhad for Malaysian Timber Council (Operating Fund) 2,404,600 0.35 29 Maybank Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Medical Fund (IFM AffinHwang) 2,354,200 0.35 30 HSBC Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd BBH and CO Boston for Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund 2,292,100 0.34
MYNEWS Financial Information Market Capital (RM) 644.64m Number of Share 682.15m EPS (cent)* 3.93 P/E Ratio 24.05 ROE (%) 8.93 Dividend (cent)^ 1.000 Dividend Yield (%) 1.06 Dividend Policy (%) 0 NTA (RM) 0.440
* Calculated based on the net profit of the trailing twelve months and latest number of shares issued. ^ Total dividend amount declared for financial year ended 2019-10-31.
SEM Financial Information (7-11) Market Capital (RM) 1.727b Number of Share 1.233b EPS (cent)* 4.48 P/E Ratio 31.25 ROE (%) 56.71 Dividend (cent)^ 2.400 Dividend Yield (%) 1.71 Dividend Policy (%) 0 NTA (RM) 0.079
* Calculated based on the net profit of the trailing twelve months and latest number of shares issued. ^ Total dividend amount declared for financial year ended 2018-12-31.
MYNEWS Shareholding Changes Date of change Shares Director/ Substantial Shareholder 10 Jan 2020 Acquired 105,000 Mr Ding Lien Bing 06 Jan 2020 Acquired 100,000 Mr Ding Lien Bing 23 Dec 2019 Acquired 300,000 Employees Provident Fund Board 20 Dec 2019 Acquired 300,000 Employees Provident Fund Board 17 Dec 2019 Acquired 178,500 Employees Provident Fund Board 06 Nov 2019 Acquired 776,800 Mr Dang Tai Wen 06 Nov 2019 Acquired 776,800 Mr Dang Tai Luk 06 Nov 2019 Acquired 776,800 Mr Dang Tai Hock 16 Oct 2019 Acquired 1,000,000 Mr Dang Tai Wen 16 Oct 2019 Acquired 1,000,000 Mr Dang Tai Hock
Stronger quarter ahead for Mynews, CGS-CIMB Research says ANALYST REPORTS Friday, 20 Dec 2019 9:01 AM MYT
CGS-CIMB Research said Mynews 4QFY10/19 revenue rose to RM139.8m (+6.2% qoq), thanks to more new store openings and higher sales of its in-house ready-to-eat (RTE) products.
Since mynews is a Malaysian brand unlike 7-11 which is American, government should support those who wanted to do franchise to choose mynews instead. No royalty payment outflow to USA
Every day drop a bit. Soon .90 is almost reachable. If the market going to clash, we might even see .70 also. Gestation period can last as long as 2-3 years. Any rebound is limited.
I think top line growth will still be strong but bottom line depend on the success of its RTE products. Top 30 shareholders control 90% and most of them need not announce change in shareholdings as its below the 5% threshold. If the recent selldown not by one or few of the fund, who else has so much shares to sell? Not forgetting most of them came in since IPO, meaning their cost is only 55 sen. I believe the selldown is due to expectation of slower or negative growth in bottom line after the not so encouraging results in last 2 quarters. Worth keeping eye on this stock but may be too early to enter now...my 2 cents.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Victor Yong
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Posted by Victor Yong > 2020-01-13 21:29 | Report Abuse
Expecting rebound tomorrow, those wanted to sell had done it