Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-19 18:33 | Report Abuse

Don't be so rigid and dogmatic

Whatever Howard mark said doesn't bother me . I didn't even watch his video

I am just saying it casually (the bull market until 2020). I could be wrong, doesn't matter. No harm having a view on certain thing, but bear in mind there is not sufficient data to deem it a high probability event



Posted by 3iii > Apr 19, 2019 6:25 PM | Report Abuse

<<<
Icon8888 I think we are still at early stage of bull

will last until end 2020

because US presidential election November 2020

market usually up in election year
19/04/2019 6:17 PM
<<<


I disagree and I agree with Howard Marks in his video.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-19 18:35 | Report Abuse

You should t keep on telling him he is perfect

He is not

Nobody is

There is room for improvement

Don't be the author of "the end of history"

There is a big world out there


Posted by qqq3 > Apr 19, 2019 6:27 PM | Report Abuse

icon

3iii is not doing the wrong thing u know?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-19 18:36 | Report Abuse

How many times do I need to tell you I am not a big fan of timing cycles



Posted by 3iii > Apr 19, 2019 6:31 PM | Report Abuse

By the way, icon8888 migjt have read this book but the true message is not absorbed.

Continuously and repeatedly, Howard Marks stressed his teaching is only applicable on rare occasions in the market. Specifically he mentioned the extremes of the market cycle.

In his lifetime of investing, he has been very correct (100%) in calling the market cycle.

But wait for catch.

Only on 5 times in his long career. Yes, he admitted that those were the 5 times when he was certain of the market cycle. At other times, he is smarter to admit, he didn't know.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 18:37 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIlH1Z0wFp8&feature=youtu.be

@11.30 where are we in the cycle today? We are in the middle ground somewhete.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-04-19 18:38 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Apr 19, 2019 6:27 PM | Report Abuse
icon
3iii is not doing the wrong thing u know?
At least, unlike that KC who years earlier wanted to buy Mesdaq shares for KYY.

I thought you have changed by apologizing to me for accusing me to do something I did not do?

Posted by qqq3 > Apr 19, 2019 8:28 AM | Report Abuse
Kc Chong...............I must apologise to you....I just been reminded that probability is the one who spread rumor about my son in PBB....so it is not you, after all.............just an honest mistake.

Looks like it is another baseless slander again. Why? Let me ask you very specific question and please provide evidence.

1) When did I ever "wanted" KYY in buying any share?
2) Which Mesdaq share I "wanted" him to buy?

If you can't find anything on the above, please do another apology again.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 19:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 19:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 19:21 | Report Abuse

My strategies for buying and selling (KISS version)

Strategies for buying and selling.

For buying (ABC):

A. Assess Quality, Management and Valuation (QMV)

B. Buy good quality stocks.

C. Buy these stocks at a discount (Margin of Safety)

(If you select your stocks carefully, often one can hold them for long periods. The idea is to allow compounding over the long period to work in your favour.)


For selling (1,2,3,4):

1. If you need cash for emergency. (But then, hopefully, you will have separate money for such emergencies. The cash invested into the market should be separate.)

2. You will need to sell URGENTLY (QUICKLY) if there is something wrong with the fundamental of your stock (example: fraudulent accounting, etc). At other instances, you do have the time to SELL at leisure.

3. Your stock has gone up too high. By your assessment, at that price the upside return is less, but the downside risk is more, then you may wish to sell to REINVEST INTO ANOTHER STOCK WITH MORE FAVOURABLE UPSIDE REWARD/DOWNSIDE RISK RATIO.

4. On occasions, you have identified a very good BARGAIN, you may wish to sell some of your stocks to REINVEST into these stocks to capture a higher upside/downside reward risk ratio that these stocks offer.

Defensive Portfolio Management = 2.
This is to prevent harm to the portfolio.
Urgent attention needed.

Offensive Portfolio Management = 3 & 4.
This is to optimise returns of the portfolio.
Have the time to sell at leisure.


BB
"Investing should be fun and not a game."


http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2008/08/strategies-for-buying-and-selling-kiss.html

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 19:36 | Report Abuse

Investment Philosophy of Magellan Infrastructure Fund

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2010/07/desired-characteristics-for-potential.html


Your investing should be based on a sound philosophy.

The Investment Philosophy of Magellan Infrastructure Fund provides a good template for you to start.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 19:46 | Report Abuse

DJIA

2019 20,000
2100 1,000,000

Over the long term, the market will always go UP.

Period 81 years
CAGR 4.95%



The stock market has historically returned about 10 to 12% CAR per year. Thus, it is highly probable that the projected DJIA of 1,000,000 in the year 2100 is achievable. Think long term.


Interpretation:

Over the course of 81 periods your investment grew from DJIA 20,000.00 to DJIA 1,000,000.00, its compound annual growth rate, or its overall return, is 4.95%.

CAGR essentially smoothes out the progress of your investment over a period of time, providing a clearer picture of your annual return.

However, although your investment started at DJIA of 20,000.00 and ended with DJIA of 1,000,000.00, its growth in any one year may have been quite a bit higher or even negative (if the investment ever lost money over that time).

The CAGR figure may give the impression that the investment has produced a stable return throughout its life, even if the investment was extremely volatile, fluctuating a great deal from year to year.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-19 20:28 | Report Abuse

are you investing in Bursa or DJ ?

it is true, DJIA has been going up long term

but not Malaysia

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-19 20:28 | Report Abuse

stop dreaming

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-19 20:30 | Report Abuse

now you know how it tastes


Posted by 3iii > Apr 19, 2019 7:08 PM | Report Abuse


PERHAPS, I should forgive icon8888's arrogance in this post of his.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-20 02:26 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 > Apr 19, 2019 6:35 PM | Report Abuse

There is room for improvement
==========

improve...every thing also can improve.

but don't improve also quite ok one....as long as it is quality stuffs and low turnover.

and so easy even...

But human beings constantly want to improve, change stuffs, to what end?

more money? more stress? more children? more wars?

and in my case, for the trill of it.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-20 07:16 | Report Abuse

Page 37 of his book.

Howard Marks wrote that we usually see only one major cycle per decade. Anyone who is going to rely solely on the amassing of experience for his progress had better have a lot og patience.


Comment: in perspective, Howard had made 5 calls correctly in his 50 years of investing and all these coincided with the extremes of the market cycle.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-20 07:21 | Report Abuse

Chapter 1 Why study cycles?

Allows us to tilt the odds in our favour by being more defensive or aggressive accordingly depending on where we are in the market cycle or the investing environment.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-20 07:26 | Report Abuse

Investing is a matter of preparing for the financial future. It is simple to define the tasks: we assemble portfolios today that we hope will benefit from the events that unfold in the YEARS AHEAD. (Howard Marks).

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-20 08:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by (2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip > 2019-04-20 08:20 | Report Abuse

This is silly, arguing for arguing sakes. Its very simple to see that Howard marks buys when it has value and sells when everyone is overvaluing. I learned from him you buy for the long term but you monitor quarterly.

If you have a paid subscription to gurufocus, you will know that he has 84 stocks currently in his portfolio list. Some are distressed debt, held and sold within 3 years, some are undervalued growth which is kept within 5 years, and some like unitau the Brazilian bank he has bought for a long time and adds more with every 10k submission ( +8 years). Stop pigeonholing Howard marks into one simple metric, that man is wiser than you think.

Stop just reading his old books, if you invest in oaktree capital funds( my wife does), you get to enjoy his memos and letters and his investment philosophy.

Warren buys and hold companies ( or like me legacy stocks with strong long term performance) because you need to keep up a reputation as a caretaker of business.

In terms of stocks you can only enjoy capital gains and dividends as a minority investor. Your only true compass is yearly earnings growth.

So yes Warren buffet and Howard marks both hold long term ( coca cola and banks) and short term ( Berkshire bought 2b oracle in 3q and zero shares in 4q).

And no both of you are wrong. Howard marks doesn't buy based on market cycle ( like Calvin tan with his o&g calls and ecrl etc), he uses it as a guide to understand RISK ( where we are in the business cycle). He still buys COMPANIES based on its individual merits, margin of safety and long term prospects.

Like any normal investors should.

He however judges by how much he can lose in relation to the success probability, rather than how much he can earn.

>>>>>>
Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 19, 2019 11:49 AM | Report Abuse

When come to timing market cycles, I agree with you it is easy say than done

I am seldom successful in doing that

But we are not arguing about the merit of timing market cycles, we are arguing whether Howard mark holds long term. The answer is NO, because Howard mark times market cycles

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-20 08:48 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHYYLQnsQPk

Howard Marks: My Six Key Tenets of Successful Investing (Audio)

@17.45 Tenet no. 6: INVEST FOR THE LONG TERM

Posted by (2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip > 2019-04-20 08:57 | Report Abuse

Just ignore icon8888 he is a big time troll. He acts as if he is very good in investing with 160% returns in his portfolio, but his actual long term returns are very poor ( he thinks bursa is a poor performing stock exchange) and his actual portfolio is actually very small.

No difference between him, Calvin tan and choi yi kit capital.

Add his long term winners and his long term losers, all you get is a very bitter old lady.

His views are actually very harmful especially because like Calvin tan (who hides his losers under the rug and promotes his winners) he actually has a few followers who read his "beliefs".

>>>>>

How many pages of Howard Mark has you read ? I have read the entire book. You can fool others, but cannot fool me.

>>>>>

Whatever Howard mark said doesn't bother me . I didn't even watch his video

I am just saying it casually (the bull market until 2020). I could be wrong, doesn't matter. No harm having a view on certain thing, but bear in mind there is not sufficient data to deem it a high probability event

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-20 09:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-20 11:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-20 11:19 | Report Abuse

From whatever I can gather, Icon is also good in what he do.....

I think he is a good investor, trader/ speculator. Maybe not the 1% but surely the 10%.


But its tough.....tougher than 3iii/ Philips method.


Besides investing, Icon is also a politician. So, slightly different la.

Posted by Lukey_Greek > 2019-04-21 11:47 | Report Abuse

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

You can easily find Howard Marks' historical memos since 1996 from the above link. He has shared his view on where we stand on current cycle via his memo "The Seven Worst Words in the World" dated Sep 26, 2018.

In additional, he never advise us to time the cycle, but prepare for it.

The below are few examples preparations we could do during down cycle (based on my limited understanding) :

1) lower exposures/ lower leveraging; and/or
2) holding portfolio with lower beta, i.e. have a zero or -ve co-relationship with market; and/or
3) shorter investment period, e.g. +ve return in short period of time

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-21 13:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-22 06:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-22 08:09 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-22 08:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-22 08:16 | Report Abuse

My advice and my primary approach is to treat the stock market as one big marketplace to buy wonderful companies for the long term and not to make money from trades.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-22 15:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-22 20:46 | Report Abuse

market very bullish. Not joining the party ? or you are still waiting for warren buffet to come and rescue you ?

Posted by probability > 2019-04-22 20:53 | Report Abuse

3ii is a strong believer of long holding....

at times likes this to avoid any wrong temptations...he will not come to i3...he wont even peek at the stock market...

Posted by probability > 2019-04-22 20:55 | Report Abuse

3ii is like the monk who will close his eyes...when a voluptuous sexy lady pass by..he he

Posted by probability > 2019-04-22 20:57 | Report Abuse

and...end up at the night masturbating

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-22 21:03 | Report Abuse

This is exactly what I said of him few weeks back (hot chicks and HJ)

LOL


Posted by probability > Apr 22, 2019 8:57 PM | Report Abuse

and...end up at the night masturbating

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-22 22:04 | Report Abuse

Oh dear. Mrs Probability will be disappointed.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-24 15:18 | Report Abuse

Wah market is boiling ....

How ?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-24 20:19 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/905223938.jsp
Penny Stocks: Pump and Dump (SELL TO SUCKERS)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-24 20:21 | Report Abuse

so everybody else are suckers, and you are the wise man

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-25 12:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-25 14:06 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/discuss/2708414.jsp

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-25 20:16 | Report Abuse

Today rainy day... bad time for 3iii selling oranges in Pasar malam

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-26 14:18 | Report Abuse

3iii may not be the most profitable approach.

But 3iii and Philips approach is best approach / most suitable approach for the majority.

icon.....for pros like u and me, we are exempt lah.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-26 14:19 | Report Abuse

look at Seacera..........today go PN 17..........for people who don't keep to quality, they can die with Seacera and so much news recently.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-26 14:32 | Report Abuse

in the case of Armada, I buy only after it was reported Armada is close to getting US$ 500 million loan...without this Armada also can go PN 17..

With $ 7 billion of its borrowings due by May, and must be restructured/ refinanced, the pressure is on the Company to deliver. Reported today that Company is close to getting a US$ 500 million loan. Previously reported that bankers are giving a cold shoulder to the request.

from https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/199602.jsp


me? I think bankers will not approve the refinancing unless they think this company still got hope. If no hope, from bankers perspective, it is better to kill it earlier than later. At the moment NTA still high enough .

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-26 16:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-26 16:19 | Report Abuse

Posted by 3iii > Apr 26, 2019 4:11 PM | Report Abuse

What are your investment objectives?
==========

excitement, trill, challenging, loves it....and of course make money too.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-26 16:20 | Report Abuse

Posted by 3iii > Apr 26, 2019 4:11 PM | Report Abuse

Are you achieving them?
===========

of course, in every aspect.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2019-04-26 16:33 | Report Abuse

between quality and kc/otb/sslee/stockraider/calvin values I will also choose quality any time.

value investors can be sucked into Seacera, quality people will never be sucked into seacera.