Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 14:48 | Report Abuse

The rational investor is diligent, sceptical and appropriately risk-adverse at all times, but also on the lookout for opportunities for potential return that more than compensates for risk. That is the ideal.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 15:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 15:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 15:31 | Report Abuse

Cycles will happen. What you do in response is key. How you deal with cycles is one of the most important things in investing.

There are many approaches but none of them offers a foolproof technique for deciding how to position portfolios. They all all just ways to think systematically about something that is not subject to easy answers. However, they are superior to deciding on the basis of emotion, guesswork or just following the herd.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 15:34 | Report Abuse

There is no tactic or approach that always works.

The only way to try to be correctly positioned as the cycle moves is to make well-reasoned judgements and adjust the attributes employed. It is not easy.

Many things are not knowable.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 15:40 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 15:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-18 15:52 | Report Abuse

flight to quality and flight to export shares ok one......

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/202913.jsp

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-18 15:55 | Report Abuse

Buffalo meat on hot teppanyaki plate , 3iii finding time difficult to pass ..

"ohhhh when is the next crash coming so that I can stop wiping tables at mc Donald...?"

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 16:03 | Report Abuse

How?


Try to travel into the future and look back. In 2023, do you think you are more likely to say,

(1) - "Back in 2018, I wish I'd been more aggressive" or
(2) - "Back in 2018, I wish I'd been more defensive"?

And is there anything today about which you'd be likely to say,
(3) - "In 2018, I missed the chance of a lifetime to buy xyz"?




What you think you might say a few years down the road can help you figure out what you should do today.

The above decisions relate directly to the choice between:

- aggressiveness and
- defensiveness.

When an investor wants to reduce his chance of losing money, he should invest more defensively.

More worried about missing opportunity? In that case, increased aggressiveness is called for.




Varying one's stance should be done in response to where the market stands in its cycle. Again, this can be approached in assessing the two elements in the market:

- how the market is valued and
- how other investors are behaving.



When most investors are behaving aggressively, that is a good signal that the market is a risky place, since little risk aversion is being applied.

- Investor's aggressiveness is likely to have resulted directly in elevated asset prices.
- The aggressiveness of others makes the market risky for us.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-18 16:04 | Report Abuse

False positive False negative

not easy to handle.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 16:31 | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by qqq3 > Apr 18, 2019 4:04 PM | Report Abuse

False positive False negative

not easy to handle.
>>>


qqq3 your comment is more intelligent than the tail-less musang. :-)

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 16:32 | Report Abuse

Type 1 or type 2 errors.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 16:34 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-18 16:49 | Report Abuse

LOL now you are talking 10 years later...

Howard Mark says “Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.”

Please don't talk 10 years later with me. I am busy counting money NOW

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 16:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-18 17:01 | Report Abuse

Posted by 3iii > Apr 14, 2019 7:34 PM | Report Abuse

In the bear market, I have opportunities to buy my shares cheap.
==============


in bear market, still got money meh?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-18 17:21 | Report Abuse

Which part says he is Long term ?

He is silent on that (unless I miss it out)

Please provide me with info

I am genuinely interested

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 17:52 | Report Abuse

Quoting Howard Mark:



How?


Try to travel into the future and look back. In 2023, do you think you are more likely to say,

(1) - "Back in 2018, I wish I'd been more aggressive" or
(2) - "Back in 2018, I wish I'd been more defensive"?

And is there anything today about which you'd be likely to say,
(3) - "In 2018, I missed the chance of a lifetime to buy xyz"?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-18 17:53 | Report Abuse

?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-18 17:54 | Report Abuse

where is the Howard mark quote about long term ?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-18 17:57 | Report Abuse

if Howard did not ask , I will ask........come 2013...........

Did you have the foresight to buy Jaks in early 2019?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-18 17:59 | Report Abuse

2023

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 18:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-18 18:23 | Report Abuse

if Howard did not ask , I will ask........come 2023...........

Did you have the foresight to buy Jaks in early 2019?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 18:26 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 18:30 | Report Abuse

https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/tactical-dynamic-asset-allocation-or_11.html?m=1

WEDNESDAY, 11 JULY 2012
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation, sounds easier than is practical

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-18 19:31 | Report Abuse

tactical asset allocation......that is what all CFAs and fund managers do..........

for retailers no need la.....

for retail investors, just stick to the best....

for speculators/ traders......its S = Q r

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-18 21:20 | Report Abuse

DJIA

2019 20,000
2100 1,000,000

Over the long term, the market will always go UP.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-19 10:51 | Report Abuse

YOU ARE WRONG

How many pages of Howard Mark has you read ? I have read the entire book. You can fool others, but cannot fool me.

When he said " ... positioning portfolios for the major cycles has been a big contributor to Oaktree's success", he is saying that investors should make an effort to time the market cycles (one of the very few gurus who advocates doing so), because he believes that it will make a big difference in enhancing long term performance.

What he means is that when the cycle peaks, you should deleverage or allocate your assets to big caps, which are less volatile. And when everyone is bearish, you should increase your risk appetite.

That is all he has said. He has never mentioned whether you should hold long term or not. He is silent on that (while you are putting words in his mouth saying that he favours longterm-ism).




Posted by 3iii > Apr 18, 2019 6:21 PM | Report Abuse

icon8888


You need to read carefully.

Here is another passage by Howard Mark.


The reasonableness of the effort at cycle timing depends simply on what you expect of it.

IF you frequently try to discern where we are in the cycle in the sense of "what is going to happen tomorrow?" OR "what is in store for us next month?" You are unlikely to find success.

NO one can make fine distinctions like those often enough or consistently right enough to add materially to investment results.


On the other hand, positioning portfolios for the major cycles has been a big contributor to Oaktree's success.





Comment:

What Howard wrote is common sense. I have know of these points for a long time. Tactical asset allocation is not easy to implement except in the extremes of the cycles, i.e. over-exuberant the bubble or the severe bear stages.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-19 11:13 | Report Abuse

when Howard Mark said the paragraphs below, he means you should not try to time the market based on days or weeks ("next month")

I wholeheartedly agree with him on that

but that doesn't mean he holds long term like 5 to 10 years

he is silent on that

as a matter of fact, he is against that. If you read his book carefully, you will notice that he thinks it is a mistake to stay defensive when the market is bullish (and conversely, when market is toppish). He advocates adopting a flexible stance, time the MAJOR market cycles (even though might not be successful) and reallocate your assets to protect your gain or generate new gains

it is totally different from your blind blind long term hold strategy




=======================

Howard : IF you frequently try to discern where we are in the cycle in the sense of "what is going to happen tomorrow?" OR "what is in store for us next month?" You are unlikely to find success.

NO one can make fine distinctions like those often enough or consistently right enough to add materially to investment results.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 11:34 | Report Abuse

>>>
Quoting Howard Mark:



How?


Try to travel into the future and look back. In 2023, do you think you are more likely to say,

(1) - "Back in 2018, I wish I'd been more aggressive" or
(2) - "Back in 2018, I wish I'd been more defensive"?

And is there anything today about which you'd be likely to say,
(3) -
"In 2018, I missed the chance of a lifetime to buy xyz"?

>>>


The above are from Howard Mark's book.

It is obvious to me that he asked his readers to think long-term (?5 years).

Of course, Howard Mark is an accomplished investor.

He has been studying the market cycle for his life and hoping to take advantage that the market price fluctuations can offer to his investment returns.

He also does not restrict himself to just owning great companies. As long as the company is undervalued, he might be interested. I am sure he also have some money in short term plays but his thinking is definitely long term in his approach to building portfolio value over the long term.

His book on mastering the market cycle is a good read, but it is unlikely to be easy to implement for most investors.

I have been studying the market cycles too for a long time and have already some opinion on how to take advantage of market cycles.

Market cycles or fluctuations - you can try to time the market or to price the market (Ben Graham). It is better to price the market. Market cycles or fluctuations work for me because it coincides with the pricing of these stocks at levels that I find attractive.

Once again, tactical dynamic asset allocation sounds good in theory but difficult to put in practice all the time. But, the few occasions when I have done so successfully were at the extremes of the stock markets. You generally have the feeling (gut) that the market was far to high or far too low, on the few rare occasions. At other times, just be honest with yourself that the market is priced fairly.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-19 11:41 | Report Abuse

yes, when he said ""In 2018, I missed the chance of a lifetime to buy xyz"? , he could means buying in 2018 and hold until 2023. That is the long term by your definition. I have no issue with that.

But that doesn't mean he is not at the same time punting non-long term by riding on cyclical upturns.

I saw an egg on the table, I said, "this is an egg"

you saw an egg on the table, you said "this is the only egg in the world"




Try to travel into the future and look back. In 2023, do you think you are more likely to say,

(1) - "Back in 2018, I wish I'd been more aggressive" or
(2) - "Back in 2018, I wish I'd been more defensive"?

And is there anything today about which you'd be likely to say,
(3) -
"In 2018, I missed the chance of a lifetime to buy xyz"?

>>>


The above are from Howard Mark's book.

It is obvious to me that he asked his readers to think long-term (?5 years).

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-19 11:49 | Report Abuse

When come to timing market cycles, I agree with you it is easy say than done

I am seldom successful in doing that

But we are not arguing about the merit of timing market cycles, we are arguing whether Howard mark holds long term. The answer is NO, because Howard mark times market cycles

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 16:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 16:02 | Report Abuse

The greatest source of investment risk is the belief that there is no risk.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 16:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 16:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 16:22 | Report Abuse

The most important thing to note is that MAXIMUM psychology, maximum availability of credit, maximum price, minimum potential return and maximum risk all are reaches at the SAME TIME and usually these extremes coincide with the last paroxysm of buying.


In reverse, the NADIR of psychology, a total inability to access credit, minimum price, maximum potential return and minimum risk all coincide at the bottom, when the last optimist throws in the towel.


It is usually during market slides that you can buy the largest quantities of the thing you want, from sellers who are throwing in the towel and while the non-knife-catchers are hugging the sidelines.

At the bottom, by definition there are few sellers left to sell and during the ensuing rally it's buyers who predominate. Thus, the selling dries up and would-be buyers face growing competitions.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 16:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 16:30 | Report Abuse

Mastering the Market Cycle (Howard Marks)

Pages 313 to 315

It is entirely reasonable to try to improve LONG TERM INVESTMENT RESULTS by altering positions on the basis of an understanding of the market cycle.

But it is essential that you also understand the limitations, as well as the skills that are required and how difficult it is.

Posted by enigmatic > 2019-04-19 16:33 | Report Abuse

@3iii,
in your view, which stage is our current market in right now?
do you think it's wiser to get in while the benchmark KLCI is at almost a 3 yr low or wait until signs of an uptrend is visible?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-19 17:37 | Report Abuse

3iii missed a once in a decade opportunity by failing to act in early 2019 to capitalise on low asset price brought about by the 2018 bear market

my opinion

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-19 17:38 | Report Abuse

dogmatism is a big sin

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 18:16 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIlH1Z0wFp8&feature=youtu.be

Where are we in the cycle today?

Listen to Howard Marks in this video.

This video, Howard Marks highlightened all the main points of his book.

These were similar to the notes I shared.


>>>
enigmatic @3iii,
in your view, which stage is our current market in right now?
do you think it's wiser to get in while the benchmark KLCI is at almost a 3 yr low or wait until signs of an uptrend is visible?
19/04/2019 4:33 PM
>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-19 18:17 | Report Abuse

I think we are still at early stage of bull

will last until end 2020

because US presidential election November 2020

market usually up in election year

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 18:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 18:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-19 18:27 | Report Abuse

icon

3iii is not doing the wrong thing u know?

At least, unlike that KC who years earlier wanted to buy Mesdaq shares for KYY.

1 the client cannot relate to such shares
2 he is too interested in results.
3 good client managers know what clients need and want.


like 3 iii here....follow him ok one...focus, concentrated in good quality shares, not too interested in chasing results, low turnover.............its actually suitable for most people.....people who really cannot afford the risks.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-04-19 18:31 |

Post removed.Why?