Posted by 4444 > 2018-08-26 19:07 | Report Abuse

Trapped in Bonia?

This leaves the following stocks, with history of durable competitive advantage, in this list for further analysis.

Bonia
DLady
F&N

Nestle
Padini
PPB
QL

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-27 08:05 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-27 08:09 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-27 08:13 | Report Abuse

REITS and Returns


Funds from operations (FFO) is an important measure of a REIT's operating performance.

FFO includes all income after operating expenses, but before depreciation and amortization.

Growth in FFO typically comes from:
higher revenues,
lower costs, and,
management's effective recognition of new business opportunities.

REITs with a growing FFO are generally more desirable,because this is a demonstration of an ability
to raise rents and
keep occupancy stable.

Beware of dividends that are being paid out of profit from the sale of property or from cash reserves; these payments may not be sustainable.

The National Association of REal Estate Trusts (NAREIT at www.nareit.com ) defines FFO as net income (excluding gains or losses from sales of property or debt restructuring) with the depreciation of real estate added back.

Most commercial real estate holds its value longer and more fully than other tangible equipment that a business may possess, such as tools or vehicles.

The depreciation that the accounting process records each year is often overstated.

Current accounting processes may call for depreciation of a building (according to a certain formula) even though the real value of the building may have increased due to outside forces like
increased demand or
low supply of vacancies
in the area where the building is located.

For this reason, adding back the depreciation is a clearer way to measure the operating profits of one REIT against another.

FFO is more like the cash flow measures used to evaluate other businesses, and in most cases more completely demonstrates annual performance.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-27 08:14 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-27 08:20 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-27 10:39 | Report Abuse

2 important articles to guide the REIT investors.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2016/10/security-commission-proposals-push.html

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/01/rights-issues-by-reits-tough-sell.html

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-27 12:40 | Report Abuse

Knowing how to invest is NOT the same as knowing how to invest well and safely.


Analogy: Knowing how to drive is NOT the same as knowing how to drive well and safely.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 08:38 | Report Abuse

More than 70% of traders will lose nearly all their money!

This is solid proof that the majority of traders and investors are dumb money.




What is the Dumb Money Doing Wrong?

First and foremost, the dumb money act as a herd or mob. This group exhibits very little individual decision making.

This is exemplified by how the herd follows the financial news so religiously. The financial news is a severe lagging indicator. This is because reporters only report after the fact.

It is so silly that people actually think they will gain knowledge that will allow them to have “the edge” in the markets. This isn’t possible because millions of other competing investors are watching the same news!

The news is notoriously bullish right before a bear market and bearish right before the market starts soaring.

Posted by ProfitSonar > 2018-08-28 10:15 | Report Abuse

What Happens When You Don’t Buy Quality And When You Do? by Sanjay Bakshi

How I Made a Killing in the Stock Market
I’d like to start by telling you a story about a killing I made in the stock market many years ago involving a very cool risk arbitrage operation. By 2001, I had accumulated six years of experience in risk arbitrage with very satisfactory overall results because the arb spreads were very good as the competition was low. So, in December 2001 this company announced a buyback at Rs 250 per share. I bought the stock at Rs 215, held it for about 40 days and then just prior to the tender offer, I sold it for Rs 240, netting a gain of Rs 25 on an investment of Rs 215. That’s a flat return of about 12% and an IRR of about 110%. Not bad at all!
What was the name of the company? Gee, I wish I could get away without telling you my trade secrets but I confessed today morning that I will tell you everything. The name of that company was MICO. Now, it’s called Bosch Ltd (NSE:BOSCHLTD) (BOM:500530).

Some of the dumbest things I have done have produced very high IRRs.

Let me now tell you about another fascinating experience with Graham’s low-priced common stocks theme.

Low-Priced Common Stocks
This is another one very cool Graham and Dodd strategy that works during severe bear markets. It really does.

Graham called it the “low-priced-common stock” strategy which involved selectively buying shares of companies selling at absolute low price (so called penny stocks) during severe bear markets and holding them for a few years. He cautioned investors against the typical penny stocks of dubious companies which were “pushed” by intermediaries who were incentivised by fat commissions. He wrote such penny stocks were not genuine at all and their pseudo-low prices were

“accomplished by the simple artifice of creating so large a number of shares that even at a few dollars per share the total value of the common issue is excessive.”

He recommended that investors should buy low-priced common stocks of the genuine variety which

“will show an aggregate value for the issue which is small in relation to the company’s assets, sales, and past and prospective profits under favorable business conditions.”

Using his approach of finding such companies, back in the scary days of March 2009, I came up with a few names which displayed the characteristics of the genuine variety of low-priced common stocks:

Low absolute price;
A huge drop in stock price from its previous high;
A very low equity market in relation to size of company’s revenues (i.e. A PSR <20%); and
A high cash flow yield (operating cash flow/EV > 20%).
Here’s what happened to two of those names over the next three years Omax Auto:+131% ; Nifty:+96% ; Nestle:+192% ; Finolex Cables:+68%

As the charts show, I would have been better off buying a Nestle (a far better quality business) instead of buying Finolex or Omax. Indeed, you can virtually take any number of much higher quality businesses than Finolex Industries Limited (NSE:FINPIPE) (BOM:500940) and Omax Autos Limited (NSE:OMAXAUTO) (BOM:520021) and you’d find that while Graham’s low-priced common stock strategy works quite well, buying better quality businesses would have worked even better.

Let’s now turn to looking at three of India’s well-recognised high-quality businesses.

ITC Limited
Take a look at ITC Limited (NSE:ITC) (BOM:500875), one of India’s high-quality businesses. The chart below plots its stock price and P/E multiple since Jan 2002. The stock price (blue) is on the left vertical axis and the P/E (red) is in the right vertical axis.

Quality Stocks

As you can see the stock has done very well over the long term. Now take a look at the P/E part of the chart. The P/E of ITC has ranged from a low of 11 in March 2003 to a high of 39 in July 2013. Let’s ignore these two extremes and focus on the P/E band of 25 which I have highlighted in the red rectangle.

Now, think about this for a moment. Paying 25 times earnings is considered as very risky and speculative by classic Graham & Dodd investors, right? I mean, most deep value investors, who consider themselves to be disciples of Ben Graham won’t touch a stock with a P/E multiple of 25.

So, let’s see what happened to people who bought the stock at a P/E multiple of 25 in the past and held the stock till date. The table below highlights several such occasions

Source: https://www.valuewalk.com/2014/11/happens-dont-buy-quality/

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 11:53 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 12:10 | Report Abuse

Stay with Quality.

Quality first, then Price.


Why quality?

The great company with a business with durable competitive advantage delivers a lot of value over the long term.

You are betting on its earning power.

This earning power over the long term delivers you the great returns you desire.



How to price these great companies?

At a certain price, every stock is expensive, at another price, it is fairly priced and at another, it is cheap.

By foraging in the quality segment of the stock market for great stock, you will soon find that these stocks are usually priced fairly or above fair price. Very occasionally, it is undervalued and rarely, severely undervalued.

Be patient, you can often get them at fair valuation.

Buffett advises: "It is better to own a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price."

Please follow this advice strictly and you can be certain your investing for the long term will be safe and very rewarding.

Of course, a great company maybe a very poor investment when you overpay to own it.

BUT be also prepared to pay a little bit more than the fair price (don't squibble over the sens) to own a great company.

The slightly higher price one pays become insignificant after many years of great returns and does not impair your compounding return very much especially since you will be virtually married to the company for the lifetime.



So, Mr. raider, my dishonest friend in various forum, shouted and cursed often. A particular company was overpriced at $60, then $80, and so on. Now its price is $140 per share. Another company was too expensive (no margin of safety) when it was at $14 per share, then $40, also at $50. Today it is around $60+.

So was Mr. raider right or wrong?

1. If he were right.

Then at anytime of his shouting and cursing, asking people to sell this stock, the event subsequently should revealed a negative return based on the prices then. But this wasn't the case.

Ah, yes, he might say, in the future. To shout a price without a time frame is not a good call indeed.

2. If he were wrong.

YES. He was definitely wrong. In fact, the prices of these stocks at today's level may be too "OVERVALUED" for now. Who knows for sure? Valuation is not an exact science.

But the truth is these stocks 8 years ago, 6 years ago, 3 years ago or a year ago, were severely undervalued. This was despite raider shouting they were overpriced.

Did raider undervalued QUALITY? His poor judgement is fine with those who are taking the opposite view. Who cares? After all, those in these stocks are CRYING ALL THE WAY TO THE BANKS.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 12:22 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 12:30 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 12:33 |

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Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-28 12:35 | Report Abuse

buy and hold for eternity?

I strongly disagree....

u know the world economic situation or not?

Posted by stockraider > 2018-08-28 12:39 | Report Abuse

Remember this loh....!!

Dishonest 3iii trying to twist & turn loh....counters like nestle, dlady & petdag trading at PE 35 to 50x....with limited growth opportunity and low dividend yield of below par 1% to 2% pa....whats day to look forward leh ??

Raider not asking....u all.....to buy over value goreng stock loh....but of course go and buy into undervalue stock....with margin of safety, got growth opportunity and with reasonable good dividend yield of 3% to 7% pa mah....!!

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 12:54 | Report Abuse

For the true novice.


Your first stock ...

You should buy what you know.

It doesn't have to go up in order to have been a success.

You are going to spend a lot of time getting to know your first stock pick, so you might as well enjoy it.


The primary goal of your first stock is to get you started and learning about investing.

1. It must be a stock that is interesting to you.

2. It must have financials and a business strategy that you understand

3. It must be a company you'll enjoy following and talking about with fellow investors.


Peter Lynch: "Buy what you know." :thumbsup:

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 12:59 | Report Abuse

The first stock you should own is one that provides steady growing dividends.

There is a reason for this. As a new investor in the market, you will need to go through a steep learning curve to understand what market fluctuations mean to you and your investing. By owning a good dividend growth stock, bought at a reasonable price, you are better placed to handle the market fluctuations, especially when the market goes down severely.

You can be happy to see the dividends coming into your portfolio. When the market prices drop, you can still be comforted by receiving these dividends. Moreover, the DYs at the lower prices are relatively better than the returns from other of your investments. So you may not be easily scared off the stock by selling when its price drops. When the price recovers, you would have made even more money then.

For these reasons, your first stock should be one that is dividend paying, and preferably one that is dividend growth stock. Of course, as usual stay with the tenets of Buffett in always buying high quality companies: 1. Know the business 2. Has durable competitive advantages 3. Honest management and 4. At fair or bargain price.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 13:11 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 13:18 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 13:19 | Report Abuse

If you make dividend stocks and blue-chip value stocks the core of your portfolio, you will be able to make a lot of wrong calls on risky stocks before they can cause too much damage. This is especially important for the beginning investors.

Dividend-paying stocks can work for you, no matter who you are or what your investing experience. Whatever your experience, dividends should fill an important role in your stock portfolio. You don't have to worry about the daily gyrations of your stock prices, if the general stock market is up or down. Dividends are just about the perfect way to generate winning returns over years if not decades.

Great blue chip companies selling at a discount provide a solid base that can defend your portfolio against the worst the market has to offer. Blue chip value stocks have made up all or nearly all of the portfolios of many legendary investors, and for good reason. With their stability, they don't require the same level of vigilance by investors. They aren't going to be as volatile. Shares rarely plummet when growth projections are missed. And, they usually increase in value over time. You should be quite fond of blue-chip value stocks.


Dividend payers and blue chip value stocks are extremely attractive and provide a foundation of a fully diversified portfolio, but they are just the start.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 13:28 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 15:53 |

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Posted by stockraider > 2018-08-28 16:18 | Report Abuse

Warren Buffet says if he manage a small fund instead of billion & billions of funds....he can make very much higher return something like 50% to 100% pa compare with less than 20% pa now loh... why leh ??

Bcos if u follow...MR market & margin of safety principle as propose by Ben Graham (w.buffet sifu)...the return is very much higher return loh....!!

Just that W.buffet is managing too large of a funds...so he chose less involvement....& attention mah....!!

But if your fund is small and u r prepare for more involvement...better chose Ben Graham ....Mr mkt strategy and margin of safety compare with warren buffet holding overvalue quality stock forever loh....!!

Ask yourself, do u have w.buffet monies or not ??
If negative....better go & make monies 1st loh....!!

Posted by ProfitSonar > 2018-08-28 19:24 | Report Abuse

Posted by 3iii > Aug 25, 2018 09:12 AM | Report Abuse
My simple advice to the young investors. In your early years, perhaps, park some money in funds. Why? Because you may not have acquired the knowledge or skill to navigate your own investing.

Hopefully, while being invested in the market in funds, you would have taken the initiative to acquire and learn on investing and reach a level of confidence to invest on your own.

Those still incapable for various reasons, would have acquired enough skill or knowledge, to search out the right fund manager to park their money or be happy with just index linked funds.
============================================
Me : Which is better fund to park money in Malaysia ? ETF or UT/MF ?

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 22:30 | Report Abuse

ProfitSonar

I do my own investing. I do not invest in mutual funds, though I have money in iCap closed end fund, managed by Tan Teng Boo.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 22:35 | Report Abuse

Investment Policies (Based on Benjamin Graham)
Summary of Investment Policies

A. INVESTMENT FOR FIXED INCOME:
US Savings Bonds (FDs or Amanah Sahams for Malaysians)

B. INVESTMENT FOR INCOME, MODERATE LONG-TERM APPRECIATION AND PROTECTION AGAINST INFLATION:
(1) INVESTMENT FUNDS bought at reasonable price.
(2) Diversified list of primary common stocks (BLUE CHIPS) bought at reasonable price.

C. INVESTMENT CHIEFLY FOR PROFIT: 4 approaches are open to both the small and the large investors:
(1) Representative common stocks bought when the MARKET level is clearly LOW.
(2) GROWTH STOCKS, when these can be obtained at reasonable prices in relation to actual accomplishment – GROWTH INVESTING.
(3) Purchase of securities selling well BELOW INTRINSIC VALUE – VALUE INVESTING.
(4) Purchase of WELL-SECURED PRIVILEGED SENIOR ISSUES (bonds and preferred shares).
(5) SPECIAL SITUATIONS: Mergers, arbitrages, cash pay-outs.

D. SPECULATION:
(1) Buying stock in new or virtually new ventures (IPOs) .
(2) TRADING in the market.
(3) Purchase of "GROWTH STOCKS" at GENEROUS PRICES.


_______________


For DEFENSIVE INVESTORS: Portfolio A & B
(Portfolio A: Cash, FDs, Bonds Portfolio B: Mutual funds, Blue chips)

For ENTERPRISING INVESTORS: Portfolio A & B & C
(Portfolio C: Buy in Low Market, Buy Growth stocks at fair value, Buy value stocks i.e. bargains, High grade bonds and preferred shares, Arbitrages)

For SPECULATORS: Portfolio D
(Should set aside a sum for this separate from their money in investing.)




Comments:


1. This was my first article in my blog. It was summarized from the Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham.

2. Benjamin Graham advised all investors to have most of their money in A & B.

3. For the Enterprising Investors, they can also include C into their portfolio.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 23:03 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 23:17 | Report Abuse

REAL TOTAL RETURN: THE ONE REASON TO INVEST IN STOCKS


CAPITAL APPRECIATION + DIVIDENDS = TOTAL RETURN


CAPITAL APPRECIATION + DIVIDENDS + DIVIDEND GROWTH = REAL TOTAL RETURN

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 23:21 | Report Abuse

HOW DO YOU CHOOSE BETWEEN THE MANY PUBLICLY TRADED STOCKS?


NOT ALL STOCKS ARE GOOD INVESTMENTS

SOME ARE GOOD, MANY ARE BAD, AND OTHERS ARE SIMPLY UGLY

YOU MUST HAVE A FILTER AND A STRATEGY

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-28 23:21 | Report Abuse

THE DIVIDEND-YIELD THEORY:BUYING AND SELLING ARE TIED TO THE UNDERLYING YIELD


UNDERVALUE – YIELD IS HIGH AND PRICE IS LOW

OVERVALUE – YIELD IS LOW AND PRICE IS HIGH

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-08-28 23:26 | Report Abuse

The Art of War for stock market trading:

1. Know yourself, know your enemy, and you shall win a hundred battles without loss

If you can only break even every year, either you have not understood your own strength or the market enough

If you keep losing in the market, you definitely know too little about both.

2. Be like water. Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground over which it flows.

"It is a military axiom not to advance uphill against the enemy, nor to oppose him when he comes downhill."

Don't fight the trend; an object in motion is likely to stay in motion. Take the path of least resistance that has a high probability of success. A falling knife will do the most damage, avoid trying to catch it. Trend is your friend.

Don't be a perma-bull or bear on anything. Different sectors in the markets can be strong outperformers at different times. Be flexible to trading a variety of securities and even in both directions. Additionally, a market can be trending upwards, downwards, or in a choppy sideways trading range - water flows differently, depending on its surroundings - use different strategies or tweak techniques to what is working in the market currently.


3. The general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Go extra miles in doing research and calculations
for every ENTRY, RISK and POSITION SIZING


4. He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight


5.Treat your men as you would your own beloved son and they will follow you into the deepest valley.

Your dollars, your money, are your soldiers. Soldiers are a limited supply. Send them into battle in the markets only when you have confidence that they will succeed and conquer/multiply - when you see the probabilities are in your favor and there is an edge to be gained. Don't chase good money after bad, or after lost hopes, out of stubbornness.


6. Use local guides and neighboring princes to gain familiarity with the pitfalls and natural advantages of uncertain terrain.

You don't know everything about everything. Always be open to learning new techniques and trading strategies. Utilize the knowledge of the experienced and experts to increase the probability of success when foraying into the tricky waters of the markets


7. "Advance without coveting fame and retreat without fearing disgrace. Have your only thought be to protect the country and do good service for the sovereign."

Gaining profits over the long-term is the main goal in investing of any sort. Don't trade just to feed the ego and prove that you are smarter than the markets. Be willing to cut losses when the market tells you that a particular investment has gone awry. View a losing trade as a learning experience, rather than any kind of personal affront.


8. The control of a large force is the same principle as the control of a few men - it is merely a question of dividing up their numbers."

Whether you are a large or small investor, those dollar soldiers matter. Similar strategies can be applied regardless of account size. Use position sizing and systemized rules to avoid having too much at stake in any one investment. One rule of thumb is "sleep at night" - if a particular position is too large or too risky for you to sleep well at night, because you are thinking about if it goes wrong, you should probably pare it down or close it out.

Posted by ProfitSonar > 2018-08-29 01:23 | Report Abuse

Posted by 3iii > Aug 28, 2018 10:30 PM | Report Abuse

ProfitSonar

I do my own investing. I do not invest in mutual funds, though I have money in iCap closed end fund, managed by Tan Teng Boo. =========================================================
Me : Your sifu is it?

Posted by stockraider > 2018-08-29 21:42 | Report Abuse

Good example is nestle, dlady & petdag...just checkout why dividend yield is low leh ??

ans :Bcos overvalue mah...!!

Posted by 3iii > Aug 28, 2018 11:21 PM | Report Abuse

THE DIVIDEND-YIELD THEORY:BUYING AND SELLING ARE TIED TO THE UNDERLYING YIELD


UNDERVALUE – YIELD IS HIGH AND PRICE IS LOW

OVERVALUE – YIELD IS LOW AND PRICE IS HIGH

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-30 12:34 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/lettertomrooi/150349.jsp


Posted here for reference and for further understanding.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-30 12:40 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-30 13:31 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-30 13:36 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-30 13:39 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-30 13:40 | Report Abuse

LOW BUSINESS RISKS

The purpose of assessing business risk is to determine the predictability of cash flow and earnings projections. Businesses which are difficult to predict or could exhibit large variations in cash flows and earnings have high inherent business risk.

We assess business risk taking into account factors such as cyclicality, operating leverage, operating margin, financial leverage, competitive strength, regulatory and political environment and profitability.

We assign each company a risk assessment: low, medium and high. This is not an attempt to measure the volatility of the shares, but rather the predictability and strength of the underlying business.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-30 13:43 | Report Abuse

LOW AGENCY RISK

We term the risk surrounding the deployment of the free cash flow generated by a business as "agency risk’.

A fundamental assumption inherent in a standard discounted cash flow valuation (DCF) is that free cash flows are returned to shareholders or are re-invested at the cost of capital. The reality is that this assumption is often flawed as free cash flow is often not returned to shareholders but, rather, cash is re-invested by companies at returns below the cost of capital. In these cases, businesses can end up being worth substantially less than implied by a DCF analysis. We term the risk surrounding the deployment of the free cash flow generated by a business as agency risk.

A company which can deploy a substantial amount of free cash flow back into the business at attractive returns for a sustained period of time will almost certainly carry lower agency risk than a company which has limited opportunities to re-invest capital at attractive returns, unless the company is explicit about returning excess cash flow to shareholders via dividends and/or share buy-backs.

In assessing agency risk, we look at factors, including the structure and level of incentives offered to senior management, the level of share ownership by senior management and directors, the track record of management in pursuing acquisitions, the desire of management to grow their empire and the track record of management and the Board in acting in a shareholder friendly manner, including returning free cash flow to shareholders via share buy-backs and/or dividends.

An ideal investment will normally have a number of combined favourable attributes operating together which would illustrate what Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway describes as a Lollapalooza effect (which is a term for factors which will reinforce and greatly amplify each other).

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-30 13:44 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-30 13:49 | Report Abuse

<<<We will buy companies that have both low and higher price to earnings and price to book multiples provided that
- the business is outstanding and
- the shares are trading at an appropriate discount to our assessment of intrinsic value.>>>


Focus on Quality first, then price.

Your investing should be safe and rewarding over the long term.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-30 13:56 | Report Abuse

>>>LOW AGENCY RISK

We term the risk surrounding the deployment of the free cash flow generated by a business as "agency risk’.

A fundamental assumption inherent in a standard discounted cash flow valuation (DCF) is that free cash flows are returned to shareholders or are re-invested at the cost of capital. The reality is that this assumption is often flawed as free cash flow is often not returned to shareholders but, rather, cash is re-invested by companies at returns below the cost of capital. In these cases, businesses can end up being worth substantially less than implied by a DCF analysis. We term the risk surrounding the deployment of the free cash flow generated by a business as agency risk.<<<


Those who have invested into GENM will understand this issue very well.

GENM is a great business generating huge FCF. Alas, most of their redeployment of this FCF into new ventures generated low ROC over many years.

Hopefully, the GITP will deliver better returns. I think this project probably will.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-30 14:02 |

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Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-30 14:12 |

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