Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-30 14:21 | Report Abuse

Does margin of safety work?

It works well as an anesthetics numbing the senses...thus keeping losing positions forever.....that is the only function it has.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-30 15:43 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-30 16:30 |

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Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-30 16:57 | Report Abuse

how to be super investor?

have no fear.....and be lucky.

how to be super investor?

killer instinct....u got it or u don't

Posted by ProfitSonar > 2018-08-31 14:40 | Report Abuse

@3iii
Hi 3iii , what are the differences between owner's earnings and FCF ? what are the pros and cons of each ? can shed some light on which one you prefer to look at or use ?

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-31 15:29 | Report Abuse

So, would you be better to invest in a company that is earning 15 to 20% on the invested capital and compound it or have a 3% bond which can never earn more than 3% while you own it?

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-31 15:39 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-31 15:42 | Report Abuse

>>>Posted by qqq3 > Aug 30, 2018 02:21 PM | Report Abuse

Does margin of safety work?

It works well as an anesthetics numbing the senses...thus keeping losing positions forever.....that is the only function it has.<<<


It is just a safety factor.

It does not guarantee that you will not lose.

But in the event you make a mistake with intrinsic factor assessment, your loss will be less.

In the event you were correct in your assessment, the return will be more.

Margin of safety gives you a lower risk: higher reward scenario. that is lower your risk and giving you a potential higher return.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-31 15:45 | Report Abuse

Warren Buffett Says, "I'm Buying Stocks".

@1.00 min to 1.39 min

I am buying stock and I am not buying because I think the stock is going up next year.

I am buying because I think the stock will be worth a bit more money 10 or 20 years from now.

I don't know whether they are going to go up or down tomorrow, next week, next month or next year.

I do know good business is, in relation .... you have to measure investments in relation to each other.... and the alternative for most people it is fixed income and you get 3.02% or something like that for 30 years.

So, would you be better to invest in a company that is earning 15 to 20% on the invested capital and compound it or have a 3% bond which can never earn more than 3% while you own it?

https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2018/08/warren-buffett-says-im-buying-stocks.html

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-31 15:52 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/JTYeo/172130.jsp

The misunderstood idea - Value Investing

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-08-31 16:03 | Report Abuse

Posted by 3iii > Aug 31, 2018 03:42 PM | Report Abuse


But in the event you make a mistake with intrinsic factor assessment, your loss will be less.

In the event you were correct in your assessment, the return will be more.

Margin of safety gives you a lower risk: higher reward scenario. that is lower your risk and giving you a potential higher return.
=============


nonsense....all theseMS players, the moment the share goes up sell already...no more margin of safety.....

u want to talk about super investors....then talk about killer instinct, talk about traders with no fear.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-31 16:13 | Report Abuse

>>>>I am buying stock and I am not buying because I think the stock is going up next year.

I am buying because I think the stock will be worth a bit more money 10 or 20 years from now. <<<<<


Very true. Those who understood Buffett and who have adopted his philosophy will agree with the above whole-heartedly.

Will PBB be a bigger company 5 or 10 years from today?

Will Nestle be a bigger company 5 or 10 years from today?

Will Hartalega be bigger company 5 or 10 years from today?

Will company XYZ be a bigger company 5 or 10 years from today?


This is the question I sought an answer for when I invest in a company.



>>>>I don't know whether they are going to go up or down tomorrow, next week, next month or next year. <<<<


Very true. Market price can fluctuate a lot in the short term. It can go up 50% or down the equivalent 1/3rd all within a 52 week period without any significant changes in the fundamentals of the business.

Therefore, it is so important to know this, the market price can be divorced from intrinsic value in the short term. However, in the long term, > 2 years and certainly > 5 years of investing in a great business, the price generally follows the intrinsic value.



>>>>>I do know good business is, in relation .... you have to measure investments in relation to each other.... and the alternative for most people it is fixed income and you get 3.02% or something like that for 30 years. <<<<


Very true. Buffett's 4 tenets are: 1. Know the business (circle of competence) 2. Durable competitive advantage 3. Managers with integrity 4. Fair price (Margin of safety).

He knows a good business. He can determine its intrinsic value well. Intrinsic value of a business is the present value of all its future cash flows. He thus can assess the potential returns. He too compare this with what he can get from risk free fixed income investment (often quoted as the 10 year treasury bond rate).



>>>>So, would you be better to invest in a company that is earning 15 to 20% on the invested capital and compound it or have a 3% bond which can never earn more than 3% while you own it? <<<<

Very true. Here is where Buffett is superb. He has been able to find companies and grew his portfolio value at > 20% per year for a long time. Few can be Buffett. Let me share a point here. In fact, you can get 8 to 10% compounded return in your portfolio quite easily when invested in the Malaysian stock market. However, to get superior returns, you have to work a lot harder. The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham has taught various strategies for the enterprising investors who are willing to employ them for superior returns. Yet, he counselled that both the defensive and enterprising investors should have most of their money in blue chips, which should be a significant part of their portfolio.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-31 16:15 | Report Abuse

>>>>qqq3 Posted by 3iii > Aug 31, 2018 03:42 PM | Report Abuse


But in the event you make a mistake with intrinsic factor assessment, your loss will be less.

In the event you were correct in your assessment, the return will be more.

Margin of safety gives you a lower risk: higher reward scenario. that is lower your risk and giving you a potential higher return.
=============


nonsense....all theseMS players, the moment the share goes up sell already...no more margin of safety.....

u want to talk about super investors....then talk about killer instinct, talk about traders with no fear.
31/08/2018 16:03<<<<<




What is your definition of margin of safety?

Posted by ProfitSonar > 2018-08-31 16:20 | Report Abuse

So, would you be better to invest in a company that is earning 15 to 20% on the invested capital and compound it or have a 3% bond which can never earn more than 3% while you own it?
========================================================== Me : Are they any adjustment needed when you calculate earnings on invested capital? just take earning from Income Statement ?
==========================================================
Are there such thing as emerging moat (moat that is yet to be reflected in ROIC) ?
Is Amazon a good compounder ?

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-31 18:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by hollandking > 2018-08-31 18:46 | Report Abuse

yeah, agree with 3iii and 1 more thing, DISCIPLINE is very important. Always hold on to it or else u will regret it.

Posted by hollandking > 2018-08-31 18:46 | Report Abuse

discipline isnt as easy as one may think, u may think easy, but once tempted, u will crumbled.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-31 19:45 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-08-31 19:50 | Report Abuse

http://fusioninvestor.blogspot.com/2008/07/blog-capsule-bullbear-vs-moolah-on.html?m=0

WEDNESDAY, JULY 9, 2008
Blog Capsule: bullbear vs Moolah on PBBANK


Click the link.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 00:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-09-01 04:57 |

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Posted by qqq3 > 2018-09-01 05:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 06:37 | Report Abuse

>>>>this OTB, very good in rationalisation. I guess you can rationalise any thing if you put your efforts in it.

but rationalisation is different from critical thinking skills.

in a bull market environment, the rationaliser will make a lot of money if his life depends on pushing stocks.

in a different environment, critical thinking skills can help you see the silliness of the rationaliser.

you better equip yourself with critical thinking skills.....the stock promoter is not going to do it for you.

this rationalising OTB, when questioned, he can always be depended upon to draw out his fake records as defence......its an all purpose weapon.....always ready always used.<<<<



I thought he can do with a bit of humility.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 06:53 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/allaboutstocktrading/172151.jsp

Trading is different from long term investing.

As a trader, you should focus on being a good trader.

When it is time to buy, you buy.

When it is time to cut loss, just cut loss and do it quick!

When it is time to take profit, take it and do not be greedy hoping for more.

Having the correct trading psychology is more important than just technical knowledge such as trend lines, support and resistance, candlestick patterns, different indicators and others.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 07:13 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2018-09-01 11:29 | Report Abuse

YES THIS CONMAN TALK LIKE WARREN BUFFET....BUT PUSHING HIGHLY OVERVALUE "QUALITY STOCK" LOH....!!

REMEMBER WHATEVER "QUALITY"......THEY IS AN ISSUE OF WHAT IS THE PRICE AND VALUE U GET MAH ??

NEVER OVERPAY LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-09-01 11:36 | Report Abuse

BELOW IS A GOOD EXAMPLE HOW CONMAN 3iii TRY TO PUSH AN OVERVALUE STOCK WITH HIGH PE LOH....TO UNSUSPECTING NAIVE INVESTORS LOH....!!

FYI Dlady PE 36x at price rm 66.52 when 3iii recommend loh....!!

Posted by 3iii > Sep 1, 2018 07:43 AM | Report Abuse

Maintain MARKET PERFORM and TP of RM71.20. This is based on an unchanged 30.0x FY19E PER (at +1.0SD over the 3-year mean PER, applied across large cap F&B stocks). Although approaching our ascribed value, DLADY is expected to command the best yields amongst the large cap F&B players at 3.3%/3.7% for FY18E/FY19E while its peers only offer an average of 1.4%/1.7%.

Risks to our call include: (i) weaker-than-expected sales, (ii) higherthan-expected commodity prices, and (iii) weaker-than-expected domestic currency.

Source: Kenanga Research - 29 Aug 2018


Posted by stockraider > Sep 1, 2018 11:19 AM | Report Abuse X

YES THIS CONMAN TALK LIKE WARREN BUFFET....BUT PUSHING HIGHLY OVERVALUE "QUALITY STOCK" LOH....!!

REMEMBER WHATEVER "QUALITY"......THEY IS AN ISSUE OF WHAT IS THE PRICE AND VALUE U GET MAH ??

NEVER OVERPAY LOH....!!

Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 12:04 | Report Abuse

Best performers of Bursa Malaysia in the last decade
Read more at
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/09/01/best-performers-of-bursa-malaysia-in-the-last-decade/



Can you use Warren Buffett's strategy in Bursa safely and profitably?
http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,79284.0.html

Posted by stockraider > 2018-09-01 12:20 | Report Abuse

please read & understand the comment loh....!!

RAIDER COMMENT;
SMALL CAP ACTUALLY DID BETTER THAN BIG CAP FOR THE LAST 10 YRS LOH..!!
BURSA MKT CAP EXPANSION IS DUE TO LARGE CAP...OF COURSE LOH BCOS MKT CAP OF LARGE CAPS % IS VERY MUCH BIGGER THAN SMALL CAP THUS THEIR SHARE IS BIGGER MAH...!!
"While the growth of emerging small-cap stocks, as measured by the FBM Small Cap Index, has exceeded the surge in FBM KLCI over the last decade, the real catalyst behind Bursa Malaysia’s market cap expansion remains to be the blue chips."

YES THIS LARGE 30CAPS REPRESENTING 60% OVER THE TOTAL MKT CAPITALIZATION BUT ITS ACTUAL RETURN BASED ON % ACTUALLY MUCH LOWER THAN SMALL CAPS LOH....!!
PUT IT THIS WAY LOH....IF U BOUGHT INTO KESM AND AJINOMOTO U WILL ACTUALLY OUTPERFORM COMPARE WITH PUBLIC BANK AND NESTLE LOH...!!
To put it into context, there are currently 920 companies in the Main Market and Ace Market, providing a market cap of RM1.86 trillion. Out of this, the 30 stocks in FBM KLCI alone control a market cap of RM1.13 trillion, representing 60% of the bourse’s value.

YES THE BIG CAP GIVE THE GROWTH IN MKT CAP...BUT STELLAR PERFORMANCE IN % HIGH RETURN IS ACTUALLY SMALL CAP LOH..!!The stellar growth of Bursa Malaysia’s market value was driven by several large-caps

THIS HOW DISHONEST 3iii TRY TO MANIPULATE & CON INVESTOR....TO BUY HIS OVERVALUE STOCKS LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-09-01 12:23 | Report Abuse

SO AS A SMALL RETAIL INVESTOR....IT IS BETTER TO LOOK FOR SMALL & MID CAP CO.......THAT SHOWS POTENTIAL OF THE NEXT KESM MAH....!!

WHY DO U WANT TO INVEST IN OVERVALUE BLUECHIP, THAT HISTORICALLY HAS OUTGROWN ITS SIZE LEH ??

Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 12:31 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 12:40 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 12:42 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 12:44 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 12:47 |

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Posted by stockraider > 2018-09-01 12:52 | Report Abuse

CORRECTLOH....GO AND BUY HAPSENG WHEN IT IS UNDERVALUE AT RM 1.33B IN 9.1.2009....NOT WHEN IT IS OVERVALUE AT RM 24.5 BILLION AT 25.8.2018 LOH.....!!

DO NOT LET CONMAN 3iii MANIPULATE U TO BUY OVERVALUE STOCK LOH...!!

U SHOULD START LOOKING AT COMPANIES....THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL HAS THE CHARACTER OF HAPSENG 2009 AS IT NOW & NOT BUYING INTO ALREADY MATURE HAPSENG LOH.....!!

Posted by 3iii > Sep 1, 2018 12:47 PM | Report Abuse

Hap Seng Consolidated Bhd


09.1.2009 1.33 b
25.8.2018 24.5 b


image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png



Hap Seng is another strong performer of Bursa Malaysia in the last decade. Since its incorporation in 1976, Hap Seng has grown and now diversified into six core businesses – plantations, property investment and development, credit financing, automotive, fertilisers trading and building materials.

In 2016, Hap Seng was added to the FBM KLCI main index which tracks the performances of the 30 largest companies

Between Jan 5, 2009 and Aug 25, 2018, the stock surged by 362%, to RM9.84 per share. Its market cap is currently valued at RM24.5bil.

The company’s share base nearly tripled in the 10-year period to the current size of 2.49 billion outstanding shares. Hap Seng had a bonus issue of two bonus shares for one share in 2011.

Apart from that, the group also had a rights issue in the same year, on the basis of one rights share together with one warrant for every five Hap Seng shares held by investors.

The company regularly rewards shareholders with dividends, as it has a policy of paying out not less than 50% of profit after tax. Hence over a three-year period, dividends have been growing at a rate of 11.87%.

According to the Bloomberg figures, the company’s 12-month dividend yield stands at 3.56%.

Sabah-based tycoon Tan Sri Lau Cho Kun is the controlling shareholder of Hap Seng, with an equity interest of about 74% according to the company’s latest annual report.

Hap Seng has a PE ratio of 21.88 times.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-09-01 12:53 | Report Abuse

CORRECTLOH....GO AND BUY HARTALEGA WHEN IT IS UNDERVALUE AT RM 420M IN 9.1.2009....NOT WHEN IT IS OVERVALUE AT RM 23.41 BILLION AT 25.8.2018 LOH.....!!

DO NOT LET CONMAN 3iii MANIPULATE U TO BUY OVERVALUE STOCK LOH...!!

U SHOULD START LOOKING AT COMPANIES....THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL HAS THE CHARACTER OF HARTALEGA 2009 AS IT NOW & NOT BUYING INTO ALREADY MATURE HARTALEGA LOH.....!!

Posted by 3iii > Sep 1, 2018 12:40 PM | Report Abuse

Hartalega Holdings Bhd


Market Cap
9.1.2009 0.42 b
25.8.2018 23.41 b

image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png

In 2009, Hartalega’s market value was worth less than RM500mil and was not even among the top 100 companies of Bursa Malaysia.

However, today, the company boasts a market cap of about RM23.4bil, making Hartalega the only glove company on the top-30 FBM KLCI list.

Known as the world’s largest nitrile glove producer, the stock has seen a stellar increase from just 12 sen in Jan 5, 2009 to RM7.05 on Aug 25, 2018.

This means, a shareholder who bought Hartalega shares in the beginning of 2009, would have seen his or her funds in the company ballooned by nearly 59 times – excluding the dividends and profit gained from bonus issues.

The glovemaker has also had four rounds of bonus issue since its listing on the bourse back in 2008.

Hartalega has been consistently rewarding its investors, and has recorded a three-year dividend growth of 29.14%.

Effective financial year of 2018 (FY18), Hartalega said it will be distributing a minimum of 60% of the group’s annual net profit to shareholders, up from its previous policy to distribute a minimum of 45%.

The higher return to shareholders was mainly due to Hartalega’s strong growth in both top line and bottom line.

The company, which has a PE ratio of 50.14 times, has doubled its size from a revenue of RM1.1bil in FY15 to RM2.4bil in FY18.

According to its FY18 annual report, Hartalega’s single largest shareholder is its founder and executive chairman Kuan Kam Hon, who owns a stake of 50.47%

Posted by anticonman > 2018-09-01 12:57 | Report Abuse

Agree 3iii conman. How can ask people buy all ctrs high-high for him to gain? Eg promote Nestle 147-160, D Lady 66-70 or Hap Seng 9.83 say cheap? This is conman work.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 13:24 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 13:29 |

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Posted by Alex™ > 2018-09-01 13:33 | Report Abuse

nestle PE > 50 d, can I buy?

Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 13:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 13:50 | Report Abuse

Fraser & Neave
Market Cap
09.1.2009 3.19 b
25.8.2018 14.02 b


Petronas Dagangan
Market Cap
09.1.2009 7.25 b
25.8.2018 26.51 b


Petronas Gas
Market Cap
09.1.2009 19.49 b
25.8.2018 36.6 b

Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 13:51 | Report Abuse

https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2018/08/warren-buffett-says-im-buying-stocks.html


Warren Buffett Says, "I'm Buying Stocks".

@1.00 min to 1.39 min

I am buying stock and I am not buying because I think the stock is going up next year.

I am buying because I think the stock will be worth a bit more money 10 or 20 years from now.

I don't know whether they are going to go up or down tomorrow, next week, next month or next year.

I do know good business is, in relation .... you have to measure investments in relation to each other.... and the alternative for most people it is fixed income and you get 3.02% or something like that for 30 years.

So, would you be better to invest in a company that is earning 15 to 20% on the invested capital and compound it or have a 3% bond which can never earn more than 3% while you own it?

Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 13:58 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2018-09-01 14:11 | Report Abuse

these are past growth stock, now saturated loh....it is overvalue loh...if u buy 10 yrs ago ....then u get good return...but if u buy now u r looking for stagnation....bcos it is overvalue now loh...!!

The correct approach is start looking for new growth stock mah...!!

Never overpay loh.....!!

Posted by 3iii > Sep 1, 2018 01:58 PM | Report Abuse

Hartalega Holdings Bhd
Market Cap
9.1.2009 0.42 b
25.8.2018 23.41 b


Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd
Market Cap
09.1.2009 0.25 b
25.8.2018 18.78 b


Top Glove Corp Bhd
Market Cap
09.1.2009 1.1 b
25.8.2018 13.83 b


Hap Seng Consolidated Bhd
Market Cap
09.1.2009 1.33 b
25.8.2018 24.5 b


Public Bank Bhd
Market Cap
09.1.2009 31.33 b
25.8.2018 96.67 b


Nestle (M) Bhd
Market Cap
09.1.2009 6.39 b
25.8.2018 34.59 b


Tenaga Nasional Bhd
Market Cap
09.1.2009 27.09 b
25.8.2018 89.15 b


Fraser & Neave
Market Cap
09.1.2009 3.19 b
25.8.2018 14.02 b


Petronas Dagangan
Market Cap
09.1.2009 7.25 b
25.8.2018 26.51 b


Petronas Gas
Market Cap
09.1.2009 19.49 b
25.8.2018 36.6 b

I own 8 of these 10 stocks in my portfolio for many years.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 16:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2018-09-01 16:43 | Report Abuse

How does this info help u to make monies & select good stock leh ??
None loh, mkt cap does not help u in selecting napshot mkt beating stock loh....it is useless loh....!!

Uselah...Margin of safety based on B Graham & warren buffet based on growth to select world beating long term growth mah.....!!

Look at its cashflow, balance sheet and earnings growth and their business prospect loh....!!

Posted by 3iii > Sep 1, 2018 04:33 PM | Report Abuse

<<<< There are currently 920 companies in the Main Market and Ace Market, providing a market cap of RM1.86 trillion.

1. Out of this, the 30 stocks in FBM KLCI alone control a market cap of RM1.13 trillion, representing 60% of the bourse’s value. >>>>


1. 30 stocks control market cap of RM 1.13 trillion or RM 1,130 billion.

The average market cap of each KLCI component stock is about RM 37.7 billion.

Stock Mkt Cap (b)

MAYBANK 98.178
PBBANK 87.426
TENAGA 80.971
PCHEM 67.52
CIMB 49.732
IHH 49.385
MAXIS 40.725
HLBANK 39.452
SIMEPLT 35.772
AXIATA 34.841
NESTLE 34.612
PETGAS 33.48
DIGI 32.5
GENTING 32.022
GENM 28.503
IOICORP 27.526
MISC 26.426
KLK 25.876
PETDAG 24.638
HAPSENG 24.15
PPB 23.26
RHBBANK 20.732
HLFG 19.944
SIME 15.982
PMETAL 15.707
KLCC 13.757
TM 12.777
YTL 12.438
AMBANK 11.273
ASTRO 8.499

Total 1028.104

The top 3 counters constitute 25% of the total market cap.


2. The other 890 counters (920- 30) contributes to RM 452 billion of the market cap.

Therefore, each counter is about RM 507 million in market cap.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 18:14 | Report Abuse

>>>>Posted by stockraider > Sep 1, 2018 04:43 PM | Report Abuse

How does this info help u to make monies & select good stock leh ??
None loh, mkt cap does not help u in selecting napshot mkt beating stock loh....it is useless loh....!!
<<<<



This is a piece of market information.

It will come in useful.

How do you use this information?

Well, I have been tracking the whole market cap, PE, ROE and DY for years already.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-09-01 18:18 | Report Abuse

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2018/07/klse-market-pe-1884.html?m=0


Market PE