CHIN WELL HOLDINGS BHD
KLSE (MYR): CHINWEL (5007)
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Last Price
0.98
Today's Change
+0.01 (1.03%)
Day's Change
0.975 - 1.00
Trading Volume
7,000
Analysis
Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 50 of 2,599 comments
CHINWEL is a highly cyclical counter. Last quarter was the second time to have earnings loss. In Q4/2020, also another big earnings loss. Near term this business faces tough times and it could take a few months to 1-2 years to improve. Cash is no problem for this company, investors need to have patience. I am patiently waiting for lower than RM1.28 price to add.
2023-07-01 10:54
I believe an opportunity to collect is coming again. Q3/23 EPS of -0.01 is disappointing to dividend investors. If Q4/23 EPS is say 2-3 sen, dividend will only be 0.8-1.2 sen which will disappoint many investors. That's the time to queue to buy at low price.
This stock is great to accumulate at low price because of its Net Cash position. Valuation is very undemanding at 0.6 x P/B (including cash; excluding cash even smaller). It is also undemaning from PE perspective, with nearly 57 sen in cash i.e. business sold at say 1.37-0.57 = 0.80. It's long term EPS (say average 8 years) is at least 16 sen, suggesting if you are prepared to own this business for 8 years and get 16 sen, it's PE is only 5 i.e. long term earnings yield of 20% and long term dividend yield of 8%.
However, market is fickled and along the way, will push this counter price up much higher and push it down much higher, giving rise to trading.
This is a counter where if one believes in its fundamental business, a low price is time to accumulate and hold and sell when the counter price rises.
However, around this time, the charts are showing higher than normal risk, as it fails to recapture the uptrend line i.e. more than 50% chance, more downtrend to come.
However, as I bought low and I'm a long term investor, lower price to me is just good reason to accumulate more.
2023-07-30 11:21
And this counter always reward shareholders. Always pay 40% 2 quarter earnings. In bad times, it dips into its cash chest and floors negative earnings. I think 40% is a bit too low, it could easily raise this to 50% and when it does this one day, the stock will re-rate upwards. Still with its business generating 20% long term earnings yield, I am not complaining.
Analysts tend to be too short term - if you follow their call, you'll be doing the opposite of what you should be doing. If you look at say Public Bank analyst call, when price is high, they tell you to buy, and when price is lower, they tell you to hold. This doesn't make sense if the business is sound fundamentally and management reward shareholders consistently. In this type of rare stocks, you do better buying low and selling high.
2023-07-30 11:25
And look at the stock price over past 20 years. A clear trading range emerges. The low floor is around 80-90 sen. The high ceiling is around RM2. Anytime any analyst tells your their target price is higher than RM2, you can ignore and laugh. Anytime analyst tell you to sell below RM1, you can ignore and accumulate. The 20 year price action is the KING that guides you on when to buy and when to sell, because the underlying business of this counter, the industry it's in, is cyclical.
2023-07-30 11:33
@DividendGuy67 Well said sir. A true long term investor will love this company. Good management, excellent balance sheet and good dividend. I've been accumulating this counter for a very long time, hoping to accumulate more when it goes down.
2023-08-16 16:00
no good news to trigger market sentiment...hopefully coming qr will have improvement...
2023-11-07 12:45
Witness something suspicious today. Seems like someone deliberately driving down share price. The timing of selling is within split seconds, it's like being manipulated by AI. Something fishy is going on here... is there anyone could shine a light on it?
2023-11-23 17:06
The current economy is not good, it's normal for share price to go down. But at that time, it's so weird everything happens within split seconds and the share volume done was also in some sort of sequence... just curious on that haha.. I don't mind the share price going down as I am a long term investor, going down actually a good thing for me to buy more.
2023-11-29 22:43
Dedication towards CBAM. https://solarquarter.com/2023/12/23/totalenergies-eneos-wraps-up-6-mwp-solar-rooftop-venture-for-chin-well-fasteners-in-vietnam/
2024-01-02 15:04
Based on my observation from last week until today, it looks like someone is unloading shares, deliberately driving the share price lower. Maybe it's insider knowing current QR isn't good. Current selling pressure is high.
2024-02-27 15:19
Manufacturing has been very bad @ Q4 2023. Well at least it didn't report substantial lost like TONGHER.
2024-02-27 18:38
This TA really funny buy call 1.41 few months ago and sell call 1.11 now...change opinion like changing shirts...better make our own research and judgement...
2024-03-22 16:33
Never trust any of the analyst reports out there. They are always here to manipulate. Sometimes they've been asked to write this report just to let the big whale accumulate. When the share price rises, they ask you to buy. So that the big whale can sell their shares to you. Current economy isn't good that's why the share price dropped, it is just simple as that. Anyone who is doing business knows it's hard now. Company's fundamental is still very strong. If it dropped further means more discount and just collect. Just my personal opinion.
2024-03-23 08:09
@DividendGuy67 Good writing! I would like to add on the 62M freehold land. Freehold land will only add value over time. At current valuation of 62M, it is at a combined average value of approx. RM12 per sqft. Over the years, I think it can be easily disposed at RM30 to RM40 per sqft or perhaps even more (if they were to dispose the land). If complete disposal, I think shareholders will get quite amount of dividends at 40% payout.
2024-04-08 12:52
I previously blogged on CHINWEL near 1.18 where I said it was trading near accumulation zone, and important to get a full position in a diversified portfolio. I just posted an update today.
If you use daily charts for trading, you may find that it's coming up to a potential resistance at 1.34 (which for the record, I ignore because I don't use daily charts, but monthly charts)
You can read about it in my blog here in i3. No rush, not keen for a fast win, more expecting many zig zags both up and down on its way to around 1.68 to 1.8 to 2.3 zone (not sure exactly where but we'll see). It could take longer than 1, 2, 3 years to get there.
2024-05-18 11:07
Tomorrow Merdeka let management relax a bit...for me flat growth of revenue and profit is ok as long don't announce losses qr...
2 months ago
Bought back the Chin Well I SOLD on 13th Jan '22...for $1.03 last week to get the dividend. Also recommended to paying clients, of course!😉
2 months ago
What a joke same fate as CJCENTURY 7117 abang adik company name start with C...In Hokkien means mati mampus la...
13 hours ago
Q1, 2025 Revenue showing good traction both yoy (+26.4%) and qoq (+11.6%); and would have been a profitable quarter if not because of the RM7.5 million FOREX loss hit; total cash holdings remain strong at RM195 million or 50 cents per share; and current traded share price of 97 cents is less than half of its NAV or RM2.20 .. next quarter should see a writeback on some of the FOREX loss provision as USD:RM exchange has swing back from 4.10 to 4.40 .. not so bad after digesting the details ya ...
8 hours ago
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
dompeilee
Bought in 2016, SOLD in the 1.80s in '17. Bought back @ 1.39 in '20...SOLD back @ 1.48 in '22, a bit too early as it turns out....Avoiding for now...
Most counters cannot invest for long-term...better to trade in & out.
2023-05-29 17:23