Posted by sheldon > 2020-02-14 15:14 | Report Abuse

I feel the earth move under my feet!

Posted by Outliar > 2020-02-14 15:24 | Report Abuse

Choivo's recent timing has been impeccable

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-15 15:54 | Report Abuse

Can i advice U ??

I agree with sslee after much due diligence ,that HRC is not forthright in its dealing, operations and disclosures, thats why capex way exceeded budget and profitably fell short of target loh..!!

Current price Rm 3.88 looks cheap, but better join brother Jon Choivo buy Petron mah...!!

Yes u pay more premium for Petron, but u r paying for a better manage company, stronger balance sheet, better dividend & profit and u r buying into a more balance company with Petrol station & refinery mah...!!

I think Petron may can even give a very good run for the money against PETDAG and SHELL, as Petron being no 3 boys has gained mkt share with the latest record of 21% mkt share mah !

U r safer with Petron Petrol station and Refinery compare to pure Hengyuan Refinery loh...!!

For those hoping Hengyuan can get back to Rm 19.00, i think u should put your dream in Petron better mah...!!

Posted by pang72 > Feb 14, 2020 5:24 PM | Report Abuse

Why Eveeyone grab on rm19 but nobody grab in rm3 88?

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-02-15 16:37 | Report Abuse

Guess who's backkk

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-02-15 17:07 | Report Abuse

petronm major customer siapa?

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-02-15 17:07 | Report Abuse

aiyo why petronm balance sheet so weak already? last time 2017 not like this. trade payable manyak oh...can pay or not?

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-02-15 17:08 | Report Abuse

oil still dropping, petronm commodity guy gooding in lock good price or not?

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-02-15 17:08 | Report Abuse

oil drop = inventory lost

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-02-15 17:09 | Report Abuse

oil drop = lower revenue

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-02-15 17:11 | Report Abuse

kantoi revolving credit, 390k burn just like that?

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-02-15 17:12 | Report Abuse

109m lawsuit appeal

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-02-15 17:12 | Report Abuse

ok la if i buy now, sell rm6 ok? i aim 20% only

Posted by LA777 > 2020-02-17 08:24 | Report Abuse

Buy Hengyuan.

Posted by Jokers2020 > 2020-02-17 08:38 | Report Abuse

Rotational play..after HY push up will come Petronm..

Posted by Panorama1 > 2020-02-17 09:39 | Report Abuse

What’s happening to Petron today ? Anybody has any news ? I have not been monitoring this counter as already maximized position in a Single counter & fully invested at average cost of below 5 :-)

Posted by Shinnzaii > 2020-02-17 09:44 | Report Abuse

Track gain from brent rise...most of the QR out by this week and next week onward...hehe

Posted by Panorama1 > 2020-02-17 10:03 | Report Abuse

It was definitely panic selling to the recent low of 4.60 due to Covid-19. Although it will not head back towards the previous high heyday price range, > 6 will be a fairer valuation in the immediate term.

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-17 12:54 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 17, 2020 12:53 PM | Report Abuse X

after commment bullshit like this, hengyuan goes up to 10+% to rm4.25.

stoneraider more likely than stockraider.

Random actions = random results

you really think you are stock god?

>>>>>>>>

stockraider Can i advice U ??

I agree with sslee after much due diligence ,that HRC is not forthright in its dealing, operations and disclosures, thats why capex way exceeded budget and profitably fell short of target loh..!!

Current price Rm 3.88 looks cheap, but better join brother Jon Choivo buy Petron mah...!!

Yes u pay more premium for Petron, but u r paying for a better manage company, stronger balance sheet, better dividend & profit and u r buying into a more balance company with Petrol station & refinery mah...!!

I think Petron may can even give a very good run for the money against PETDAG and SHELL, as Petron being no 3 boys has gained mkt share with the latest record of 21% mkt share mah !

U r safer with Petron Petrol station and Refinery compare to pure Hengyuan Refinery loh...!!

For those hoping Hengyuan can get back to Rm 19.00, i think u should put your dream in Petron better mah...!!

Posted by pang72 > Feb 14, 2020 5:24 PM | Report Abuse

Why Eveeyone grab on rm19 but nobody grab in rm3 88?
15/02/2020 3:54 PM

Posted by sheldon > 2020-02-17 15:37 | Report Abuse

The current price increase is the typical pre-quarterly results and dividend play. It could be to get punters to pick-up and then sting them with mediocre results & puny dividends or reward them with the converse.

Either way an increase in volatility.

Posted by Alex™ > 2020-02-17 15:49 | Report Abuse

5.08....auscipious number. ayam first enter hrc with this price, huat until rm19

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-17 20:27 | Report Abuse

If you're gambling on refinery cracks, i'm going to be straight here.

HENGYUAN is a far better pick. Why? Its a far shittier company.

When gambling or punting in stocks, while banking on temporary commodity price increases.

You want to pick the shittiest companies. Their earnings rise the most because of how shitty they are previously.

For recent comparisons, look at Jtiasa and TDM. Rubbish companies, but rise far faster than the best palm oil plantation co's.

https://choivocapital.com/2018/11/28/the-art-of-gambling-in-speculative-stocks/

I wrote something on this and why this is the case. You may find it useful.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-17 20:27 | Report Abuse

This mainly because most retailers also know the word PE.

Posted by Panorama1 > 2020-02-17 21:20 | Report Abuse

Agreed. Petron is definitely a better company but HY at < 3.5 was definitely too difficult to resist.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-17 21:22 | Report Abuse

For investing purposes, i digress, but lets leave it for another time.


===
Posted by Panorama1 > Feb 17, 2020 9:20 PM | Report Abuse

Agreed. Petron is definitely a better company but HY at < 3.5 was definitely too difficult to resist.

Posted by Panorama1 > 2020-02-18 09:01 | Report Abuse

Agreed. I bought HY on a speculative basis as the price < 3.5 was a good price for bottom fishing. Main & actual portfolio investment definitely skewed towards Petron.

Posted by Panorama1 > 2020-02-18 09:58 | Report Abuse

Exited HY > 4.50 :-) Bumper Harvest.

Posted by Panorama1 > 2020-02-18 13:42 | Report Abuse

Excellent QR results just announced for Petronas Gas with Special Dividends.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-18 13:48 | Report Abuse

Just so it is clear here, in case they are some who bought off my research.

I am actually expecting a small loss for Q4, from inventories being revalued at NRV. Would be happy to be proven wrong though.

Posted by sheldon > 2020-02-23 21:36 | Report Abuse

I'm expecting a fairly good Q4 based on cursory top-down analysis.

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-02-25 21:56 | Report Abuse

Beter result by petdag. Petronm wil folow?

Posted by Outliar > 2020-02-26 00:33 | Report Abuse

Not sure what you mean by better result by petdag, if it's anything to by it's probably not going to be too good

Posted by sheldon > 2020-02-27 22:35 | Report Abuse

F..up puny dividends despite fairly ok profit!! Only 18.3% of earnings.

Share price performance is bad, then they should make it up with decent dividends.

March 2020 quarterly results will be shit!

Posted by antoniomc27 > 2020-02-27 23:31 | Report Abuse

Would like to buy, but as Sheldon says, in 3 months the QR will be terrible. Should I wait then? Or 4.80 is such a bargain that I should use my bullet now?

Posted by sheldon > 2020-02-28 10:11 | Report Abuse

Balance sheet appears stronger

Some figures to ponder ...
1. Cash generated from operations = 868m

It was used to ...

2. Purchase Property, Plant & Equipment = 514m
3. Repay borrowing 260m

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-28 11:23 | Report Abuse

Interesting, results is a little better than expected.

Still i think (or hope, its hard to distinguish), that this will be the last round of massive maintenance capex for EURO5 and 4M etc.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-28 13:54 | Report Abuse

And surprise surprise.

RM4.5

Don't jinx it! I always buy significantly above the bottom.

===
Outliar Choivo's recent timing has been impeccable
14/02/2020 3:24 PM

Posted by Outliar > 2020-02-28 14:01 | Report Abuse

I did say recent, and that was 2 weeks ago ;)

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-28 20:07 | Report Abuse

Choivo, wrong again on both counts.
1. Petronm made a small profit ( not losses).
2. Petronm did not do 200 million in net profit this year. Nowhere close.

But don't worry, no one will need paying 5k for your research either. So where do you even base your research on anyway? Reading tea leaves?

>>>>>>>>>

Choivo Capital Just so it is clear here, in case they are some who bought off my research.

I am actually expecting a small loss for Q4, from inventories being revalued at NRV. Would be happy to be proven wrong though.
18/02/2020 1:48 PM

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-28 20:11 | Report Abuse

Letting you and a monkey manage my money picking stocks would probably have the same results

You sell rcecap at lows and buy it at highs.
You predict losses but you get profits.
You predict profits but hengyuan goes belly up.
You predicted 200 million in earnings, but nowhere near that.
You write huge research on how overvalued QL is, but don't notice how the revenue and profits keep growing to meet the value.

Susah la like that. How to give you money to invest?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-28 20:13 | Report Abuse

But At least he didn’t buy pchem

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-28 20:13 | Report Abuse

Oh wait, he might buy

Next week

At 4

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-28 22:55 | Report Abuse

But he follow you to Holland until crazy and topped up on lctitan.

Maybe you should write a new article on lctitan.

Lctitan part 2, how I fxxd up, cut losses and didn't tell anyone about it.

Are you still buying hong Leong with one hand behind the wheel and the other holding you phone making orders?

>>>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-01-30-story-h1457006496-_Icon_LC_Titan_Price_Collapse_Shaken_Shareholders_and_Contrarians_Scram.jsp

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-28 23:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-29 00:19 | Report Abuse

What bullshit % gain oh? You say cocksure so must follow mah, unless you are not a man if your words. I said pchem will be worth 10 in 3 years, you said cocksure sape is worth rm3 in 3 years, what are you shitting now?

You don't trust your own words?

Yes we bet fairly mah, but a gentleman must think before he talks, and when he talks he must be responsible for his words.

Will you take responsibility for your claims of sale rm3 in 3 years?

stockraider Since u like to bet so much....then we must bet fairly mah...!!

Today mkt close;
Pchem Rm 5.42 --> TP 10
SAPE rm 0.185 --> TP 3

>>>>>>>>

If u want to bet say by end of the yr 31-12-2020, which counter pchem v sape, has the highest % gain loh.....!!


Posted by stockraider > Mar 27, 2019 3:51 PM | Report Abuse

U use ur head & think lah....!!

How people can lose when Raider 3 yrs 3 mths TP Rm 3.00 and when the share price only 33 sen leh ??

U must invest long term loh....if u look at the price everyday...u sure get confuse and get panic loh...!!

Believe raider mah, bcos raider is cocksure u will sure make money in 3 yrs time mah....and not 3 mins, 3 hours , 3 days or 3 mths time loh...it is always long term 3 yrs time....u must buy & lock up loh....!!

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-29 01:32 | Report Abuse

Phillip,

I said owners earnings. Just a cursory look, because you're just not worth the effort of me to pull out a calculator, its at RM300+m

Well,i never said i was good at predicting, nor do i rely on my ability to predict short term results.

Still, i predicted a loss, and got a gain. While you predicted Rm1.2bil profit a quarter, and it showed you Rm300m.

With predictions like these, i hope i am wrong alot more consistently!

I sold RCECAP given the situation then and rebuy it subsequently at 8% more, not a big deal. Unlike you, who are so talented at buying PCHEM at a 20-30% premium, and with millions too!

Profits for HY? Never wrote about that.

Research for QL? Never wrote that either.
===
Unlike your model, Warren buffet, who is old, intelligent and humble. You are old, intellectual yet idiot, and egoistic.

Well, at least you have a RM50m margin of safety.

Unless you're really stupid and start doing drugs and start buying private jets and yatchs, you should live your remaining days in reasonable comfort.

You might be the first person i met who actually really needs a RM50m margin of safety. Anything less, and you might actually leave this world a pauper, a situation you are no stranger to.

All the best.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-29 03:40 | Report Abuse

Also, I'm fairly certain more people have lost money following your calls, vs icons this year.

But if course, like Mahathir, you are eternally blind to your own flaws.

Posted by Philip ( Icarus) > 2020-02-29 06:18 | Report Abuse

You might as well remove the xx, as judging from the way you comment on i3 forum, I could pretty much glean what was your top 10 holdings and the results today are.

As for losing on buy calls, you should be the first to know not to mix trading calls versus long term investment calls. As I already said, I never buy stocks at all time highs, but buy it when the prices were reasonable. You only start commenting when the stock overperformed then you only see pe50 and say overvalued and sell ql. It still beat a lot of your imaginary xx stocks.

If you want to compare short term picks with long term picks...

Did you not get your first 100% return from buying my pump and dump stock in PPHB? I wrote an article on it in January of 2019, where I said it was a short term pick, but still a good buy. And now you profit directly from it. No thanks needed or warranted.

As for losing money?

I myself bought and held

GKENT
QL
TOPGLOV
YINSON
STONECO:NYSE
PCHEM

which EXACTLY is losing you money? Versus the market benchmark I would say my basket is doing fine if you bought in totality last year. You can do the math. I'll wait.

But I guess you would be using specific stocks instead of portfolio. Just like Calvin tan. Chun chun calls right?

So in this case understand the specific reasons I bought the GKENT and PCHEM. Gkent completion for lrt3 is in 2024, if I buy it then I would be stupid. I'm not going to buy high and sell low like rcecap. I buy it now then when it goes up after 2024, then I sell. This is called long term investing while enjoying dividends and share buybacks every year to wait. PCHEM is the same thing for IPIC, management has already guided to end of 2019 completion, 2020 soft run, 2021 full production. Management own words. So now that the stock has dropped to ipo prices, same case: you still have dividends and a cheap share price to buy from while waiting for the long term. Dividends in the worst of times, to wait. Historically is 1.2 billion, did you think PCHEM is a super stock immune to viruses and market oversupply? But did you also think trade war will last forever? Covid-19 will morph into AIDS? So, if you "follow" my "buycall" which I never make any sell TP but only show what I bought so as to "teach" long term investing with real time data instead of just saying oh I bought this stocks in 2009.

Be fair, did you lose money or make money in totality? It you want to nitpick why warren lost money on Chevron and GE and Decker shoes or why sees candies loses money 8 month of the year?

But let's nitpick on your results. And your presumption.

>>>>>>>>

But what about your range of imaginary stocks? I wonder if warren buffet partnership ever did bullshit like this and hide vague numbers with xx as his returns. He would never have gotten a single investor on board buffet partnership. If you want to be like warren, do it rationally. Turn imaginary investing into trackable results. Otherwise don't even put that garbage basket of % stocks and assume people should care.

Perhaps it is good you started another business, as you do not seem to be cut out for investing. You don't have the rationality for it.

You are like the opposite spectrum of Calvin tan. Same number of research articles, so many weird assumptions and academia versus qualitative application, horrible results in totality. But chun chun comments all the same.

But for being so good at commenting at others, what is your performance? Only you know la.

The Present Portfolio of bullshit imaginary stocks
Company Name Percentage
XX 22.11%
XX 16.81%
XX 10.59%
XX 7.20%
XX 5.38%
XX 4.44%
XX 3.78%
XX 3.42%
XX 3.24%
XX 2.99%
XX 2.06%
XX 2.02%
XX 1.77%
XX 1.75%
XX 1.75%
XX 1.70%
XX 1.42%
XX 1.32%
XX 1.20%
XX 1.09%
XX 1.05%
XX 1.00%
XX 0.97%
XX 0.93%
XX 0.89%
XX 0.89%
XX 0.80%
XX 0.63%
XX 0.60%
XX 0.50%
MARGIN LOAN (11.92)%
CASH 7.60%
TOTAL 100%

Posted by mf > 2020-02-29 06:21 | Report Abuse

Dow Jones 25,409.359 -357.28 1.39%

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-29 15:06 | Report Abuse

Phillip,

You should try calming down a little, you incoherence is incredible when you're mad. Which is always, given the size of your ego.

PPHB was not a pick from you, it was from Yeong Sheng Tey.

http://www.sharetisfy.com/2017/12/pphb-8273-annual-letter-2017.html

Having said that, i give credit where some are due.

I initiated my study of PCHEM, liked what i saw in terms of the business economics (not the management, which is mediocre), considered it a abit overvalued.

However, i guess, deep down i was influenced by the fact you bought it, and figure it should be ok and bought a 1% position. Thankfully, i did not buy much more than that.

Which will allow me to buy much more at RM4-RM5.


====

No need to twist left and right.

Just open your shared portfolio. Lifetime is gain or loss?

Looks like a loss to me.

It started since 1 Jan 2019. I'll give you benefit of doubt as to whether that's you're actual buy or sell. But it does not change the fact that is your performance for the last 14 months.

Now, whether or not it will perform well for the next 10-20 years, well, i have no comments. i like 2 of the companies, but the others are too rich for me.

At the end of the day price matters.

However, its always better to overpay somewhat for a great company, that to buy a mediocre company cheaply.

Whether or not you overpaid QL and YINSON by too much, is another question, which i do not have the answer, but based on the balance of probabilities, i would think so.

Not my RM50M though.

Just make sure you keep your ego and arrogance to your comments and public conduct, and out of your investment analysis, and you should do fine.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-29 15:16 | Report Abuse

As for stoneco, i bought too, at around USD20.

Before you arrogantly say its your call (given the size of your ego), based off research you copy and pasted from Seekingalpha, and attributed as your own.

Its Todd Combs, not yours.

You're not the only one in the world following, buffet and his team you know.

And everybody also know how to type "https://seekingalpha.com/" into google and read other people's research.

Its just that unlike you, most people are not so thick skinned as to take the research of others and post it as their own, and champion it as their own buy call.

Anyway i'm done, replying to you is a complete waste of time and effort. I would call you an internet troll, but that would be an insult to them.