Posted by sheldon > 2019-08-18 04:55 | Report Abuse

ditto

Posted by Kpin Yeoh > 2019-08-19 17:17 | Report Abuse

I am buying at almost 52 weeks low and plan to keep for 6 months to see if what is the yield for this investment. My worst plan is keep 2 years after the down turn and aim for 30% return after recession when demand come back and remember to top up a bit every 5-10% drop in share price.

Posted by untong > 2019-08-19 21:18 | Report Abuse

Concern on refining margin and low dividend payout ratio, could be preparing cash for big capex/maintenance, short term not looking good, long term uncertainty with RAPID commencing soon. They could get cheaper feedstock for their retail side but affecting their refining margin

Posted by Kpin Yeoh > 2019-08-20 12:00 | Report Abuse

Rapid will slash margin itself and kill refinery industry and make sure rapid itself make no profit. What a brilliant business model.

Posted by Kwong2018 > 2019-08-20 13:32 | Report Abuse

Closed 5:80↗ today.

Posted by enigmatic [Breaker of Speculative Investing] > 2019-08-20 14:51 | Report Abuse

seems like this QR will turn out well, judging by the market's positive reaction today

Posted by Kayme > 2019-08-20 15:07 | Report Abuse

Petrochemicals 16 Aug 2019 | 07:09 UTC Singapore

Analysis: China's faltering car sales crimp petrochemical, gasoline demand

Singapore — Chinese gasoline and petrochemical demand growth is under pressure from decelerating automobile sales that are expected to worsen this year, exacerbated by a slowing economy, and the currency and trade dispute with the US.

The slowdown threatens the margins of key petrochemical producers in China and other parts of Asia, and paves the way for a growing glut of gasoline supplies flooding regional markets, weighing down on prices and refining margins.

Chinese motor vehicle sales in the first half of 2019 plunged 14.35% year on year to 12.18 million units, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics, reigniting worries of a second consecutive year of falling sales.

China's wholesale car sales dropped 7.8% on year to 1.73 million units in June, despite retailers offering discounts of up to 30% to destock inventories of cars with old emissions standards. Sales are expected to fall 11% on year in 2019, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.

"As such, we estimate passenger vehicle wholesales will continue dropping by 13% year on year in 3Q19. The decline will likely ameliorate to -2.7% year on year in 4Q19 on the back of year-end discount offered by retailers," Platts Analytics said in its latest China oil market forecast.

"There is no sign of recovery in the Chinese car industry anytime soon amid the US-China trade war, which has extended into the currency war now," Eun Young Lee, equity research vice president, at DBS said.

The International Energy Agency said that while worldwide car sales could drop by 5% this year as the economy slows, the decline will be particularly pronounced in China, which represents a third of global car sales.

The bleak outlook for Chinese car manufacturers is having a direct impact on gasoline and petrochemical demand.

BEARISH ABS AND SBR MARKETS
"Together with a strong increase in production capacity and a general slowdown in economic activity, the sharp drop in automobile sales explains part of the difficulties currently experienced by the petrochemical sector," the IEA said in its latest monthly report.

It added that carmakers use a lot of plastic and petrochemical products, and petrochemical feedstock demand has been particularly weak in recent months, with global naphtha demand under pressure since March and LPG/ethane demand barely recovering to last year's levels.

There is a bearish impact on Asian acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) markets, both of which are used for car manufacturing, and prices have already fallen.

ABS prices hit a three-year low of $1,370/mt CFR China August 7, while prices for SBR for the 1502 grade -- commonly used in passenger vehicle tires -- also dipped to an eight-month low of $1,290/mt CFR SEA August 8, according to Platts assessments.

Should car sales dip further, ABS demand over one year could shrink by around 768,000 mt, market sources said.

Some SBR producers, such as China's Zhejiang Transfar Chemicals Group, China Shenhua Energy Co. Ltd. and Thailand's Bangkok Synthetic Co., have already announced plant maintenance shutdowns in response to the negative margins.

With July's SBR margins averaging minus $105.53/mt, basis CFR China, several SBR sources have also warned of more cuts in following months should negative margins continue.

GASOLINE EXPORTS SHRINK
Lower car sales are also stifling gasoline demand growth and worsening the already persistent domestic oversupply in China, prompting higher exports in coming months.

"China's gasoline demand growth has been on a slow decline. Year-on-year growth for 2019 is expected to be around 75,000 b/d, down 29% from the previous year," Anthony Tso, senior analyst at Platts Analytics, said.

"Dampened domestic demand may become more apparent in 2H19, which will encourage more gasoline exports, up to 400,000 b/d (approx. 1.4 million mt) on average for the rest of the year," he added.

China's gasoline exports in May and June were at a relatively low level of 848,000 mt and 998,000 mt, respectively, but analysts said exports in July and August could top 1 million mt/month, with at least one Singapore-based analyst projecting exports of 1.5 million mt.

Oil companies only consumed 42.7%, or 6.78 million mt, of their year-to-date gasoline export quotas in H1, leaving at least 9.11 million mt quota available for rest of the year, Platts data showed.

Fundamentals in the Chinese domestic gasoline market have been weak as large-scale private refineries, like the 400,000-b/d Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery have flooded the market, even as China works on a long-term shift away from internal combustion engine or ICE vehicles to electric vehicles.

Posted by yfchong > 2019-08-22 15:56 | Report Abuse

Need to check with expert on crack spread.... Can jump in or not

Posted by john0909 > 2019-08-22 17:12 | Report Abuse

@sheldon, my prediction is correct, what's the prize for me?

Posted by Kpin Yeoh > 2019-08-22 17:42 | Report Abuse

Not bad EPS at 20 cents per quarter. Petronm stock selling at steep discount 5.57 with current PE of 6.

Posted by Kpin Yeoh > 2019-08-22 17:47 | Report Abuse

I keep load up below 5.60 and will continue to hold until this sector recover. Buy and close the book.

Net Asset 6.397
PE: 6.
Debt : 0
Revenue vs market cap : 10 bil vs 1.507 bil (6.7 times)

Posted by sheldon > 2019-08-22 23:33 | Report Abuse

john0909 @sheldon, my prediction is correct, what's the prize for me?

john0909 - you're spot-on!! Was is a guesstimate? What crystal ball do you use?

Well done! I'm glad for the results as its beyond my expectation, considering that Brent fell steeply during the quarter which would adversely affect the crack spreads.

The prize is that you get the exclusive right to take me out to dinner at your expense.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-08-23 03:15 | Report Abuse

Within expectations. I expected zero profit or around there from refinery, but with profit of about 50m from retailing.

Looks about right, though the derivative gain was more than expected. All in all, pretty good q.

Posted by john0909 > 2019-08-23 09:24 | Report Abuse

@sheldon, Lol. Not just merely a guesstimate, supported with some data, hence come out with the prediction of 20-23cents eps... i will try few more quarters and see if such direction is correct/reliable or not...

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-08-23 10:43 | Report Abuse

Quite happy to be able to buy more.

I was waiting for this quarter result to fully test my thesis, and with these results i gotten the confidence level i need. Quite glad that my cost was only 1.5% extra.

Posted by sheldon > 2019-08-23 13:41 | Report Abuse

john0909 @sheldon, .... Not just merely a guesstimate, supported with some data, hence come out with the prediction of 20-23cents eps... i will try few more quarters and see if such direction is correct/reliable or not...

Interesting - let's play the game

Posted by mama1baba > 2019-08-27 21:27 | Report Abuse

Whats causing the last min crash?

Posted by AudemarsPiguet > 2019-08-27 22:19 | Report Abuse

Just read the entire forum. Looks like choivo capital is bleeding money.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-08-28 10:30 | Report Abuse

In my 2018 Update, i stated the following.


"If anything, the bearish market of 2018, and hopefully 2019 and 2020 are very good things for those such as us, who are likely to be long term buyer of stocks. It’s very simple, lower prices allow you to buy more stock.

Emotions, however, too often complicate the matter: Most people, including those who will be long term net buyers in the future, take comfort in seeing stock prices advance.

These people resemble a car driver who rejoices after the price of petrol increases, simply because his tank contains a week's supply."


I'm quite happy with the performance of PETRONM given the macroeconomic factors. If "bleeding" means lower stock prices. I'll drink to it bleeding below RM5, or RM4, or RM3, or even RM0.1, given no change in fundamentals. The moment it breaks RM3, ill pop open the champagne i've been keeping for awhile to celebrate.

The amount of shares i own for Petronm now, is only a small portion of what i intend to own throughout my lifetime.

Posted by yfchong > 2019-08-28 10:33 | Report Abuse

Can take a look at RM 5.00

Posted by Outliar > 2019-08-28 10:50 | Report Abuse

Just to remind you as well Choivo that you said the same thing for RCE Capital

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-08-30 11:43 | Report Abuse

Well, i hold the same view for RCE. Non withstanding the change in political aspect, i would be more than happy for the price to keep falling. Having said that, RCE Capital is still doing fine tbh. Or even great.

Now that the political aspect thing seems to have died down, i might buy some back. I just have better things to own.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-08-30 11:44 | Report Abuse

Id just rather buy more petronm instead of rcecap at this price. Or more of the other HK stocks.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-08-30 15:38 | Report Abuse

i have been busy collecting stocks, albeit cautiously though it didn't prevent it from going lower and lower from my purchase price. lol

what have you been buying, Jon?

Posted by enigmatic [Breaker of Speculative Investing] > 2019-09-07 22:09 | Report Abuse

I've always had faith in FA, but now I'm kinda inclined to TA. Anyone who had bought Petronm before Aug 2019 would've lost money due to the strong downtrend and weakening earnings.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-09-13 09:44 | Report Abuse

Fabien,

I wonder why did i not rebuy magnitech at Rm4.5. Till today i feel blur.

I bought more Aeoncr. Topped up airasia, lctitan, and pchem. Studying more on foreign stocks now.

Posted by RainT > 2019-09-18 11:16 | Report Abuse

this CHOIVO still tak habis habis with PETRONM

Posted by KooSan > 2019-09-19 10:17 | Report Abuse

Change to Heng Yuan. Petron is no match

Posted by skyea > 2019-09-27 16:47 | Report Abuse

do u all know currently petronm is spending alot in building a jetty and a hydrotreater and some pipelines and storage tanks. once these are completed, u still have to watchout for additional depreciation costs for a few years, b4 you will even see rising profits and share price. and its not like fuel demand will shoot up all of a sudden during this period. i think by that time mega recession already lor. wat trough, if petron corp MGO and delist , u want to revenge also cannot. for the stubborn ones, u all think carefully lah

Posted by TakeProfits > 2019-10-01 00:23 | Report Abuse

Choivo don't know gone where!? Probably looking at all.his paper lossess. Wonder whether choivo still favour Petron and Hengyuan and Rcecap! Hey Choivo where are you. Hehe kikiki

Posted by 7300 > 2019-10-01 16:28 | Report Abuse

satu kali bli, ...bingkai kucing lompat mau lari ,nanti hali hali mau hanya rugi

Posted by ivanlau > 2019-10-01 21:06 | Report Abuse

government will no more subsidy ron 95 in the near future. ron 95 will floating follow the actual market price. Believed it will be good news for Petronm

Posted by Jonathan Choi > 2019-10-02 10:31 | Report Abuse

Takeprofits:

Never been better. If not for some foreign stocks being unduly cheap, i might actually buy more.

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2019-10-05 01:19 | Report Abuse

drop b rm2? omg

Posted by value88 > 2019-10-07 10:18 | Report Abuse

Bought some Petronm this morning.

Posted by value88 > 2019-10-07 10:19 | Report Abuse

The worst crack spread happened in Jan'19, although the crack spread in Q2 & Q3 were still low but higher than Jan'19. In other words, the worst of crack spread should be over.
At current price level, I suppose the downside is limited.

Posted by value88 > 2019-10-07 10:21 | Report Abuse

The upside can be large if there is a surge of oil price due to middle east tension, or recovery in crack spread which is kind of hard to predict.
At present low crack spread environment, Petronm is selling at low PE multiple.

Posted by enigmatic [Breaker of Speculative Investing] > 2019-10-07 22:22 | Report Abuse

( EPS: 84.20, P/E: 5.97 )
But the bleeding continues

Posted by Outliar > 2019-10-10 00:36 | Report Abuse

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/10-Oil-How-Far-Could-Oil-Prices-Fall-If-We-See-A-2009-Style-Crash.html

Posted by soccerking82 > 2019-10-10 13:21 | Report Abuse

where can find those crack spread data ?

Posted by sheldon > 2019-10-10 14:50 | Report Abuse

Below 5!! a threshold I never thought it could ever cross

Posted by ivanlau > 2019-10-10 16:22 | Report Abuse

super undervalue stock..............

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-10-10 17:05 | Report Abuse

on what basis you think it's super undervalued?

Posted by Stevecheahsw > 2019-10-17 01:32 | Report Abuse

5.00 very very cheap !!

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-10-17 21:35 | Report Abuse

I increased my stake by 10% ytd. Wondering if i should be more aggressive.

Posted by Outliar > 2019-10-17 23:25 | Report Abuse

What are the prospects of electric cars on this stock?

Posted by 7300 > 2019-10-18 00:08 | Report Abuse

downtrend just begin ,tp 3

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-10-18 10:13 | Report Abuse

Globally, electric cars are 0.4% of the total. In norway, where they are the most passionate, its 10%.

It cost more than Internal Combustion "IC" engine cars, easily 30-40%. And its carbon emission is close to equal to "IC" cars, when taking into account the production of the cars, and carbon emission for the generation of electric.

Its very unlikely it will be significant in Malaysia, an oil producing country, with zero supercharging network.

In any event, i increased another 10% today.

Posted by Outliar > 2019-10-18 10:18 | Report Abuse

I don’t see any purchases of this stock today, how could you have increased by 10%?

Posted by Outliar > 2019-10-18 10:20 | Report Abuse

And ignoring electric cars, what about flying cars?