Posted by dompeilee > 2019-12-24 11:31 | Report Abuse

Bought some Petron @ 5.06

Posted by gemfinder > 2019-12-30 13:42 | Report Abuse

add petronm 5.10

Posted by gemfinder > 2019-12-30 22:03 | Report Abuse

Worse,is over

Posted by George Leong > 2019-12-30 22:45 | Report Abuse

Added some too :)

Posted by Equityengineer > 2019-12-31 20:03 | Report Abuse

Added today and that makes average price of 5.07 now. let see on 31st Dec 2020...

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-01-03 13:22 | Report Abuse

Increased my position size by another 6%. Now its above 20% of portfolio.

happy new year everyone.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2020-01-03 14:14 | Report Abuse

admire your confidence on Petronm

Posted by Equityengineer > 2020-01-03 14:46 | Report Abuse

PETRON should be rm6 at least , from there the EPS will determine it shoot up.

My 3rd entry in Peton in last 5 years. So far it become my best performer, hope it does this year .

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-01-03 14:50 | Report Abuse

oil px up recently... so got stock holding gain

Posted by George Leong > 2020-01-03 17:40 | Report Abuse

Looking at stockholding gain and better crack spread margins. Might see a recurrence of 2017 :)

Posted by sheldon > 2020-01-03 21:06 | Report Abuse

The guessing game for the 4th qtr 2019 earnings ...

A Loss
B 0 - 50m
C 51 - 100m
D - > 100m

I hate to count the chickens before they hatch or be too optimistic but think this time, we could exceed 100m - D

I'll be damn disappointed if it falls below my expectations. Hoping for the best.

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-01-03 21:34 | Report Abuse

I guess c

Posted by Panorama1 > 2020-01-06 09:18 | Report Abuse

https://youtu.be/ZFbmJaGFEJU
Nunc Aut Nunquam :-)

Posted by sheldon > 2020-01-06 11:14 | Report Abuse

A minor erection but whether it's sustainable

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-01-06 11:19 | Report Abuse

Oil price went up Oct to Dec, but price of finished goods may not necessarily increase in tandem, or higher.

When it comes to predicting quarters its hard to say, unless you know the exact spread movements.

===
Posted by sheldon > Jan 3, 2020 9:06 PM | Report Abuse

The guessing game for the 4th qtr 2019 earnings ...

A Loss
B 0 - 50m
C 51 - 100m
D - > 100m

I hate to count the chickens before they hatch or be too optimistic but think this time, we could exceed 100m - D

I'll be damn disappointed if it falls below my expectations. Hoping for the best.

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-01-06 12:17 | Report Abuse

yes yes yes

Posted by john0909 > 2020-01-06 13:47 | Report Abuse

@sheldon, realistically speaking, to be honest, expecting an exceed of 100m (means 37cents of EPS) is abit of over optimistic for me... at least from my data generally it is not that impressive yet to make a net profit of >100mil... again i do really wish that i'm wrong and you were right though...

Posted by Equityengineer > 2020-01-06 14:02 | Report Abuse

Seems moving up in tandem with oil counters. Let’s stop at 6 before QR

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-01-06 14:04 | Report Abuse

rm6 is achievable

Posted by Equityengineer > 2020-01-06 15:00 | Report Abuse

Need to go back to over 30 cents eps next 2-3 q then chances price will double . Any take on dividend this year ?

Posted by sheldon > 2020-01-06 15:12 | Report Abuse

So Choivo Capital & john0909 - what're your respective answers?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-01-06 15:31 | Report Abuse

No idea, beyond it should make 200m or so owners earnings (normalized downwards) this year.

Posted by sheldon > 2020-01-06 16:30 | Report Abuse

Actually it's bad luck to predict lofty targets.

Also lofty targets make it easier to perform below expectations causing a disappointment.

Posted by PH_1_term > 2020-01-16 22:49 | Report Abuse

Petrol RM 1.5 why must cheat before GE14?

Posted by sheldon > 2020-01-31 16:47 | Report Abuse

Limbo rock - How poor can we go

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-01-31 17:32 | Report Abuse

Well, here's to hoping it drops to 4.

As the size is too big for me, that only around that price would i be willing to buy more.

Posted by Panorama1 > 2020-01-31 20:52 | Report Abuse

Stay Calm, Stay Invested. This unexpected 2019-nCoV pandemic is creating a sea of red for all equities markets.

Posted by sheldon > 2020-02-01 04:50 | Report Abuse

Choivo Capital Well, here's to hoping it drops to 4....

Likewise - looks like our natural risk management instinct of diversification kicks in

Posted by Outliar > 2020-02-03 16:00 | Report Abuse

Added at 4.61 :)

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-03 18:58 | Report Abuse

Choivo I find you a waste of time with your sarcasm.

How about this? I am willing to bet that your petronm will not hit 200 million in earnings for this year. As I am sure that you don't know anything about your analysis on petronm, I am willing to give you a heads up.

If I am wrong I will write whatever you want me to write. I will give you my revised honest intrinsic valuation for ql.

If you are wrong and petronm does not hit 200m in earnings this year, you will write whatever I ask you to write.

Deal?

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-02-03 19:42 | Report Abuse

Badly hit

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-05 16:39 | Report Abuse

Phillip,

Do you mean 2019 ?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-01-27-story-h1482933261-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_Really_Understanding_Owners_Earnings.jsp

On owners earnings basis as described above, i'm relatively confident.

However, whatever you want me to write, well, you're going to need to be specific. Hard to do a cost benefit analysis otherwise.

Posted by sheldon > 2020-02-06 14:34 | Report Abuse

Earnings for 3 quarters to Sep is 148m++. Given the favorable slight uptrend of crude from Oct - Dec 2019 & on the basis that there was no hedging, I believe Petron could register about 50m, bringing the total for the year to about 200m

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-10 14:17 | Report Abuse

No, last q will be a loss.

The inventory needs to be valued at Net Realisable Value in the audited accounts. Given the drop in value for oil over the last month.

Assuming they hedge their usual, accounting for hedges you will be looking at a 70M inventory loss or so.

If for some reason the hedge is not valued using NRV and inventory is, it would be in excess of RM100m inventory loss.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-10 16:57 | Report Abuse

Dear Choivo,
Refer:
https://ringgitplus.com/en/blog/petrol-credit-card/petrol-price-malaysia-live-updates-ron95-ron97-diesel.html
If you look into Ron97 government weekly fixed price for month Oct, Nov, Dec 2019 (RM 2.79 to 2.60 to 2.67 to 2.68 to 2.59 to 2.56 to 2.57 to 2.70 to 2.66 to 2.64 to 2.58 to 2.63) I think Petron Q4 2019 refinery should be positive.

But Q1 2020 so far Ron97 continues dropping from (RM 2.65 to 2.62 to 2.53 to 2.49 to 2.41 to 2.34) Refinery should report loss due to stocks inventory losses.

Thank you
P/S: Petron report a loss of RM 25.545 million Q4 2018 when Ron97 monthly fixed price Oct: Nov: Dec 2018 (RM 2.79: RM 2.81: RM 2.50)

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-10 17:02 | Report Abuse

It is time to move on from refinery stocks loh...!!

Petron had not embark into Euro 4 & 5 upgrades...that will cost at least Rm 1.5b loh....!!

Very costly mah...!!

Posted by Sslee > Feb 10, 2020 4:57 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Choivo,
Refer:
https://ringgitplus.com/en/blog/petrol-credit-card/petrol-price-malays...
If you look into Ron97 government weekly fixed price for month Oct, Nov, Dec 2019 (RM 2.79 to 2.60 to 2.67 to 2.68 to 2.59 to 2.56 to 2.57 to 2.70 to 2.66 to 2.64 to 2.58 to 2.63) I think Petron Q4 2019 refinery should be positive.

But Q1 2020 so far Ron97 continues dropping from (RM 2.65 to 2.62 to 2.53 to 2.49 to 2.41 to 2.34) Refinery should report loss due to stocks inventory losses.

Thank you
P/S: Petron report a loss of RM 25.545 million Q4 2018 when Ron97 monthly fixed price Oct: Nov: Dec 2018 (RM 2.79: RM 2.81: RM 2.50)

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-10 17:31 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha stockraider,
The Nov to Dec 2019 crack spread is abot usd 6 .

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-10 18:24 | Report Abuse

sslee,

At the end of the year audit, one of the test that auditors do for inventories, is to see if it is held at book at Lower of NRV or cost.

Typically, its best practice to use the latest price.

So in this case, if they are to use the prices as at today to value the dec inventory, there will be an inventory loss.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-10 18:27 | Report Abuse

EURO4m and Euro 5 will be done by this year. Most of the capex spent. Including typical capex works, next year capex probably 200m round there bah.

===
stockraider It is time to move on from refinery stocks loh...!!

Petron had not embark into Euro 4 & 5 upgrades...that will cost at least Rm 1.5b loh....!!

Very costly mah...!!

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-10 19:26 | Report Abuse

Dear Choivo,
Stock take is at 31th Dec 2019. And the price at 31th Dec 2019 is the inventory unit price to calculate the inventory value at financial end 31th Dec 2019.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-10 22:20 | Report Abuse

Haha, i have feeling this is not the case. Especially since the price of fuel dropped by 20%. It would no longer be true & fair.

Maybe things have changed since i stopped being an auditor 2 years ago. Or the audit partner for this job is ok with that.

===
Dear Choivo,
Stock take is at 31th Dec 2019. And the price at 31th Dec 2019 is the inventory unit price to calculate the inventory value at financial end 31th Dec 2019.

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-10 22:23 | Report Abuse

Rm 200m for Euro 4 & 5 conversion too little mah....!!

Expect capex of rm 1.5b min to comply with regulation loh...!!

Posted by Choivo Capital > Feb 10, 2020 6:27 PM | Report Abuse

EURO4m and Euro 5 will be done by this year. Most of the capex spent. Including typical capex works, next year capex probably 200m round there bah.

===
stockraider It is time to move on from refinery stocks loh...!!

Petron had not embark into Euro 4 & 5 upgrades...that will cost at least Rm 1.5b loh....!!

Very costly mah...!!

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-10 22:29 | Report Abuse

Haha
This is what auditor told me how they get quarter open stock value and closing stock value. At stock cut day and those purchase contract for and on shipment also consider as stock.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-10 22:37 | Report Abuse

Read properly raider.

They spend quite abit over the last 2-3 years d.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-10 23:28 | Report Abuse

Dear Stockraider,
https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Minutes-of-the-60th-Annual-General-Meeting-of-Petron-Malaysia-Refining-Marketing-Bhd-June-13-2019.pdf
The total amount would be about USD120 million for the whole diesel hydro-treater project and approximately USD60 million for the marine/jetty facility. The amount allocated for the refinery upgradeis approximately RM500 million for 2019. Of this,a substantial part will go to the diesel hydro-treater project.Another major project that is also being managed in parallel at the refinery is the new jetty and marine pipeline project that involves upgrade ofthe marinepipeline andadditional storage tanks. With the business expansionand the need for additional importation of finished products, a new facility is requiredto ensure efficiency and reduce demurrage costs caused by shipping related delays at the current jetty.

Petron is just a pure refining using low sulfur crude where the Mogas already complied with Euro 4M. Petron only need to invest in diesel hydro-treater to meet Euro 5 diesel.

HRC with Long Residue Catalytic Cracker Unit to crack long chain to mogas and this mogas is high in sulfur. Hence HRC needs:
1. 2018 major turnaround
2. Project Atlas 2
3. Project E4M
4. Board of Directors approved an increase in funding of USD76 million for the Euro 4M upgrade Euro 5M Mogas project (“Project”), bringing the total investment to USD211 million +/- 10%.
5. USD66.40 million for the H2GEN Project
6. CAR Project is estimated at USD48 million

Thank you
P/S: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
You can check above link for crack spread. HRC breakeven crack spread is USD3 per barrel (include interest cost)

Posted by Outliar > 2020-02-10 23:45 | Report Abuse

If you’re so sure they will make a loss in the last quarter why don’t just sell and buy back agin?

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-10 23:53 | Report Abuse

Actually after carefully studying Petron left, right & center...Raider find that Choivo is right, Petron is indeed very efficient in their operations loh....!!

Petron can be a potential bluechip stock for your portfolio loh...!!

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-11 08:52 | Report Abuse

Dear Outliar,
Refer:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-02-10-story-h1483734883-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_Petron_Malaysia_Refining_Marketing_Berhad_PETRONM_3042_.jsp
What Choivo say is Petron retail profit margin is fixed by Government price mechanism except Blaze 100 EURO 4M better margin
FUEL PRICE PER LITRE 01 - 07 FEB 2020
PETRON BLAZE 100 EURO 4M: RM 2.88
PETRON BLAZE 97 EURO 4M: RM2.41
PETRON BLAZE 95 EURO 4M: RM2.08
PETRON TURBO DIESEL EURO 5: RM2.28
PETRON DIESEL MAX: 2.18

The refinery will depend on crack spread, crude oil price trend and USD to MYR exchange rate trend as this trend will result in stock/Inventory loss or gain.

For Q4 2019 I should think the result is positive. For Q1 2020 so far Stock/Inventory losses because of crude price drop and weakening of MYR against USD likely cannot cover by the crack spread margin hence refinery result is negative. The question will be how much losses suffer by refinery and can that losses cover by the retail sales guarantee profit?

Choivo is in love with the owner Ramon Ang who as the Chinese like to say "出淤泥而不染". Said in english, is represents the lotus flower which grown from the mud and yet blossoms white. As oppose to me hate the China owner of HRC. He is a crook.

Note: Petron Q4 2018 loss quarter because Oct, Nov and DEC 2018 crack spread is Oct +6 than negative for Nov and Dec.

Thank you
P/S: Choivo just want to frighten you with Q4 2019 loss quarter so that he can collect cheap cheap from you. So don’t sell cheap to him.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-11 09:33 | Report Abuse

I'm stupid that way :).

If you're not disciplined in the small things, its hard to be disciplined in the important things. Every time you do something for trading purposes, you are training that part of your brain.

Which depending on your purpose, is a good or bad thing.

Also i think its priced in?

But yeah, the straight answer is, im stupid and illogical that way.

=====
Outliar If you’re so sure they will make a loss in the last quarter why don’t just sell and buy back agin?
10/02/2020 11:45 PM

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-02-11 10:03 | Report Abuse

Well Sslee,

This is something i hope im wrong about! As i've already bought up the last of my position yesterday (just a little bit more).