Typically DKSH would try to get a gross margin of around 7% from distribution. Assuming a cost of RM150 per dose of CanSino vaccine, the company may get a gross margin of RM10.50 from distributing 1 dose of vaccine. For 1 million dose, the gross margin would be over RM10 million.
Anyway this vaccine distribution is just extra income to DKSH in this year and next. From its existing businesses, DKSH may already get about RM160-200m free cash flows or over RM1.00 per share a year. Assuming dividend payouts of 50% of free cash flows or 80% of net profit, that would be 50 sen dividend steadily every year.
For a 7.0% dividend yield, this stock should trade at RM7.00. For a 5.0% dividend yield, it should trade at RM10.00.
Rm200 million free cash inflow per annum for a 157 million shares company, if use DCF @8% over 25 years with no terminal value, the present value is about RM14 per share.. :)
Tomorrow DKSH might sustain its run given the surprise announcement regarding vaccine distribution. The core business remains profitable and shareholders will be rewarded in the short term. This is both a short and medium term play.
@MK76 last time 3.5 drop 2.9? since when u bought this? as long as the big player entered previously on 27 & 30 Aug still with us, the price will maintain 4.2 +-
@foreign_invest - last year Dec. it shoot up few time to 3.7++ and hilang steam after tat. No take profit become paper loss. Hehe. Tat time many people say dksh no good.
Morgan Stanley's Slimmons: Sees value back on the table in the next quarter. "And what I see is that value has made its way back up, but it’s still pretty cheap versus growth. Now I happen to believe that not only will value reprice back to where it normally is, but I think that the change in the tone out of the Fed could lead to a period where value outperforms growth for an extended period of time, the way it did in the ’90s."
The typical game for DKSH. Tiny trading volumes lead to big swings in share price immediately after somebody gets excited...and then it drops dead again. And the reason is that DKSH is not as well managed as some here try to make us believe. If there was a little more substance in the company, price had a chance to sustain a high base. But so it will drop to 3RM or below soon with a handful of trades a day. This stock is a good gamble every now and then, but by far not a decent investment for longer term.
Welcome back joker …… investorking2020 41 posts Posted by investorking2020 > Sep 20, 2021 6:49 PM | Report Abuse
The typical game for DKSH. Tiny trading volumes lead to big swings in share price immediately after somebody gets excited...and then it drops dead again. And the reason is that DKSH is not as well managed as some here try to make us believe. If there was a little more substance in the company, price had a chance to sustain a high base. But so it will drop to 3RM or below soon with a handful of trades a day. This stock is a good gamble every now and then, but by far not a decent investment for longer term.
No stock can keep rising forever. I did warn before that DKSH had risen too fast after the result announcement and profit taking would take place soon.
DKSH had risen for 10 days or so from RM3.00 to a peak of RM4.85 with total traded volume in excess of 15 million shares in the 2-week period. It then goes on a profit taking phase that runs into its 11th day now with about 5 million shares traded so far.
It is normal for a stock to give up 50% to 68% of the gain especially the gain was achieved within a short period of time. I see support levels at RM3.90 then stronger one at RM3.60.
Nothing has changed in its fundamentals, it is just that profit taking is flushing out weak holders who are impatient enough to hold for 2-6 months and enticed to take quick profit after the recent strong gains.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
gemfinder
6,880 posts
Posted by gemfinder > 2021-08-30 11:26 | Report Abuse
huat ahhhh . c u at rm8