Posted by mamatede > 2019-02-22 15:51 | Report Abuse

news came out Petronm has awarded contract for a new diesel plant in port Dickson. good?

Posted by isupertrader > 2019-02-22 15:52 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2019/02/22/petrol-prices-up-10-sen-diesel-remains-unchanged/

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2019-02-22 16:10 | Report Abuse

Stay calm , just be quite buy enough , market no much like petronm company . If eps is everything investing are easy everyone can suscess , market have a lot of very low PE stock ,but finally they always trade at low PE they price never up, some stock they dont have good eps but they can shoot to sky. Kekeke

Posted by Remain Calm > 2019-02-22 18:19 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/petron-awards-us132m-diesel-refining-plant-job-south-korean-petrochemical-firm

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-22 18:36 | Report Abuse

Lets make a bet.

Find me one person who identified a very low PE stock that could (and did) grow its EPS for 15% per annum for 10 years with low debt. He bought alot of it with cash and did not sell for 10 years.

If you can show me one person who did this and ended up poor, ill pay you RM10,000. If you cannot within a week, you pay me RM5,000.

There is nothing that can guarantee success in investing better than the ability to identify and buy companies with a resilient current and Growth in EPS, for a cheap price, with no leverage.

====
PotentialGhost Stay calm , just be quite buy enough , market no much like petronm company . If eps is everything investing are easy everyone can suscess , market have a lot of very low PE stock ,but finally they always trade at low PE they price never up, some stock they dont have good eps but they can shoot to sky. Kekeke
22/02/2019 16:10

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-22 18:46 | Report Abuse

I don't hedge my statements to not end up foolish. Id rather be proven foolish so i can learn quickly and save money.

I just use common sense to identify the potential outcome. I wrote many times that hedges are not perfect, and seeing how they handled previous volatility, i knew they do their hedging. But it will unlikely to be enough to cover all the inventory losses. There is no difference in effect between a small loss and a small profit. Would you guys here be ecstatic if it was a profit of Rm20m instead?

Why small profit? Well retail contributes about RM100m in gross profit per quarter, so there's a buffer there.

Hedges are insurance after all, it is the poor to the middle class that cannot bear that risk, that buy and pass it on. But you don't buy the most expensive medical plan available, even though it ensures you pay absolutely nothing if you get cancer.

Because you know its cost, and there comes a point, when the cost far exceed the value of the risk transferred on a discounted basis.

====
(S = Qr) Philip Actually qqq, Jon choivo not wrong leh. He hedged. He said either make a small lost or a small profit.

Posted by KLCI Going Heaven > 2019-02-22 18:49 | Report Abuse

Choivo boy, save your time lah. aiyoyo nobody here likes bookworm apparently. They all enjoying their time here in Casino Bursa Malaysia. Don't lah spoil the fun.

Anyway Welcome to Table 5: Petron, Please take your position before it's too late. Ding Ding

Posted by goody99 > 2019-02-22 19:05 | Report Abuse

RHB-OSK report on Petron is out. In case anyone has missed it, you can find it here:
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/349747.jsp

Posted by paperplane > 2019-02-22 21:01 | Report Abuse

8% only??

Posted by SuperPanda > 2019-02-22 21:02 | Report Abuse

in stock analysis sometimes you right and sometimes you wrong, if wrong just move on..

petronm is not the only stock you can make money or earn investment return..

live up live and have a good weekend

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-22 21:04 | Report Abuse

I don't get how you can value the intrinsic value of PETRONM to be a feasible action.

Personally, I don't think the future of refining stocks like petronm, dagangan and hengyuan to be that good. They are probably going to scrap their plan of expanding operations with that 3.5 USD billion new refining plant because of low margins and unclear results in the future on demand.

For me, I see no pricing power, no demand choice, no clear business advantage between a petron gas station versus a Petronas or Shell. I am ambivalent about which station I choose, as the price are all the same and the locations are a matter of convenience.

For petron to increase the number of service stations in the future would be foolhardy wth the returns it gets in recovering returns. The capex requirement to increase production is huge and time consuming. The scheduled/statutory shut down is a drain on the total future value of the company.

There is just no point to buying a refining stock in the long run. So personally I don't see how you can look 10 years ahead and find any reason to own PETRONM Vs a Petronas or hengyuan or whatever.

Now if petronm has a patent or be technology that can process palm oil into high grade diesel fuel that others don't have then different story la.

As it is, what kind of growth trigger can one even find to put petronm in a competitive moat position vs its peers 5-10 years from now. Lower refining costs? More efficient production? Bigger sales network? Better customer loyalty and support?

I just don't see a future where petron will be the market leader locally. Why bet long term?

Posted by SuperPanda > 2019-02-22 21:06 | Report Abuse

investment is abt capital, return and time, if you can use lower capital and less time to earn the same return within a year, why need to wait 2 yrs, 5 or 10 yrs

Posted by SuperPanda > 2019-02-22 21:08 | Report Abuse

what i mean is, just cut loss and move on.. let your capital grow at somewhere else

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2019-02-22 21:28 | Report Abuse

Why so noisy ? See what happen HSSEB . Malaysia market even company earning making lose price also can shoot up . Like just buy no like then go buy other stock. Follow philip buy PChem , follow koon koon buy Curry mee , or also can follow i3 small fish tips go holland . 90% i3 member are riding a holland boat .

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-22 21:44 | Report Abuse

Phillip,

I don't give a damn about the refinery. It's just a feed to the retail. I expect over the long term, the irr of the refinery to be at most 2-3% over the risk free rate if management is good.

You are wonderfully sharp. I suggest you study, the two kinds of government controlled business (price wise). The first is chicken, egg, onions etc. The second is power plants, petroleum, concessions, insurance, banking etc.

And why the Malaysian retail petroleum business is so different from their overseas counterparts. Its a horrifying business in most parts of the world, but not here. Why?

Posted by silom > 2019-02-22 22:04 | Report Abuse

haha , ya lor , isn't egg and chicken under price control list ? like this young lad !!

Posted by silom > 2019-02-22 22:08 | Report Abuse

last time you go petrol station just pump petrol , now got ATM there, some even got starbuck, sometime i see my friends even go petrol station take lunch, they said cheap , maybe next time got family mart ..

Posted by Sslee > 2019-02-22 22:40 | Report Abuse

Dear Choivo,
http://www.theborneopost.com/2019/01/08/margin-revision-to-benefit-petrol-station-dealers/
In a statement by Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng last Friday, the government has agreed that the margin for petrol station operators be revised to 15 sen per litre for RON95 and RON97 petrol products and 10 sen per litre for diesel products.
“This is an additional 2.81 sen per litre for petrol and three sen per litre for diesel, compared to the current rate of 12.19 sen per litre for petrol and seven sen per litre for diesel,” the statement also read.

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2019/01/08/higher-petrol-dealer-commission-neutral-on-petdags-earnings/
The rise in petrol dealer commission rates from sales of RON95 and diesel fuels is expected to have no impact on Petronas Dagangan Bhd’s (PetDag) earnings margin.
Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd noted that the impact is largely earnings neutral as PetDag’s margin remains fixed at five sen per litre and 2.25 sen per litre for motor gasoline (mogas) and diesel respectively.

I was told by Hengyuan IR that since retail price of diesel and petrol was fixed by government weekly (Controlled items) base on International price + margin for petrol station operators.
But is these only benefit independent petrol station operators or also Pertonas, Shell and Petron petrol stations. If so why Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd concluded that the impact is largely earnings neutral as PetDag’s margin remains fixed at five sen per litre and 2.25 sen per litre for motor gasoline (mogas) and diesel respectively”

Thank you

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-22 22:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by pang72 > 2019-02-22 22:48 | Report Abuse

RHB new revised TPrm5.60...

....this report placed significant impact to refinery stocks....

Posted by goody99 > 2019-02-22 23:01 | Report Abuse

at least for the next 3 QR, the result is very likely to be worse than the corresponding quarter in 2018, year-on-year, due to lower margin. I will sell high and buy low later if I were you. No reason to hold it now if the next few QR will be disappointing.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2019-02-23 06:58 | Report Abuse

with so much analysis, only one thing in bursa thats matters.. its the result.

when HY and Petron post awesome result in 2017, price shoot to the moon, and now smart people should know where it will heading to...

Posted by Kawkaw > 2019-02-23 12:38 | Report Abuse

With all those factors.. Dont forget to q buy Monday 5.60....or next week

Posted by mamatede > 2019-02-24 13:51 | Report Abuse

every know this world will soon flood with refinery and chem complex.

Posted by zoizai > 2019-02-25 09:27 | Report Abuse

Downtrend. Will continue going down

Posted by 430204813832245 > 2019-02-25 13:16 | Report Abuse

Buy

Posted by goody99 > 2019-02-25 13:40 | Report Abuse

fundamental a sell; technical also a sell

Posted by 1910982335855168 > 2019-02-25 17:00 | Report Abuse

no announcement on the dividend like they normally do, just stated in bursa website 20 sen proposed, any sifus can explain on this

Posted by zoizai > 2019-02-25 17:10 | Report Abuse

All the way to south

Posted by Remain Calm > 2019-02-25 18:16 | Report Abuse

@191098... Not so soon... Official announcement for div usually on april together wit annual report also...

Posted by Kawkaw > 2019-02-25 19:15 | Report Abuse

Comes fishing with kk at levels 5.30-5.50. Let fishing’s within sharks

Posted by Airline Bobby > 2019-02-25 20:40 | Report Abuse

Uptrend. Will continue going up

Posted by mamatede > 2019-02-26 22:38 | Report Abuse

Have friends in Petronm which says internal cost cutting everywhere and even lower capex from mother company in San Miguel from Phillipine. Life is tough, expansion this 2019 will be slowed down. buckle your seat belt

Posted by Elwyn Elwyn > 2019-02-27 01:40 | Report Abuse

Advises to all. Do not buy or use Petron Gas if you wish to live longer.

Petron Gas can explode anytime due to Petron careless on their gas tank safety features.

Thus if you are unlucky you maybe the next/following victim.

Posted by Kawkaw > 2019-02-27 10:04 | Report Abuse

Haaa..haaa...FYI oil n gas safety regulation among the bests in the line. Above finding not buying such stupid n fool. You have time to have hse walk about in any plant.

Posted by ling1224 > 2019-02-27 15:19 | Report Abuse

Start to go up today

Posted by newbie4444 > 2019-03-03 13:27 | Report Abuse

Petrol no RM 1.5 behind PH loss in Semenyih?

Posted by sheldon > 2019-03-04 12:48 | Report Abuse

If it's any comfort, Petdag quarterly profit dropped significantly from RM280m to RM47m.

Like Petron they also weathered losses on inventory.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2019-03-05 13:54 | Report Abuse

Yar, Investing takes patience. Won't be long before Petron performs well...Everybody sabar lar

Posted by sheldon > 2019-03-06 11:30 | Report Abuse

I expect the Mar 2019 results to be v good (unless they hedged their position) since dated brent has recovered from the start of the quarter at 54 to 64 today.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-14 16:41 | Report Abuse

Sheldon,

They hedged, but as usual, not in full.

Posted by SimonLee76 > 2019-03-14 17:01 | Report Abuse

Well there's another side to that argument that hedging full would come with a hefty premium. In instances that the hedging might not be use at all until it expires.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-14 17:05 | Report Abuse

Yes simon.

Think of hedging as insurance. If you're rich enough, its better if you dont have it.

But i you can't handle the risk, due to how large the outcome will be compared to your own networth, you may want to buy some.

Posted by 9share > 2019-03-19 13:53 | Report Abuse

it is rumoured that … uncle Koon slowly collecting Turbo since 2 weeks ago ! Seems like real ...

Posted by apolloang > 2019-03-19 13:55 | Report Abuse

tu boh is babi betina,why uncle koon want? hahaha

Posted by Parttimer > 2019-03-19 17:36 | Report Abuse

why we talking about Turbo here in Petron forum hahaha

Posted by villa1668 > 2019-03-22 22:03 | Report Abuse

Look like nobody interested this counter, so silent

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-22 22:13 | Report Abuse

soon very soon, patience

Posted by villa1668 > 2019-03-22 22:29 | Report Abuse

Ok, trust you this round. :)

Posted by TakeProfits > 2019-03-24 20:19 | Report Abuse

Looks like this counter koyak d...All every one and clever sifus all day becheh...dah lari away kuat kuat