Huatexpert, thanks for sharing the news on Petronas Outlook Activity 2019. Definitely good piece of news for Jack-up rigs owners. Quite a number of rig owners in Malaysia, like velesto, sapura, perisai, etc. Velesto will need to try and push out their rigs more aggressively. Appears that Sapura is more aggressive and winning many more contracts in the same field. Velesto needs to achieve rig utilization rate of 85% for it to be back in the black (at the current operating margins).
If the company gets full utilization, it can probably ngam ngam breakeven based on today's DCR, without full utilization, what do you expect? Funny is analysts still asking us to buy but their target price keeps dropping.
Posted by 888newbie > Dec 19, 2018 02:38 PM | Report Abuse
Those who are switching to Sapura should take a look at the directors pay.
absolute ridiculous pay in hundreds of million ringgit. even Genting directors and MD don't get even 10% of what these directors and MD of Sapura are getting ..I guess only the stupid people follow and buy this counter while the directors laugh all the way to the banks.
Hi Azmini, I am not a sifu here ya? Rather i am just an ordinary shareholder to Velesto trying to find out if there're any leads to this counter. I am also very concerned as you are as i invested in Velesto trusting the management to do a turnaround after the restructuring and rights issue exercise. However, my concerns starts to turn into anxiety when the price dropped to 18cents a share. Sigh... However external feelings aside, I noted their latest quarter report is showing some improvement by narrowing their losses. Another bright side is Petronas has just revealed their activity outlook for 2019 in which they may require 16-18 jack-up rigs to increase production. It is definitely going to be a positive news to Velesto. I am expecting Velesto to work harder to increase their Jack-up rigs utilization rates. The opportunity is given by Petronas now. However, looking at the price of oil now, i will imagine their future operating margin may be squeezed as well. My opinion to this is, if i am already invested (sitting on paper losses now), i must as well hold for the long term waiting for the price of oil to recover to at least USD$75-80 per barrel to see a handsome operating profits for Velesto.
Just my 2 sen thoughts, and yes, i am sitting on paper losses now.
Based on people's comments, at best velesto can only make small profit even at almost 100% utilisation rate. Mainly becos the charter rate is low at the moment. Even if oil price recover back to $70/bl, charter rates would still not rise much. Then why are investors still buying or holding to this stock? Why not look elsewhere?
In reality, this company is owned by its financiers. There is only so much PNB can do. Now the price is so cheap, PNB should be able to easily take it private. Why don't they do that? The contracts won by this company are also mostly short term. Due to that, there will always a short idling period before restarting another contract with another client. It's going to be difficult to achieve full utilization. Even a single day without revenue is a significant amount.
Formerly known as UMW Oil & Gas Corp Bhd before its rebranding in May, Velesto Energy Bhd failed to reach an expected turnaround by the end of its financial year ending Dec 31, 2018 (FY18) on lower utilisation of its rigs.
The stock was picked on expectations that its utilisation rate would register at 80% in FY18, but it had fallen to 75% in the third quarter of the year.
The group’s share price, which shot up to a one-year high of 46 sen on Jan 8, declined throughout the year to an all-time low of 17.5 sen per share on Dec 20.
The stock closed down 0.5 sen or 2.78% to 17.5 sen yesterday, leaving the group with a RM1.44 billion market value.
Although the group recorded a net profit of RM5 million in its first quarter of 2018 (1QFY18), it fell back into the red in the following two quarters, resulting in a net loss of RM32.6 million over the nine-month period ended Sept 30, 2018 (9MFY18).
Revenue has also underperformed in 9MFY18, down 2.73% to RM383.9 million versus RM394.7 million a year ago.
In October, Velesto president and executive director Rohaizad Darus told The Edge Malaysia weekly that he believes the worst is over for the company as it had cleaned up its balance sheet and is bidding for some US$500 million worth of jobs.
Analysts seem to agree as the counter is still favoured as a “buy” recommendation by five out of seven analysts with an eye on the stock. According to Bloomberg data, the consensus 12-month target price is 30 sen.
“With an improving outlook over the next 12 months, any short-term weakness in share price is an opportunity to accumulate,” said Maybank Kim Eng in a Nov 2018 report on Velesto.
Many thing have change in Dec from Nov. With lower oil price it’ll push petronas to relook at their 2019 plan. Petronas plan for 2019 is based on Brent at 66/tong.
Up? Q4 announcement coming soon. I wonder if there will be impairment again. After so much impairment year after year and debt restructuring, still having quarterly losses. I guess when the management said they will be cash flow positive, this is on the premise if they can achieve 100% utilization.
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Posted by Rowie > 2018-12-13 19:04 | Report Abuse
It's time for a rebound